UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANACi. ivIPAIGN ENGINEERING NOTICE: Return or renew all Library Matarialal.The Minimum Fee for each Lost Book is $50.00. JUN P 7 1Q0Q The person charging this material is responsible for its return to the library from which it was withdrawn on or before the Latest Date stamped below. rtd underlining of books are reasons for discipli- result in dismissal from the University. lef, 353-8400 * i. 3 * c '~ UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN saoiosmammi cct V^* 1 L161— O-1096 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://archive.org/details/energyconservati141here INFERENCE ROO UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBAN A enter for Advanced ux idui< UNIVbHbl I Y Ur ILLIINUIomi uhd/ainaa URBANA, ILLINOIS 61801 -CHAMPAIGN 2H-I CAC Document No, lUl ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS: Reports I and II by Robert Herendeen Ken Kirkpatrick. James Skelton ^v«» \\Y* ^ CAC Document No. lUl Energy Conservation in Illinois Reports I and II by Robert Herendeen Ken Kirkpatrick James Skelton Energy Research Group Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urb ana- Champaign Urbana, Illinois 6l801 December, 197^ OVERVIEW The Energy Research Group has quantified the actual energy savings from many potential energy conservation programs for the state of Illinois. In Report I (July, 197M > a wide spectrum of programs was evaluated approximately; in Report II (November, I97U), nine specific programs were evaluated in much more detail. Both of these reports are bound in this volume. Our approach was deliberately broad; we recognized that because of its pervasiveness energy can be conserved through conservation, or change in consumption patterns, of goods and services as well as of fuels. The work was performed for the Illinois Office of the Energy Coordinator on contract from the Illinois Commerce Commission. ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS: REPORT I Prepared for the Illinois Office of the Energy Coordinator Energy Research Group Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois Robert Herendeen Ken Kirkpatrick James Skelton 11 July 19lh The Energy Research Group (ERG) is carrying out research on energy conservation in Illinois for the Illinois Office of Fuel Energy Coordinator ( IQEC ) . The object is to quantify the energy that can actually be saved through various conservation schemes. The research plan involves, first, an approximate quantification of the effectiveness of many different schemes, and second, more detailed quantification for about 6 to 10 selected measures. This report (Report I) lists the results of the first step. In Report I we have computed the energy savings assuming that the specified measure has been implemented. We have not worried about whether it can be implemented, although each energy measure is, in our opinion, real- istic. We have rated energy-saving potential on a scale from A to D; the correspondence is: Symbol Energy saved (percent of present Illinois use) A 1.15 and greater B 0.U0 - l.lU C 0.15-0.39 D - O.lU The results are listed in Table 1, as described below. Energy savings - This is almost always the direct energy (e.g., the gasoline in the tank) and does not include additional indirect energy such as energy to manufacture the car. An exception is for the recycle of materials. Payout time - time for implementation, for the energy savings to be realized. These estimates are coded as follows: Time 0-3 years 3-10 years > 10 years Symbol Short (S) Medium (M) Long (L) Notes - Listings of other work, legal aspects, etc., as appropriate and known to us. State access - to be filled out by IOEC and ERG. We should make a few comments on "energy". First, energy savings are in primary resource units, and include the losses in power plants, refiner- ies, etc. Energy use in Illinois in 197*+ is estimated at k.l x 10 15 Btu/yr. This breaks down as follows: % of state use Industrial (incl agriculture) 32 Commercial (incl most of 20 state gov't ) Residential 27 Transportation 21_ 100 We have treated all types of energy equally. In some cases one may be con- cerned with fuel type as well; this is particularly important for transpor- tation (heavily dependent on petroleum) and commercial heat (gas companies are refusing to grant new hookups). Second, some of the options we list overlap (such as the effect of improving insulation or reducing thermostat settings in residences); hence one should be careful in adding the results for a total energy savings from both measures, to avoid double counting. Third, percentages are expressed in terms of the present 197^ Illi- nois energy use, even though it might take years to achieve the savings listed, at which time Illinois' energy use will be greater. We can be more careful about this question in Report II. Fourth, accuracy and availability of data varied greatly. In some cases we were unable to quantify the energy savings, but because the mea- sure was so attractive, we included it. Fifth, the impacts of some measures are beyond ERG's ability to pre- dict, either because they are so wide ranging or because they require elasticity studies. These are generally broad policy measures like chang- ing the electricity rate structure. We list these separately. Sixth, we have not worried about the savings respending question; that is, the energy impact resulting from the spending on money saved by energy conservation (What if you ride the bus, sell your car, and spend the money on a snowmobile?). 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The figures given are either for 1970 (Census) or 1972 (Merchandising Week). Saturations for most appliances are of course increasing yearly. Units per household : Takes into account the fact that a household may have more than one of a given appliance. Btu or kwh per unit per year : The energy consumed by the appliance in a year based on "typical" usage as determined by surveys con- ducted by the gas or electric industry. This figure refers to the energy actually delivered to the home and ignores losses in production, conversion, and transmission. At the point of use one kwh (kilowatt-hour) equals 3^13 BTU (British Thermal Unit). Primary BTU : Refers to the amount of energy originally extracted from the ground. It is always greater than the energy delivered to the home. If it is delivered in the form of electricity, only 0.258 of the primary energy arrives, the loss being primarily due to inefficiency inherent in electric generation. For natural gas, the figure is 0.855. Thus an electric appli- ance is typically less efficient than the same appliance using gas, when primary energy usage is examined. ASSUMPTIONS It is assumed that half the refrigerators and freezers are "frost free", and that half are 12 cubic feet and half are lU cubic feet. One thousand hours per year of air conditioner use is assumed. 20 REFERENCES A/ — 1972 Merchandising Week reports, data for Illinois. — 1970 United States Census Bureau data for Illinois. C/ — Tansil, John. Residential Consumption of Electricity 1950-1970 , Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1973. — American Gas Association data for East North Central region of United States, which includes Illinois. E/ — Electrical Energy Association nationwide averages, EEA 201-73. F/ — Estimate by staff of Energy Research Group at the Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois. — This figure of UlOO x 10 BTU/year is the median value of various esti- mates of 197^ Illinois energy from the Bureau of Mines and the Department of the Interior. H/ —3,692,000 households in Illinois as of July, 197^, according to Clyde Bridges, Illinois Department of Public Health. — Herendeen, Robert A. "An Energy Input-Output Matrix for the United States, 1963: User's Guide", Center for Advanced Computation Docu- ment No. 69, March h, 1973, University of Illinois, Urbana. ENERGY CONSERVATION IN ILLINOIS: REPORT II Prepared For The Illinois Office Of The Energy Coordinator Energy Research Group Center For Advanced Computation University Of Illinois Robert Herendeen Ken Kirkpatrick James Skelton 20 November, 197^ REPORT II TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction 1. Comparison of Insulation Standards of the Illinois Capital Development Board with Others 6 2. Review of Recent Actions in the United Spates on Utility Rate Structures, Loan Programs to Encourage Installation of Home Insulation, and Promotional Advertisement 21 3. Conservation Potential of Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings , Including Water Heating 35 h. Comparison of Energy Efficiency of Home Heating Sources hh 5. Energy Savings From Recycling A. Paper 5^ B . Aluminum C. Soft drink and beer bottles and cans 62 D . Auto hulks 68 6. Energy Savings by Modal Shifts in Passenger Transpor- tation Between Selected Illinois Cities TO 7. Energy Conservation Measures Within the Illinois State Government : A. Substitution of a Sticker System for the Present Throwaway License Plate 91 B. Use of Returnable Bottles in All Soft Drink Vending Machines in State of Illinois 91 C. Energy Saved by Considering "Life Cost" Rather Than "First Cost" of an Appliance 92 8. Energy Used/Wasted By Gas Yard Lights, Gas Pilot Lights, and Instant-on Television Sets 107 9. Review of Uses of Waste Heat From Power Plants and Coal Gasification Plants 113 Energy Conservation in Illinois: Report II. Introduction . The Energy Research Group has been quantifying the energy to "be saved through certain conservation measures in Illinois. In Report I we evaluated. approximately, the savings from many different schemes. Report II contains more detailed study on 9 specific measures, as outlined in the table of contents. Before summarizing the results, we should note several things. (These are repeated from Report I). 1. We are talking here of total Btus unless otherwise specified. We are not distinguishing between specific fuels, e.g., petroleum saved through less air traffic vs coal saved through less throwaway steel containers. 2. We are discussing energy, not peak power. The requirement for electric generating capacity is determined by peak demand. It is possible that energy-saving measures may not decrease peak demands (and vice versa). Whether we are energy limited, or capacity limited, is a volatile issue. (New York State's Public Utility Commission currently feels energy limited because of the heavy dependence on oil for electricity, as mentioned in Section 2-C. ) 3. Energy savings are listed as a percentage of Illinois total (direct and indirect) energy budget today (U.l x 10 ' Btu/year), even though the measures discussed may take years to implement, at which time Illinois' energy use will be greater. In some cases (solar heating and cooling, for example), where retro- fits are fairly unlikely and implementation will take a long time (2 decades and more), we have used a projection of energy use at that time. h. In doing this project, we have dipped into several diverse disciplines, from heating engineering to law. Sometimes we have had to spread ourselves thin; there is no substitute * R. Herendeen, K. Kirkpatrick, James Skelton "Energy Conservation in Illinois Report I", Submitted to the Illinois Office of the Energy Coordinator, 11 July, 19lh. for an expert. Many experts exist on the University of Illinois Campus, particularly in the fields of housing and coal gasifi- cation. Our discussions with them are referenced, and further contact directly would be fruitful. Below is a summary of the report. Section 1. Insulation standards . We have compared standards proposed by the Illinois Capital Development Board (CDB) with those of the National Bureau of Standards, Federal Housing Authority, New York State Public Service Commission, and others. We find that as applied to a residential-sized building, the ICDB standards are intermediate in effectiviness in suppressing heat loss by conduction. However, there is only a 27% spread between the best and worst. Section 2. Recent actions in the United States on utility rate structures , loan programs to encourage installation of home insulation, and promotional advert i sement . We have reviewed activities by state public utility commissions. Section 3. Solar heating and cooling of buildings. About 25% of Illinois present energy demands could be met by flat- plate solar collection. Acceptability is severely limited by economics, especially regarding retrofits. However, rising energy prices make solar heating and cooling (SHAC) much more viable than even three years ago. If retrofits are still not possitle, but if a large acceptance is gained for new construction, about 1.7% of Illinois' energy could be provided by SHAC by 1985 (i.e., 1.7% of projected use at that time, based on 50% solar dependence for 2/3 of new construction). "Realistic" projections made by several industries on NSF contract in summer, 197^, give much lower figures: 0.09-0.17%. Section U. Energy efficiency of home heating sources . Claims made by several protagonists in this issue, especially the electric industry, were found to be exaggerated. We find that with reason- able maintenance, the efficiencies (heat energy delivered to residence total primary energy required) are as follows: Source Efficiency (%) Coal Oil Gas Electric resistance Electric heat pump 60 26 36 to 52, depending on climate, Section 5. Potential energy savings from recycling . A. Paper . If recycling is defined as burning paper productively, about 1% of Illinois' energy budget could be recovered (We have objections to this kind of "recycling" however, see text). Recycling of paper into paper is technology - limited, but could be improved from today's 23^ (most is "new scrap" ) to about k9%. The energy then saved is equivalent to 0.09% of Illinois energy budget. One reason that this figure is so small is that collection and transportation energies of scrap have been included. B. Aluminum . Remelting aluminum takes 96% less energy than making it from raw materials. This seems to imply great savings through recycling, but two factors limit this. First, much aluminum is sequestered in Ions term commitments (machinery, housing, electrical equipment) and not available for recycle. Second, energy is needed to collect and transport scrap. The net available savings today through all possible recycling is thus about O.U2% of the U.S. energy budget. Since much primary aluminum is made outside of Illinois, the savings here would be even less. C. Soft drink and beer bottles and cans As discussed in the text, we define recycling as use of returnable glass bottles, not remelt of cans or bottles. Shifting present Illinois practice to a 100$ glass returnable system would save 0.32$ of Illinois' energy budget. D. Auto hulks An energy equivalent to 0.67$ of Illinois* use could be saved by making the approximately 723,000 new cars registered in Illinois in 1973 of recycled metals. Much of the energy would actually be saved out-of-state. Section 6. Modal shifts in passenger transportation between selected Illinois cities . We find that effecting a shift from plane and car towards train and bus for travel between the nine standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (i.e., large cities and surrounds) would save a rather small amount of energy. A complete abandonment of the car and plane (for these trips only) would save 0.07$ i- n direct fuel use; inclusion of indirect effects would raise the savings to about 0.10$. Section 7. Potential measures within the Illinois State Government . A. Substitutions of a sticker system for the present throwaway license plate. Going to a plate that lasts five years would save 0.0015$ of Illinois • energy use. B. Use of returnable bottles in all soft drink vending machines in state offices . Estimate was contingent on receipt of bottle and can sales data from IOEC . Data were not delivered. C. Energy saved by considering "life cost" rather than "first cost" of an appliance . We present a generalized framework for the calculation and illustrate "by applying it to a comparison of room air conditioners. For six different sizes we find that in all cases the model with lowest life cost uses significantly less energy then the model with lowest first cost. In four out of six, the lowest cost strategy yields the maximum energy savings . Section 8. Gas yard lights, gas pilot lights, and instant-on televisions. A. Gas lawn lights . They use 0.10$ of Illinois' energy budget. B. Gas pilot lights . Pilots on ranges, water heaters, dryers, and furnaces use about 1.1$ of Illinois ' energy. A conservative estimate of how much of this is wasted is 0.30$ of Illinois' use. C. Instant-on Television sets . Between 0.05 and 0.10$ of Illinois' energy is used now by this option. Solid state instant-on sets use less power than tube type, and at least one large manufacturer (RCA) has discontinued instant-on models, so the "problem" may be solving itself. Section 9. Uses of waste heat from power plants and coal gasification plants . We review them briefly. 1. Comparison of Insulation Standards of the Illinois Capital Development Board -with Others. We want to compare several others with those of the Illinois Capital Development Board (ICDB) Ll] . We have been able to do this for a "prototype" single family residence for heating requirements. For larger buildings, and for air conditioning, we have not performed calcula- tions because of their greater difficulty. The "degree-day" approach is relatively valid for a shaded home; but for commercial buildings, with their extreme insolation load, it is not. For such buildings, factors other than insulation also become important: shading of windows, orientation of building, required infiltration (there is a factor of six depending on whether smoking is allowed).* There are several "model" calculations available, (for example, National Bureau of Standards, Rand Corporation) but we felt it was beyond our skills to (necessarily) evaluate how good they are before using them. Table 1-1 lists available standards and some information. (We found that the Association of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Condition- ing Engineers (ASHRAE) does not promulgate standards since they are not a regulating body). Table 1-2 lists the standards, in terms of the insulating re- quirements for walls, ceilings, floors, and windows and doors as they apply to a chosen residential size building in Springfield, Illinois [2] Table 1-3 lists the relative energy savings obtainable through implementation of these standards. In each case only the effect of the insulation on conduction is considered; infiltration losses are assumed not to change. Results are compared for three types of basements: unheated crawlway, heated basement, and slab-on-grade. Details of the calculations are in Appendix 1-A. We must be careful to specify what we have calculated. We have calculated the heat loss remaining after implementation of the standards, from conduction only . We should note first that all standards here are a big improvement over an uninsulated building (pre 19^0). * ASHRAE guidelines recommend the factor of six for public buildings. R.L. Bertschi of the University of Illinois Abbott Steam Plant has computed the costs of the service of providing the extra infiltration for smokers (private communication, 3 September, 197*0. He finds an energy cost of k million Btu , and a dollar cost of about 9 dollars, per occupant per heating season. Another cost of smoking! The conduction heat loss for the 19^0 building is about 135 x 10 Btu/yr., or 1.7-2.U times that remaining after implementation of standards. The insulation schemes listed here represent a Ul to 5&% improvement over no insulation, and there is no more than a 27% spread between any of them in the categories covered by the ICDB. We see that the ICDB standards are of intermediate effectivness for saving energy - better than those of National Bureau of Standards (NBS), but not as good as those of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or the New York Public Service Commission. The differences are due to three factors. (Refer to Table 1-2). First, and most important, is the "default" condition on wall insulation. This says that as long as the opaque part of the wall has no more than a certain U value (in the range of 0.08 - 0.10, which compares well with the other standards), the window glass can have any U value such that the average total wall U is no more a rather high value (0.23 for ICDB; 0.22 for National Bureau of Standards).* FHA, on the other hand, specifies double glazing for all windows. Second, the ICDB ceiling U value is larger than that of the FHA. Third, the foundation insulation and/or edge of slab insulation U values are somewhat higher in the ICDB standards than in FHA's. *ICDB additionally specifies that no more than 2% of wall area can be single glazing; this has a small effect for our building. The actual gross wall U comes out to be 0.215, assuming that if a window isn't single glazed; then it is double. (The ICDB standard isn't explicit here) For comparison, the gross wall U that results from applying the FHA standard is 0.18, lh% lower. Table 1-1. Comparison of Insulation Standards U is listed in Btu/ft. /hr./°F. R is the reciprocal of U. Temp. dep. refers to whether the standards shift with design temperature, degree days, etc. R/U refers to whether insulation is specified by R or U. "Default" refers to the existence of several overlapping standards. For example, the Illinois Capital Development Board specifies for walls that l) opaque sections have IK0.10, and that single sheet glass comprise <_ 2% of gross wall area, or 2) that gross wall average U<_ .23. Which of l) or 2) applies depends on how much glass there actually is, and one must check his actual design to find out. Defaults make application of standards more difficult. cu 1 -P 1 1 o o T3 ft aJ V. - CO i-1 1 C O -H ^ «w = CU •& •H ! 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C cd H co Eh •H Cm bO H tJ a • H ~ H O CO cd H 3 CO !* H- 5 co cd P •H •H H H o CO bO H ,Q cd cd O ^ Jh ■P co P O X bO m o o Cm a ^d pi p P •H rH NI •H P TJ P a) Cm CO H H •H g cd CQ bO o P !> H co Ph Ph co CO • H CO S cd co cd rQ CO O P P> X co M rH o O W -H o cd O a -d 16 Table 1-3. Heating energy loss (conduction only) remaining after implementation of selected insulation standards _f or example residential- type structure ' c) Case Agency Unheated \ Heated , >, Slab on , \ ncaocu , \ oj.au un , \ Crawl space Basement grade 1. 111. Cap. Dev. Board 197^ 2. FHA - 197 1 * 3. Nat. Mineral Wool Assoc. - 197^ h. NBS - 197 1 * 5. Small Homes Council (Electric Heat) - 197 1 * 6. NYS Public Svc. Comm. 197 0.93 0.93 0.90 — 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.83 0.90 1.35 - - 1.25 1.13 1.05 1.02 0.9 1 * a) Therefore, lower numbers mean better insulation, higher numbers mean poorer. b) Normalized with respect to the heat loss by the Illinois Capital Development Board Standards, where appropriate. The ICDB proposed no standard for unheated crawlspace construction, so values are normalized with respect to the FHA standard. Actual heat losses: Unheated crawlspace, FHA: 55.8 x 10 Btu/yr; Heated basement, ICDB: 70. k x 10 Btu/yr; Slab-on grade, ICDB: 77.6 x 10 Btu/yr, c) As given in Table 1-1. IT Appendix 1-A. Calculation of Effects of Insulation Standards . This computes the remaining conduction heat loss from the model structure after introduction of the insulation assuming infiltration losses are unchanged. There are three cases: unheated cellar (or crawl space), heated cellar, and slab-on grade floor. The model building is a 30' x 60' - 1 story ranch type with 260 sq. ft. of glass area. L = length ~\ W = width \ (ft. ) H = height J 2) AG = area of glass (ft. UG = "U" value, glass UW = "U" value, wall UC = "U" value, ceiling UF = "U" value, floor UFO = "U" value, foundation FC = a factor to account for the role of the attic and roof over the ceiling DD = No. of degree days in Springfield, Illinois P = heat loss for perimeter of slab floor (Btu/hr/ft). \ (Btu/ft 2 /hr/°F) 18 Case 1: Unheated cellar or crawlspace . The cellar is assumed to be at 50° throughout the heating season of 200 days [9]. UC is approximately 0.9, as determined from data in the same reference. Heat Loss saving = AG * UG * 2k. * DD + (2. * (L* W) * H - AG) * UW * 2k. * DD + L * W * UC * FC * 2k . * DD + L * W * UF * 2k. * 15. * 200. (1) Case 2: Heated Basement. We rely on information in the ASHRAE Handbook . [10] from Donald Brotherson of the Small Homes Council (l8 October 197M , and from ref. 11 (SHC provided much of the information in the ASHRAE Handbook). The cellar is assumed to have 2 feet of wall above grade, and exceed 5 feet below grade. The insulation standards require insulation down to 30" below grade; otherwise the foundation is uninsulated. Above grade, the temperature differential is the same as for the house. We assume that for the 30" below grade, the average temperature differ- ential is the mean of that at the grade (that is, same as for house) and that at 30" ( that is, house temperature minus average ground temperature). The average temperature differential for Springfield between house and outdoors is 27.5 (200 day heating season). The average between basement and ground is 65 - 55 = 10°. Therefore the average differential for the below-grade in- sulation is (27. 5 +10) /2 = 18.8°. The heat loss remaining for the heated basement house is thus given by Eq_. (l), except that a. the last line is deleted. b. the following is added. 2* (L + W ) * 2. * UFO * 2k. * DD (2) +2. * (L + W) * 2.5 * UFO * 18.8 * 2k. * 200 19 Case 3. Slab - on - grade floor. A slab floor will lose about 1.5 Btu/ 2 ft /hr. in this climate, except for a region 2 ft. wide on the perimeter where edge insulation is important. We converted the "U" value of edge insulation to a heat loss from that region using information in Ref. 10, p. 5, (based on actual measurements). To account for the slab floor, we again start with eq.(l), and modify it this time: a. the last line is deleted b. the following is added: (L - k.) * (W - k.) * 1.5 * 2k. * 200. (3) +2. * (L + W) * P * 2k. * 200. P, the heat loss per foot of perimeter, was evaluated from Ref. 10 for the average temperature of Springfield during the heating season. U of edge insulation p (Btu/sq.ft/hr./°F) (Btu/hr . /ft . ) •29 18 •1^ 16 20 References - Section 1 1. "Energy Conservation Guide for the Construction of State Funded Buildings", Illinois Capital Development Board, 20 April, 197^. 2. House is one story, 30' x 60' x 8'. See Appendix 1-A for calculations and details. 3. "Minimum Property Standards for One and Two Family Dwellings, Revision No. 1, ^900.1, Federal Housing Administration, Washington, D.C. July 191k. U. "How to Insulate Homes for Electric Heating and Air Conditioning", National Mineral Wool Insulation Association, New York, N.Y., February, 197^. 5. "Design and Evaluation Criteria for Energy Conservation in New Buildings", NBSIR lh-h52, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, February, 197^+. 6. Technical Options for Energy Conservation in Buildings", NBS Technical Note 789, National Bureau of Standards, July, 1973. 7. "Home Heating and Cooling With Electricity, ' Technical Note No. 10, Small Homes Council, University of Illinois, May, 197^+. 8. "Order Adopting, with Modifications, Examiners Decision Establishing Insulation Standards for Buildings Heated by Gas", Issued l6 April, 197^, Case 26286, New York State Public Service Commission. 9. J. Moyers, "The Value of Thermal Insulation in Residential Construction", Report ORNL-NSF-EP-9, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, December 1971. 10. ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals , Association of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers, New York, N.Y., 1972. 11. D. Brotherson, "Insulation for Heating", Technical Note No. 3, Small Homes Council, University of Illinois, May, 1969- 21 2. Review of Recent Actions in the United States on Utility Rate Structur es Loan Programs to Encourage Installation of Home Insulation, and Promotional Advertisement . Public utility commission activities on these topics are increasing rapidly. It is somewhat difficult to keep up to date. At least one overall study is in progress, but results are not yet available [1 ] 2-A. Changes in Utility Rate Structures to Conserve Energy . Flattening the rate structure is one of several related tactics, which also include peak load pricing (daily, seasonal) and marginal cost pricing (instead of average). It is generally held that these measures would encourage energy conservation, though they might also be motivated, or justified, on pure economic grounds. Here we review actions taken by, or under consideration by, other states. Wisconsin - The Wisconsin Public Service Commission has flattened electric rates for the Madison Gas and Electric Company [ 2, 8 August, 197M. In its decision, the Commission listed these principles, among others : a. Long run incremental cost pricing is the proper way to charge for electricity. Commission held that marginal cost and "long run incremental cost" were equivalent for this purpose. b. A major factor in this pricing as peak vs off-peak use. Besides requiring summer /winter rate differentials, the Commission recommended that large customers must be subject to day /night rates "without delay". Although the cost of meters is apparently a deterrent to implementing for small customers, the utility must "forthwith undertake, either alone or in connection with other Wisconsin utilities, experimental work - in this area". c. Flat rate design is in general reasonable. The burden of proof is now placed on the utility to justify a declining rate structure for any class of service by presenting evidence on the con- sumption/load factor relationship. The entire argument was thus based only on economic grounds. The Commission specifically ordered: 22 1. Residential rates - a. Winter /summer differential on all energy consumption exceeding a fixed amount per month. b. Flat rate. Electricity sold at constant amount per KWhr s regardless of amount consumed, in addition to fixed monthly charge. b. Commercial rates - 1. Winter/summer differential for consumption over a certain power level.* 2. Some flattening, but not as much as for residential. c. Industrial rates - 1. Winter/summer differential based on power level*. 2. Some flattening, but not as much as for residential. d. Inter class differences - several changes which reduced differences somewhat: This decision is publicized as a precedent-setter for energy con- servation. [ 3] . Two intervenors, notably the Environmental Defense Fund, were instrumental. The decision was by a 2-to-l vote, and no appeal is expected. Michigan - The Public Service Commission is fairly adventurous. Currently their staff has submitted for consideration by the Commission, a residential rate which is truly inverted [k]. This would be the first such in the nation, but chances of adoption are slim. They will also consider time-of day metering for industrial uses. In two recent previous decisions [5] the Michigan Public utility Commission indicated strong support for marginal cost pricing, and stated that "the way in which rate structures are designed must be changed promotional rate structures are out of date". The Commission found insignificant variation in load factor with volume for residential consumers, and therefore promulgated a flat rate (in addition to single fixed cost. ) Economic factors dominated but conservation was mentioned, too. Large customers already have power demand meters. Residential customers do not. 23 On the other hand, the Utility CoonitisiuE at this time did not change the commercial and industrial rate structure. It cautioned that it "must have facts to consider the impact of changes in the econ- omy of the state". Judged by the recent activity mentioned above, they have some of the facts now. New York - The New York Public Service Commission has not made as sweeping changes as Michigan or Wisconsin, but has made some. It has approved a summer/winter rate differential for the Long Island Lighting Company [referred to in 6, p. 68] to be more equitable to customers without air conditioning. In the same opinion the Commission recognized "the need to modify the rate structure so as to encourage conservation". For residential use, the commission has looked for, but found n£ connection between increased consumption and load factor. They say that " rate differentials which benefit large volume users, are, in general, not justified . In the future it will be incumbent upon those advocating retention of such rate design features to demon- strate cost justification". This is an opinion and order: the order was for the utility in question, Consolidated Edison, to produce rate structures consistant with guidelines. According to Joseph Rizzuto, of the Commiss- ion staff, this represented their strongest statement so far on rate structure (The Commission has required that one utility experiment with residential demand meters). California - Has done no rate setting on this basis, but is moving. The California Public Utility Commission has recently been ordered by the legislature to hold hearings and investigations on essentially all of the issues mentioned with respect to Wisconsin, and report back by 31 August, 1975 iTJ. The order is specific and strong. It is part of a series of investigations over the past year on general questions of adequacy of fuel supplies, conservation schemes, etc. Florida - Within one month of late October, 197*+ [8] , there will be two general decisions by the Florida Public Service Commission, one on rate structure and one on promotional advertising. These decisions will not have an associated rate case, but will be just as binding for policy in future cases. It is expected that the basic philosophy will be that of the Wisconsin ruling. 2k References - Section 2-A. 1. Council of State Governments, Iron Works Pike, Lexington, Kentucky U0511. Contact is Mike Green. He expressed difficulty in getting responses from the states. 2. "Application of Madison Gas and Electric Company for Authority to Increase Its Electric and Gas Rates" Case 2-U-7^23, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, 8 August, 197^. 3. "A 'Giant Step' in Power Pricing", Science , 20 September 197^, p. 1031. h. Thomas Hancock, Chief of Staff, Michigan Public Service Commission, phone conversation, 28 October, 197^. 5. U-U257, U-U332, Michigan Public Service Commission, Lansing, Michigan. 6. "Opinion and Order Deferring Increased Revenue Requirement and Directing Changes in Rate Design, Opinion No. 73-31, Case 2630Q, New York State Public Service Commission, 6 September, 1973. 7. "Investigation on the Commission's own motion into electric utility rate structures and the changes, if any, that should be made " Case No. 980U, Public Utilities Commission, Sacramento, California, 10 October, 19lh. 8. James Gentry, Florida Public Service Commission, phone conversation, 28 October, 1968. 25 2-B. Loan Programs for Insulation Installation The one example is from Michigan. Details are in Reference 1 (the initial ruling) and in Reference 2 (a follow-up report, issued in mid- October, 197^). In a few words the Michigan Public Service Commission has allowed utilities (first, Michigan Consolidated Gas Company, and now, two others) to include, as legitimate expenses: 1) advertising to promote residential insulation installation 2) financing of loans to accomplish this (for ceiling insulation only) to the current FHA standard ( 6 inches). The sole justification is energy conservation. The commission opined that in view of energy shortages, conservation measures help the utility serve its customers. The loans are paid by an additional charge added to the monthly bill, with a maximum payout time of 36 months. The utility makes no profit on the loans. To our knowledge, there is no other working program of this type in the country. Rather than repeat information in the reports, we stress a few points by questions. Ql. Why is the program different from using bank loans? Al. It's probably more convenient to pay with the gas bill. No collateral is required. If paid in 90 days, there is no interest. However, according to Thomas Hancock, Chief of Staff of the Commission (phone conversation, 15 October 197^ ), most respondents are seeking private funding. Q2. How much increase in the monthly bill occurs? A2. On the order of $10. A 20^ down payment (of order $30 ) is required. Q3. How much money is actually saved by the customer? A3. Significant, but it usually takes between 2 and 5 years to recover the savings. See Table 2-B-l. The Michigan Public Service Commission points out that the savings in heating gas are equivilant to a return interest rate of 17 to kk% on the original investment for insulation. In other words, there is a very strong economic incentive. 26 QU. How much energy is saved? QU. 10 to 17% of the home's heating use [1, p. 7 ]. If carried over to all homes, this would save in excess of 1% of the state's energy budget. Q5. How does the utility assure that fair prices are charged for insulation and contract work? (graft protection?) A5. The Commission received and accepted the utility's method of selecting and monitoring the approved list of contractors. Q6. How many customers have responded? A6. As of 31 August, 197^, the 3 utilities estimated that 62 thousand homes have been insulated, but only 297 have been financed through the utilities. 2 7 MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION INTEROFFICE COMMUNICATION To: Joel A. Sharkey Date: 9/26/74 From: Jane Ashley Subject: Home Insulation Savings At current rates, if a homeowner insulated the home to the six inch standard, the following would be the results: Michigan Consolidated Customer Pre-1940 Home Average Cost for Do-I t-Yourselfer $ 97.22 Average Yearly Savings 40.08 Average Monthly Savings 3.34 Annual Rate of Return on Investment 41% Payback Period 2.4 years Post-1940 Hom e Average Cost for Do-It-Yoursel fer $140.00 Average Yearly Savings 24.19 Average Monthly Savings 2.02 Annual Rate of Return 17% Payback Period 5.8 years Table 2-B-l, Cost Data For Plome Insulation Source: Ref. 2 28 References - Section 2-B 1. Michigan Public Service Commission, "In the Matter of the Application of Michigan Consolidated Gas Company, for Authorization of a Program for the Conservation of Natural Gas", Case No. U-UUoU, Lansing, Michigan, 5 October, 1973. 2. J. A. Sharkey, "Home Insulation Promotion and Financing Program", Report to the Michigan Public Service Commission, undated, received October, 19lh. 29 2-C. Promotional Advertising by Utilities Promotional activities of utility companies include not only advertising but also payments or other considerations. This report examines only utility commission actions which have restricted advertis- ing and concentrates on those rulings which were influenced by energy shortages and which affect energy utilities. Since we are not lawyers we do not present this as a complete legal anaylsis of all precedents for such restrictions. Due to the time lag in rulings being published, any handed down in the last few months may not be included. There are basically three types of utility advertising. In- stitutional advertising is intended to improve the public image of the utility. Promotional advertising serves to gain new customers or to induce the purchase of more energy. Public service advertising tells customers about emergency procedures, changes in rates, safety precautions, and energy conservation measures. Rulings or laws which attempt to restrict promotional or institutional advertising must be carefully worded or, as noted below, much "load-building" advertising may be billed as "in- formational" or "safety". In the early years of utility regulation promotional advertising was generally looked upon as a legitimate expense, with some restrictions. It was not considered reasonable during "conditions calling for emergency relief" in a 1919 Indiana ruling ('PUR1919A.UU8) , or when it was of "excessive amount" in a 1921 Oklahoma decision (15 Ann. Rep. Okla. C.C. 15^. ) Various restrictions were placed upon advertising of a political nature (PUR1922D,l8. ) It was generally held that ratepayers should foot the bill for the portion of the advertising which was for their benefit, and that the company's shareholders should pay for advertising which was of benefit solely to them. Some commissions concluded that all utility advertising benefitted the rate-payer, and others held that none of it benefitted him, while others were somewhere in the middle. There appeared to be no clear rule which would allow one to determine the legitimacy of a particular advertisement. A 1935 supreme court ruling pro- vided some closure in this early era of litigation when it was held that * These refer to Public Utilities Reports, which publishes summaries of all public utility commission decisions. 30 "reasonable amounts" of promotional advertising were a legitimate expense for rate setting purposes (6PURNSUU9). The argument in the twenties and thirties was thus primarily one of equitable division of cost of the advertisements with energy shortages playing a negligible role. ("Advertising and promotional practices during shortages of gas reserves", Public Ut ilities Fortnightly , Oct. lU, 1971, pp 62-63). Public utility commissions in many states are once again scrut- inizing advertising by utilities, after many years of relative inattention. The reasons given now for restricting such advertising vary; some simply say it's to help conserve energy by reducing demand, while others continue to base restrictions on economic considerations, arguing that, for various reasons, the ratepayer does not derive a benefit from the ads. The latter reason was the basis for a 1953 Connecticut ruling (2PUR3d379), which disallowed institutional advertising expenses on the grounds that if anyone derived an advantage from the ads it would be the shareholders , not the rate- payers. Other rulings have been products of both the energy crisis and economic considerations as in a pair of 1971 North Carolina rulings (88 PUR3d230, 88PUE3d283). The reasoning behind many such rulings is that there is no economic justification for a company to advertise if it can't even supply the present level of demand. Ecological and plant siting problems as well as the above argument entered into a 1971 California ruling (90PUR3dl) which reduced a company's promotional and advertising allowance. The New York Commission restricted a company's promotional advertising in 1971 primarily in response to the natural gas shortage (90PUR3d93). Later that year the same commission allowed advertising expenses which were of a "service or educational nature" and which did not tend to aggravate the gas shortage (93PUR3d302) . The Pennsylvania Commission held hearings regarding the gas shortage and ruled in 1972 that, among other conservation measures, the gas companies must "cease all advertising and other promotional activities which have the purpose or effect of increasing the use of gas..." (Case #12U, order of 2/1/72). Rhode Island noted, in a 1972 ruling which disallowed an electric company's promotional expenses, that the company would have difficulty supplying any additional demand (93PUR3dUl7) . The Kansas commission in 1972 disallowed promotional expenses on the grounds that prospective customers were plentiful and the utility need only connect (95PUR3d2l+7) . Hawaii in 1973 (96PUR3d80) allowed an electric company to promote in ways 31 designed to improve the "load factor" and therefore allegedly boost effic- iency. This argument has been put forth elsewhere, as in a dissent to a 1972 Iowa ruling restricting promotion (96PUR3dl) where it was claimed that the load factor could be improved by "promoting tourism and/or indus- trial and commercial development". Electric generation is indeed more efficient when power consumption does not fluctuate, which is one meaning of a high load factor (the other meaning is a technical one referring to the inductive component of the load). But there are two ways to eliminate periodic variations in power consumption: "valley filling" and "peak shaving." Valley filling is exemplified by adding new demands, such as electric residential heating and new industries, and boosts efficiency only by increasing overall energy consumption. Peak shaving achieves higher efficiency by reducing peak power consumption through such measures as peak demand charges, and does not increase overall energy consumption (it may decrease it). Iowa opened the way for restriction of institutional ads by ruling that the company must prove how the ratepayer benefitted from each ad. In the past, customers or consumer groups were required to prove the ads were not beneficial; the burden of proof was thus shifted (96PUR3dl). The Iowa commission has in several rulings allowed only that portion of in- stitutional advertising that could be shown to benefit the public. The portion was ^0% in one case (99PUR3dU32) . In 1973 the Wisconsin com- mission disallowed 55% of a company's institutional advertising (99PUP 3dl7^). Commissioner Eich in a concurring opinion said that institutional ads build the corporate image and benefit the shareholders rather than the ratepayers. California in 1972 allowed a gas and electric company sales promotion expenses which were intended to help conserve energy (97PUP 3d32l). It allowed another company to sponsor "public information" advertising "designed to promote energy conservation" (l00PUR3d257) , after the company had eliminated its openly promotional advertising. Oklahoma in 1972 established a similar policy of prohibiting image-building institutional advertising while allowing "consumer and conservation advertising" without limitation (97PUP3dl). North Carolina in 1973 allowed a natural gas company "educational and informational advertising" which "educated the public as to the appropriate use of natural gas and the conservation of energy" (99PUR3d237) • 32 However, the abiguity of such terms as "consumer", "informational", or "safety" advertising may allow companies to continue promotion of in- creased energy consumption. For example, see Fig. 2-C-l, which shows an advertisement for a "security nite lite".* It could be argued that al- most any appliance imparts some measure of "safety." For example, it is probable that electric irons cause fewer burned fingers than sadirons heated on a stove, or using a trash compactor causes fewer sprain- ed ankles than stomping garbage into a trash can. The wording of the California rulings above would appear to restrict this, although channels would need to be set up for the review of questionable ads. It should be noted that since Illinois utilities experience peak demand in the daytime, nite lights do represent a valley-filler. They require additional energy, but not additional capacity. Most of Illinois electricity comes from coal or nuclear, which is not as scarce as oil. New York makes most of its electricity from oil, and hence is currently energy-limited. The New York Public Service Commission has therefore banned all promotional advertising. ("Statement of Policy on Advertising and Promotional Practices by Public Utilities", New York State Public Service Commission, 21 June, 1972, and phone conversation Les Stuzin, of the Commission, 28 October, 197^.) The Rhode Island commission in 1973 (93PUR3dl+17) disallowed advertising expense that promoted activities which increased demand for energy o_r which boosted the peak demand. It held that these would only increase the cost of energy in times of shortage and therefore were not of benefit to ratepayers. Utah in 197^ ruled (2PUR Uth, abstracts) that a fuel company could charge ads to ratepayers only when the ads encourage energy conser- vation, or instruct consumers in safety matters. Massachusetts, on the other hand, is one state where rulings as recently as March, 1973 have left utilities nearly complete freedom to promote (99PUR3dl+17) . This policy is apparently based upon a binding Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling on the legitimacy of promotional advertising which was handed down in 1971, before the energy shortage reached its present severity. Other states have asked their utilities to cease promotional advertising informally, and were thus not included in our survey. 33 The tendency in a growing number of states thus appears to be either the prohibition of promotional advertising or the elimination of it as a business expense, often on economic grounds which have their basis in the energy crisis. "Image building" institutional advertising is being discouraged in a number of states, with shareholders having to pay some or all of the cost of it instead of ratepayers footing the bill alone. The only utility advertising which has not been restricted to a significant extent is public service advertising, particularly that which tells customers how to conserve energy. f I •u i fflitiiiB,,- •--' THE "3ECTIONAL *. SECURITY NITE LITE Outdoor lighting is recognized as one of the most effective safely and security measures for any business, fqrm or home. As such, it's a wi{fc«^e of energy. . The Directional Security Nile Lite provides powerful oil night illumination with new flexibility. Unlike the conventional Nite Lite, which floodlights o broad area from o fixed position, the Directional Security Nite Lite can be aimed to illuminate o specific location. The unit includes o reflector behind the -bulb to increase the intensity of illumination. Operates automatically. Tunis on it dusk and oft il dawn. Available In Iwa siies: 400 watt and 1.000 watt mercury vapor lloodlights fixed monthly rcntol fee covers installation on Illinois Power poles, maintenance and all ttecliicily the lifht uses. Fig.2-C-1. Recent pro- motional advertisement from Illinois Power Company. Contained in residential bill, October, 197U. BJ i -ay.i i 'jugq S££E'. Efficiency All-night outdoor lighting discouiages thieves, prcwlers and vandals. *5*» ^ Sjtong illumination directed where you want it can prevent serious accidents that occur in darkness. Jobs after daik are done . efficiently and quickly with the illumination provided by a Directional Security Nite Lite. For ''ofa-ils *on Directional Security i\ J iv«? Life, de»ach or.d rraii this coupon in the envelope with your payment. Ko o';! ; na,ion. ^r y^ TO: ILLINOIS POWER COMPANY I'm intereitad in lh« new Directional Security Nite lite for my □ business □ farm Q horn* My name Firm najne Address City Phont) 35 3. Conservation Potential of Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings , Including V/ater Heating . On a clear day about 1000 watts per square meter of solar power falls on the earth. U.S. total energy use averages out to 10 thousand watts per person. Even if we allow a factor of 3 for day/night effects and another factor of 3 for bad weather and inefficiency of collection, we still find that 90 square meters (a plot 30 feet on a side) should pro- vide a person's energy needs. Similarly, 0.2$ of America's area should provide all of our energy needs today. This discussion is incomplete because it has not taken account of another factor - temperature. Smelting iron requires high temperatures, while heating residential water requires low temperatures. In principle, by use of focusing devices, solar power could achieve a temperature approach- ing that of the sun's surface (about 10 thousand degrees F.), enough to satisfy almost any requirement. In practice, building such a device would be extremely expensive. In this section we will discuss the use of flat plate, non-focusing non-tracking collectors, which achieve a peak temperature of 200 F.* This limits the applications to space heating (including grain drying) and cool- ing and air conditioning. From Table 3-1, we see that these uses today account for about 25$ of America's energy. The potential energy savings from Solar Heating and Cooling (SHAC) is on the order of 25$ of today's use, but practically (economically) speak- ing, much less. We have reviewed several studies, some of which attempted to predict the acceptance of SHAC, and we will present a summary of the find- ings. Our basic opinion is this: that for many applications, particularly residential, solar power is close enough to economic competitiveness that some action encouraging it is justified (on the justifiable basis that com- peting fuel will continue to rise in price). As mentioned below, Florida has already enacted legislation; Indiana has passed a law allowing tax- breaks for SHAC systems. *Higher temperatures can be obtained through conversion, such as to electri- city in a solar power station and subsequent use in an electric furnace. This sacrifices efficiency and requires much more collector area. We will not worry about power plants here. 36 First , a few general comments ; 1. Of the applications listed above, water heating is the most likely to be economically justifiable, because of the relatively constant load through the year. 2. Air conditioning is also a likely candidate since the need occurs when the sun is highest, but absorption air condition- ing is not yet as reliable as conventional (compressor type) (Cooling by running a solar collector in reverse at night works best in dry climates with cool nights. It is of doubtful use in humid Illinois). Also, this requires temperatures at the high end of the possible range, approaching 200°F. This requires more expensive collectors than water heating, for which 1^0° F suffices. 3. Commercial buildings are not as likely candidates as resi- dential. First, their air conditioning load exceeds their heating load; the opposite is true for residences. Second, commercial customers currently pay less for conventional fuels. (Peak load pricing could change this significantly.) h. Use for grain drying is difficult to assess due to first, possible availability of other tactics (use of chemical preservatives, etc.) and second, the sensitivity to the "one bad year". With respect to the second point, currently there are three test solar units in Illinois. They provide low- temperature drying, which takes from 30 to 60 days. Last year (1973) this type of drying would have been perfectly suitable for the crop, which was already fairly dry. This year (197*0, thanks to the early severe frosts, it would have been unsuitable; the grain was wet and needed drying within 2h hours. It is estimated that about one-third of Illinois grain would have been lost this year with low- temperature solar drying. It seems that a 100^ standard backup system would have to be maintained, even with a solar system. [2] 37 For the uses mentioned there is plenty of solar energy. The techn- ology has been demonstrated. The limiting factor in acceptance is dollar cost, and projections of the actual impact of solar heating and cooling (SHAC) must depend on projections of relative costs of competing sources. For example, a critical factor is how much retrofitting will occur. At present, retrofitting a house for SHAC costs about twice as much as installation at time of construction. [3,p.3-13] (Recognizing this, Florida has passed a law requiring that all new one-family dwellings must be equipped with plumbing for solar water heating hook-up. ) Another question about cost is that of the economies of scale in solar collector technology. Usually the projections we have seen assume a future decrease in cost (per square foot) of solar collectors (an exception is Ref.U). This is critical since most of the cost of the SHAC system is for capital equipment. Sizes of storage facilities and collectors are independent, and both quite expensive. (it has been pointed out that if you over estimate, by a factor two, the size of gas furnace you need, it costs $175. more. A similar mistake with a rooftop collector will cost $1000-$2000 more.) Actually, it is rarely economical to go to a 100% solar basis, and even a solar system will usually incorporate a conventional backup (oil, gas, electric heat pump, etc. ) Comprehensive estimates of the cost of SHAC come from only 2 sources. L8f and Tybout have done very detailed work on residential use. [5] Unfortun- atly their results are based on 1970 prices and have not been consistently updated. Recently, three companies (TRW, Westinghouse, and General Electric) have completed short studies for the National Science Foundation on the "market capture" potential of SHAC [3,^,6]. Their results are not as painstaking, but are more current. Examples are given in Tables 3-2 and 3-3 for residential use. The consensus of these is that SHAC is not economically competitive with gas or oil now for a climate like Illinois'. However, we see that with a reasonable increase in price of fuel (say T% per year, a doubling every ten years, which seems conservative) it is competitive. As for the actual "market capture potential", the predictions made by the NSF contract ees and by a joint NSF/NASA panel in 1972 [7], are not 38 too optimistic. The estimates for the energy saved by SHAC ranges between 100 and 175 x 10 12 Btu in 1985 , about 0.09 to 0.15$ of the nation's projected energy use. As shown in Table 3-*+ the various projections do not differ from each other by all that much in spite of presumably independent assumptions about new building construction , economic factors, etc. All of these projections, which include some estimate of consumer acceptability, are much less than the potential of SHAC. For comparison, we have estimated a maximum energy savings. We assumed that 2/3 of all new residential and commercial construction starts will use SHAC to 50$ solar dependency, and that no retrofits occur. (These are in accord with an estimate made in Ref. 6). By 1985 we obtain a savings of 2 x 10 ' Btu/yr. This is more than 10 times the projections in Table 3-^, and equals 1.7$ of the 1985 U.S. energy use. This is indeed a large and signifcant savings.* We have found no projections of housing in Illinois that go beyond a few years; for the longer period we therefore must extrapolate national results to Illinois. To recapitulate, we have three estimates of the energy savings by use of SHAC in heating, air conditioning, and water heating: 1. Replacement of all current uses : - ?5$ of energy use. 2. Maximum application in new buildings, no retrofits, by 1985: 1.7$ of projected use. 3. Industry estimates of acceptance, by 1985: 0.09 - 0.15$ of projected use. * The energy needed to build SHAC is paid back in from one to two years of operation. 39 Table 3-1. Energy Uses Suitable for Solar Units (% of Illinois Energy Budget) Residential Commercial Industrial Space heating 10.9 7.0 I i Direct heat "J A Water heating 2.9 0.6 \ Air conditioning 0.3 1.8 0.3 C) Grain drying t>) a) All figures except grain drying are from Ref. 1, Table 3, and apply to national average data for the year 1968. b) Only a part of this is low-temperature use suitable for solar supply, c) Data specific for Illinois, from David Lohr, Illinois Office of the Energy Coordinator, phone conversation, 8 November, 197^. ko tJ bO C •H H O . — . O cd o Tl co a D cd iH M cd fi •H •H -P -P C cd Q) TJ K •H CO U (U cd K H O ^ CO O Cm . co C\J -P 1 CO CO O o (1) H S> rt EH co H H O O 3 -P pq o •H r-f H •H B U ft -P CO o o J | •vi s M o C cd o •H H rd o CO tin !» c r" -P id cd cd CD o W H •p a 0) bn o fi ^ •H (L) M Ph o o o !>> •p •H o •H on t— C\J r— LTN L^ CO ON M VO CO cm o OJ CM C\J OJ o -3- -3" -=r i/\ on LTN. 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Single Family Residence, Investment and Life-cycle Cost ($) 50% Solar Dependency a) Heating/Cooling Region and System 1975 1985 b) Investment 15-Year Life-Cycle Investment 15-Year Life-Cycle West Coast Santa Maria, Calif. 3650 5820 2840 6640 Solar Heating and Cooling Solar Heat Pump - - - - Solar Heating Only 2540 3500 1970 3730 Conventional Heating and Cooling 2220 5020 2850 8100 Conventional Heating Only 1110 2530 1420 4110 Northeast Wilmington, Del. Solar Heating and Cooling 8810 12700 6850 13800 Solar Heat Pump 4800 9930 3740 13400 Solar Heating Only 4220 5860 3290 6300 Conventional Heating and Cooling 2220 7600 2850 13200 Conventional Heating Only 1140 3420 1460 5870 a) Source: Ref. k. b) Between 1975 and 1985 the energy price is assumed to increase at 1% per year; the equipment price, 5%. U2 Table 3-h. Estimates of Energy Savings by SHAC in Residential and Commercial Buildings (total U.S. ) Source 12 Energy saved (10 Btu/yr) 1980 1985 1990 Reference .) NSF/NASA, 1972 Westinghouse, 197^ a) a) 6 TRW, 197^ 10 a) General Electric, 197^ 10 170 - 110 300 100 200 100 200 Maximum obtainable b) 2000 Projected total U.S. 100 x 10 Energy (Btu/yr) 15 113 x 10 15 127 x 10 15 a) Estimates include predictions of economic acceptability. b) Estimated by us assuming 2/3 of new consumption has 50% solar dependence, U3 References - Section 3. 1. "Patterns of Energy Consumption in the United States", Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C., January 1972, U.S. Government Publication hl06 - 003^. 2. Harvey Hirning, Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Illinois, phone conversation, 15 November, 191 h . 3. "Solar Heating and Cooling of Buildings", NSF-RA-N-7l*-022A, Executive Secretary, Final report to the National Science Foundation, TRW Systems Group, Redondo Beach, California , May, 197^. k. Same as Ref. 3, except NSF-RA-N-7 i +-023A, Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Baltimore, Maryland, May 191 h. 5. G. L8f, testimony in hearings before the Subcommittee on Energy of the Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives, June 7, 1973. Contained in committee print on Solar Energy for Heating and Cooling, U.S. Government Printing Office, Document 23-1^90. Lfif is a prime source; most economic work is done in collaboration with R. Tybout. d. Same as Ref. 3, except NSF-RA-N-7 1 +-021A, Document No. 7^5Dli219, General Electric Company, Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, May, 19lk. 7. Quoted in Table 8-2 in TERRASTAR (Technical Application of Solar Technology and Research), Final Report CR-129012, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, September, 1973. The original document is P. Donovan and W. Woodward, "An Assessment of Solar Energy as a National Energy Resource", NSF/NASA Solar Energy Panel, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, December, 1972. kk l + • Comparison of Energy Efficiency of Home Heating Sources . To employ a horrible cliche, there has been more heat than light produced by the proponents of the several modes of home heating. Recently the two most vociferous antagonists have been the gas industry and the electric industry, each with studies which purport to show that their method of heating is vastly superior to any other in terms of efficiency and/or cost. There are methodological problems in the evidence presented by both sides, but after a careful review of the evidence we find that fossil fuel home heating plants are superior in overall efficiency to electric heat pump installations, with electric resistance heat running a poor third. The points in dispute include the following: 1) In what units shall energy requirements be expressed? 2) What sort of "efficiency" rating is relevant to a com- parison of overall energy requirements? 3) What confounding factors need to be experimentally con- trolled when different homes equipped with different heating systems are compared? h) How well are home heating plants maintained, and to what extent does a lack of maintenance lower efficiency? In regard to l) above, as in the rest of this report the energy requirements of different systems are compared not in terms of energy consumed by the device in the home, but in terms of primary energy requirements , through suitable conversion factors which take into account the energy lost in extracting the fuel from the ground, converting it to a usable form, and delivering it to final demand. These losses differ with differ- ent fuels and forms of energy. For example, to deliver one Btu to the home in the form of electricity instead of gas requires about 3.3 times as much primary energy to start with (see Table U-l). Because of this gross disparity in efficiency of delivery between the different forms of energy, a gas or oil home heating plant in effect has a head start over an electric system. Of course, these energy efficiency h5 coefficients for the various forms of energy provide no informa- tion about their availabilities . A homeowner's choice of fuel is largely governed by what he can get: currently in many regions of Illinois the utility companies have long waiting lists for residential gas heating connections, and heating oil is subject to scarcity as during the Arab oil boycott. But no source is immune to the energy shortage, since oil and gas for electric generation are likewise subject to shortages and even coal could come into short supply if an extended miner's strike occurred. The second area of confusion involves the meaning of "effi- ciency." A shortsighted approach merely considers the heat delivered through the output orifice of a device relative to the energy input to the device under laboratory conditions. For electric resistance heating this efficiency is ucually taken as 100$. The corresponding "bonnet efficiency" of a gas furnace must be not less than nor much more than 75$ for it to receive the American Gas Associations 's approval. But this figure is quite meaningless for the purposes of this study, for two rea- sons. First, in an actual home installation bonnet efficiency may be lower due to lack of cleaning and adjustment and to the intermittent nature of operation. On the other hand, the heat supplied to the heating ducts is not all the heat input the system gives to the house. Studies over a period of several decades at the University of Illinois and elsewhere by such men as Seichi Konzo , W.S. Harris, and others have found [1,2] that the radiation from the chimney and from the furnace itself comprises a significant portion of the total heat input to the house. Thus "seasonal utilization efficiency," which is equal to the total heat input to the house from the heating system divided by the heat content of the fuel used, averaged over the entire heating season, is the most relevant statistic in this inquiry. k6 The "utilization efficiency" for a heating system times the "delivery efficiency" equals the "overall efficiency." Table U-l gives these figures for the different means of heating, and is therefore the "results". This brings us to the third area of controversy: what vari- ables must be controlled for a comparison of utilization efficiencies heating systems to be meaningful? The need for such experimental control becomes evident when one compares studies done by the electric industry which find the utilization efficiency of gas furnaces to average 39% [h 1 with tables from the gas industry which list a "typical utilization efficiency" of 75% [5]. Table U-2 lists the utilization efficiencies given by different sources. The low figures for fossil fuel efficiency (for example, as given by Dunning), which ma^e electric heat look relatively less wasteful, are much too low because of a failure to recognize that less than the nor- mal amount of heating gas would be burned in the hypothetical home's furnace during the winter if the high amount of appliance electricity assumed were actually used by the occupants! We have reviewed other organizations' results which also indicate low seasonal efficiencies. We find that these always result from failure to control for one or more of the following variables: the lifestyles of the inhabitants, the amount of insulation, the amount of fresh air introduced into the house, the thermostat settings, the size, construction, and orientation of the living unit, etc. Merely comparing gas consumption in gas heated dwellings to electrical consumption in electrically heated dwellings provides no basis for comparing the relative efficiencies of the heating plants. The figure used for comparisons in this report is 70% seasonal efficiency for both gas and oil furnaces, properly installed and receiving the normal degree of maintenance. This figure is said to be a reasonable and conservative one by the experts consulted (Konzo and Harris). It is based upon years of hi careful experimentation at the research residences of the University of Illinois. Now we turn to the question of maintenance and its effect on efficiency. Certainly a furnace can get dirty or out of ad- justment to the point that its heat output is nil. Some pro- ponents of electric heat point out that furnaces require (and don't get) maintenance, but they neglect the fact that heat pumps also require periodic maintenance to remain functional. The Tennessee Valley Authority, though a strong proponent of electric heat pumps, makes the following recommendation: "We recommend that a good serviceman make a preventive maintenance inspection and service your unit once, or preferably twice each year. By doing this he can make all the n ecessary routine ad- justments and servicing of the entire system and can often spot minor troubles which, if left uncorrected, may lead to major repair bills" [6 ]. (Emphasis added) They admit that "some heat pumps have had a poor performance record in the past," but state that "there are good heat pumps being manufactured today which will give many years of reliable, economic service, if they are properly in- stalled and maintained. " (Emphasis added) A TVA official is quoted [6 ] as stating that even a well made heat pump may not function efficiently unless it is installed and serviced by dealers having special advanced training. Heat pump.? function best in mild climates. They are usually backed up by ordinary electric resistance heating coils when the outside temperature is particularly low. Thus, a heat pump is a more attractive method for someone in Cairo, Illinois with 382 heating degree days than for someone in Rockford with 6830 degree days. In colder areas the advantage of a heat pump over simple electric resistance heating diminishes but the heat pump is always more efficient than resistance heating if working properly . All heating plants need periodic maintenance to work efficiently. All are not equally sensitive to a lack of main- tenance, however, as oil furnaces and heat pumps suffer more from neglect than do gas furnaces and electric resistance heaters . U8 Conclusion The merits of the various systems for heating Illinois homes stack up as follows. Gas central heating is the method of choice from an energy standpoint, but it is not available to new customers in many parts of the state at this time. Other fossil fuel furnaces follow in overall efficiency. Stoker fired bituminous coal furnaces are relatively efficient, but tend to pollute and may not be acceptable to a large portion of the population. Oil furnaces are also efficient, but require more maintenance then do gas units, and tend to pollute more when they are first starting up. (Actually, within our limits of accuracy, gas, coal, and oil furnaces are really equivalent in efficiency.) Heat pumps are next on the list. The efficiency of these units varies with the climate as noted above. In the distant or not so distant future, when the scarcity of all fossil fuels prevents their being burned, heat pumps will undoubtedly be the heating method of choice. A state operated certification program for heat pump installers and servicemen, like that of TVA, would increase consumer acceptance. Electric resistance baseboard heating is at the bottom of the list in terms of overall efficiency. Its advantages include low first cost, quiet, clean operation, and low maintenance, along with sensitivity to local temperature changes and more adjustibility due to the multiplicity of thermostats. The efficiencies of the fossil fuel heating plants could be increased somewhat in several ways. One is by eliminating pilot lights in favor of electric igniters, as noted in another section. Another is by adding heat-recovery units to the flue, to recover the heat going up the chimney. The problem here is that recovering too much heat will lower the smoke temperature so much that there will be an inadequate draft. ■ The same effect • could be achieved by increasing the heat exchange surface in the furnace itself, boosting the bonnet efficiency considerably. Again, this is not done because the draft would be decreased. Actually, a chimney such as an interior chimney in a two story house, already acts as a "heat recovery" device, radiating much 1*9 heat to the house. Flue dampers have also been suggested to decrease heat loss through the stack, but extraordinarily re- liable units would have to be developed before they could be employed without running the risk of asphyxiation. One desir- able change is the elimination of the practice now employed in some installations, of getting combustion air from the heated living area. This practice may save expensive ductwork when the furnace is installed, but it may lead to an unnecessarily high rate of vent- ilation, when cooking odors or tobacco smoke are not a problem. It should be noted in closing that total energy systems or integrated utility systems may be the best system for the future, with the heat usually wasted in electric generation put to work heating or cooling homes built around the power plant, but these systems were not to be reviewed in this report. At present, they are impractical for single family residential application. 50 Source Table k-1. Efficiency {%) of Residential Heat Sources Delivery a.] Efficiency Utilization Overall Efficiency Notes Coal (Bituminous Stoker Fired) Oil Gas Electric (Resistance) Electric (Heat pump) b) 98.6 83.9 86.2 25.8 25.8 60 TO 59 58 c) TO 60 100 26 138 36 to 203 to 52 c) Coal pollutes. Requires mainten- ance. Soot reduces efficiency greatly. May be scarce. Possible advantage in individual room thermostats . Efficiency is lowest in coldest climates. a) Ref. 3 b) Heat pumps do have efficiencies greater than 100$, and this is not a violation of the First Law of Thermodynamics! c) Practically speaking, these are equal. 51 "65. < 0\ ro CO •H M o M N Cd -4" Pi ffi C— o On M 08 h O O o o On •p cd M -P •H ^! -P •H t> •H CO cd 3 K W Eh O Pi t— •H C- LTN a _=t- -=T | 1 LTN Q en ^^ J s t- O o E— NO t— o t— o vo o On On CO On CO On t— O H H 1 H 1 H 1 t— O v— • O — - O On m t— t— LTN o -p CO oo on h o OJ M c •H -p cd 0) CD o m o bD Pi W CO cd O m vo Lf\ LTN o UN vo o ON CM H CM CO £ xi to o P 01 •H Pi H •P k CO o r^ •H ■H fl H M H a -p cd o •H o •H O ■p o o 3= o CO o o 08 CO CD £ «U cd Si o o ON P! a « M • M o •• M * o cd £0 •H O 5 OK? cd cd £ H M ^ +5 CO •H CO CD K p- H | cd a M -p -p CI cd 0) CD o W o . o •M W •H M PI M -p •H ■P a -P CJ CD cd CD H CD rH W tn H CD cd Ph -p X CD PI PI O CD M cd co CD CJ M o co o -p co CD O a CD M CD «m M rH -P H -P rH O < pq Cm to •H to cd to H M tt 3 •H CD > H cd fl C/J cd c b & fc -p 0) 0) p K W a rH •H cti 3 0) C fn a CD to * tu on bfl i cd o ^ i CD y\ > CD cd pq rH P a) EH „ CO rH CM bO M en C VI 1 • •H Cm o > O cd CO 12 OJ • H ^ rH 3 1 • a; O -P CO C rH PQ H w V___^ / ' H -3- rH vo CM ,r— V M ir\ • ,0 V5. • O fd Vh o «m cd 3 c c & 1 -p CD K CO CD rH -p -p o ,Q vo • * — V On ■p as • CD O o o U H 1 -— c o a CO •H CO o CD C t-\ •H .o t-\ cd H a M u C •p °H CD CO V5. CD O O H O -P ^ cd H ITN ca & H ^ O on CD -P II t— •P -H ON S3 H - cd c i -p •> CD -p u CD X to fn CO cd cd 6 H bO O ■p vt o to o CD H bO cd o *H -p CD > J2 CD CJ .a -p S CO •H •P M U CD O -P p. » •H cd > ^J tj bO O CD C -p -P •H cd CO TJ •H O CD O ft fi O to 3 to •H to CO -d to cd M a) & o to CD U -d H CD C § r=> cd CD c H bO C & H •H +3 cd c CD to a >H CD -p +> tj CD c 3 M CD H to O TJ CD a C U H cd S 67 References - Section 5-C 1. B. Hannon, "System Energy and Recycling; A study of the Beverage Industry", Document No. 23, Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois, March 1973. 2. P. Atkins, "Energy Requirements to Produce the All-Aluminum Beverage Can", No. 73-53, for presentation at the 65th Annual meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association., Miami Beach, Florida, June, 1972. 3. R. Hunt and W.Franklin, "Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis of Nine Beverage Container Alternatives", Draft Final Report, MRI Project 379^-D (2 volumes), Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri, 6 February, 197^+. h. H. Folk, "Two Papers on the Effects of Mandatory Deposits on Beverage Containers", Document No. 73, Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois, January 1973. 68 5-D. Recycling of Auto Hulks We draw here on the results of Berry and Fels, [l] who have sub- jected the manufacture of the cars to a detailed process analysis (inci- dentally, we have analyzed the car by a completely different method and agree with Berry and Fels to about 20%). Recycling of the metal in the car is subject to a typical problem in that 100% recycling of all steel is not possible for one technology: the blast furnace can accept no more than about 15% scrap to iron ore ratio. However, the electric furnace can accept up to 100% scrap, but currently electric furnaces are not the major steel producers. An auto requires about 126 million Btu to manufacture (1967). Including the energy of some modest transportation of the scrap, between 3^ and UU million Btu per car could be saved by 100% recycling (27-35%, or an average of about 30%. ) In 1973 about 723,000 new cars were registered in Illinois. [2] If these were made from 100% recycled metals,* approximately 30% of the normal energy of manufacture could have been saved. This totals 0. 67% of Illinois' energy budget. Of course much of this energy would be saved outside of Illinois, since steel production is concentrated elsewhere. * Since the number of cars manufactured in the U.S. is not growing very fast; there is not a practical limit to the number of cars available for recycle. Also, there is now a stock of junked cars from past years. This contrasts with the situation for aluminum in Section 5-B. 69 References - Section 5-D 1. R.S. Berry and M. Fels, "The Production and Consumption of Automobiles", report to the Illinois Institute for Environmental Quality, July, 1972. 2. 1973-7^ Automobile Facts and Figures Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the U.S., TO 6. Energy Savings by Modal Shifts in Passenger Transportation Between Selected Illinois Cities . A. For Illinois in general. Intercity plane and auto trips within Illinois are seldom longer than 250 miles and usually much less. For intercity trips not exceeding this length, train and bus could be competive in total time with plane and car. This is especially true for trips connecting downtown areas of cities, where there are problems of transit to and from the airport if one flies, and of finding parking and experiencing rush hour traffic jams if one drives. Many studies have been performed on the energy intensity of passenger trans- portation modes. There is wide variability of results due to many factors, but a definite consensus seems to emerge: plane and car are the most energy intensive modes of travel (See Table 6-1 ) We have therefore asked what energy could be saved in Illinois if certain changes in ridership generally in the direction toward trains and bus occured in intercity travel. (We have deliberately not dealt with intracity traffic, for which much work has been done .) In order to stay within the scope of our present effort, we have looked at only the 9 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) in Illinois (See Table 6-2 and Fig. 6-1 ) We have attempted to quantify present traffic between them by mode and then have made "reasonable" assumptions about future modal shifts. We note that these SMSA's all at present have connecting tracks and roads, so that very little new roadbed, etc, is needed for the shifts to be possible. (An exception is the Springfield-Champaign train which would require a spur betwen two rail lines which currently cross but don't connect). What would be needed, at the minimum, is upgrading of old facilities (track) to accomodate the traffic especially so that the train could run at reasonable speed and on time. In Table 6-3 we present yearly data for current (1973 or 197*0 passenger travel between the SMSA's for air, rail, and auto. Bus data proved much harder to get; we decided not to press, since this is relatively unimportant because we wish to investigate shifts in the direction of buses, not away from them. 71 The maximum total amount of energy at stake here is that now used by- planes and cars for the inter-SMSA trips. From the data in Appendix 6 -A we tabulate this in Table 6-3. We find that this is only about Q.l6% of Illinois use (for fuel only, not including indirect effects). Of this, the largest share accrues to the automobile, which accounts for about 88% of the inter-SMSA passenger mileage and 75% of the fuel energy used [h] The remaining energy (25%) is almost exclusively for air travel. Plane and auto show different geographical patterns, however (see Appendix 6-A): 79% of the plane energy for all travel between Illinois SMSAs is for the Chicago - St Louis flight alone, while this trip accounts for only about 2h% of the auto energy and 31% of the train energy. The longer trip offers more incentive to fly - no surprise. Notice the role of commuter aircraft between Springfield or Danville and Chicago. We now compare energy saved if certain changes in modal shifts occurred, but with no growth in total passenger trips. In doing this we have used a straight "average" energy approach. This is potentially inaccurate because of the question of changing load factors. For example, new passengers on half-empty buses get a ride that's practically energy-free ; (increasing load factors beyond those shown in Table 6-1 is an energy conservation strategy of its own). Nonetheless the "average" approach offers a good indication of energy savings, and, for the entire state, was the best we could do without much additional data -gathering on specific trains, planes, and bus runs. In Table 6-k we list results of several modal shifts. • The radical shift, completely away from planes and autos for intercity travel, reduces the inter-SMSA travel energy by U3%, but knocks only 0.07% from Illinois' total energy requirement. A more reasonable possibility in which 20% of car passengers shift to bus and train, and 50% of plane travelers shift to the train, reduces intra-SMSA travel energy by lk% and Illinois energy budget by about 0.02%. These changes are large as percentages of the inter-SMSA transportation energy, but rather small as percentages of Illinois energy budget. 72 B. Two Specific Examples: Chicago - Springfield and Chicago - Champaign ■ These were chosen because they now have a large commuter plane traffic (counting the Danville - Chicago flights) and because of the possibility of Illinois state government influence over some of the traffic (State employees, University of Illinois employees). Table 6-5 lists current energy use and Table 6-6 gives energy savings from specific modal shifts. From Table 6-6, we see that "reasonable" shifts toward train and buses would reduce transportation energy for the two city pairs by about 10$. A note on energy intensities: In the calculations in the Appendix we used these: auto, 3000 Btu/pass. mi. intercity; plane, 10,000 Btu/pass. mi. (if anything an underestimate because of short stage length in Illinois: See Table 6-1); train, 2300 Btu/pass. mi.; bus, 1^00 Btu/pass. mi. We worried about whether a commuter plane's energy intensity would differ radically, but after checking with Allegheny Airlines about their Danville - Chicago flight, we realized that 10,000 Btu/ pass. mi. is reasonable for the commuter flights , too. 73 Table 6-1 Energy Intensities for Passenger Travel (direct use)' Mode Btu/pass.mi if load factor 100$ Actual Load Factor Actual Btu/pass.mi c) . Urban , >, Auto _ . ., b) Intercity Urban >. Bus _ . . , c) Intercity m . Electric commuter Train _ . .. c) Intercity Scheduled fi.00 mi. lane Stage Length/200 mi. pOO mi. e) Commuter (15 pass, 130 miles) 2300 1700 900 700 600 900 8500 6000 1+000 1+250 1.9 2.9 f) f) 31% 31% 50% 5200 3000 3000 1U00 2000 2300 17000 12000 8000 8500 a) Total energy impact may be as much as 70$ higher than amount shown here due to indirect effects (manufacture of car, plane, etc.) b) For average car, which gets about 13 mpg. in average driving. See ref. 1 c) Ref. 2 d) Note difference between stage, (or "hop 1 ' ) and trip length. Mucn energy is needed in taking off . ( Ref. 3)> so that airplane energy intensiveness is much higher for short hops. e) Data given are for Allegheny Airlines Commuter operations in Illinois and Indiana. The plane is a 2 engine Beech 99- Allegheny's load factor averages kh%, with 60% for the Danville-Chicago run (Albert Tingley, Allegheny Airlines, Terre Haute, Indiana, phone conversation 22 October, 197^). Passengers per car including driver. f) 7^ ILLINOIS Counties, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and Selected Places 10 ROCKFORD JO OAVIC&S I ITt'MIMSON | . wi«»tt*GO I O .» I* 00 "' — — ^r CUKOLL KKKfOK) OCLI DAVENPORT ROCK ISLAND MOLINE DC KAl* O CHICAGO \ I J of j •>«»*; ton Hficwrs .... t^n" oT n ® * a LEGEND Places of 100,000 Of more inhabitants Places of 50.000 to 100.000 inhabitants Central cities of SMSAs with (ewer than 50.000 inhabitants Places of 25.000 to 50.000 inhabitants outside SMSAs Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) 10 Fig. 6-1 Illinois SMSA' 15-321 75 Table 6-2 SMSA's Treated in this work 5 1. Chicago 2. St. Louis 3. Moline - Rock Island - Davenport, la. k. Peoria 5. Rockford 6. Springfield 7. Champaign - Urbana 8. Decatur 9. Bloomington - Normal a) Unfortunatly Carbondale is not considered as an SMSA, 76 Table 6-3 Current Inter-SMSA Passenger Traffic a) Mode Energy Intensity (Btu/Pass.mi ) s. Trips/yr. Pass .mi/yr . Energy /yr. % do 6 ) do 9 ) ( lo12 \ Illinois I Btu. ) Energy /vr. Auto 1 3000 1U0 1.6 U.9 0.12 Plane 10000 0.67 0.15 1.5 o.oU Train 2300 0.36 0.070 0.16 0.001+ Bus lfcoo 0*> o.oiU b) 0.022 h > 0.0005 t Total 1 1.83 6.58 0.165 a) Figures are from single years in period 1973-7^. b) ¥e were unable to obtain good bus data and hence estimated bus figures on the basis of air data using Hirst [l, Table 9 ]• Estimates are very rough. 77 Table 6-U Energy Saved by Several Modal Shifts in Passenger Travel Between Illinois SMSA's Measure Energy Savings as % of inter-SMSA use Energy Savings as y of Illinois use Shift all plane trips to train Shift all auto trips so that one-half use train, one-half use bus Sum of measures 1 and 2; a complete abandonment of auto and plane between the SMSA's Shift 50% of b) plane trips to train Shift 20% of auto trips to half-train, half-bus Sum of h and 5 17 26 U3 8.5 5.1 13.6 0.03 0.0*+ 0.07 0.011+ 0.0082 0.022 a) Based on an average energy per pass. mi. approach; See text. b) Roughly 60% of plane trips are for business (D. Pilati, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Personal communication, 22 October 197M c) This allows for direct fuel use only. Indirect effects would increase 'these figures by ^0 to 70% (20% is required for the energy cost of extracting, refining, and transporting refined petroleum products , for example. ) 78 Table 6-5 Comparison of Types of Auto, Plane, and Train Tr avel For Chicago - Springfield and Chicago - Champaign (yearly basis) Chicago - Springfield ( a 190 Miles) 3 12 Passengers (10 ) Energy (10 Btu) Chicago - Champaign (= 130 Miles) 3 12 Passengers (10 ) Energy (10 Btu) Auto Plane Train Bus Total 620 37 (12) 57 b) 0.36 0.06U (0.023) 0.02U 0.0009 1 * 0.U5 760 20 (9.M 63 0.30 b rO b > c ) D ' C; 0.026(0.012) 0.019 0.00038' 0.35 d) (a) These are origin/destination. Flights to Chicago to connect with flights out of state are not listed. (b) Commuter airlines in parenthesies . (c) Most of this commuter traffic is Danville - Chicago , actually outside the SMSA. (d) Rough estimate: See footnote b of Table 6-3 79 Table 6-6. Energy Saved by Several Modal Shifts a) in Passenger Travel Between Illinois SMSA's End Points Measure Energy Savings as % of Total Transportation Energy between end points Springfield - Chicago 1. Shift all commuter flights to trains 2. Shift 50$ of all plane flights to train 3. Shift 20$ of auto trips to half train, half bus k. Sum of 2 and 3 3.9 5.5 6.1 11.6 Champaign - Chicago 5. Shift 50$ of plane flights to train 6. Shift 20$ of auto trips to half train, half bus 7. Sum of 5 and 6 2.9 6.6 9.5 a) See footnotes a and c of Table 6-k 80 Appendix 6-A. Transportation data (auto, plane, train ) These are listed on the printouts. Sources are indicated. 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LU CL h- or LL _1 < c/> u. CJ LU o C? h- O Z LU CJ > cc i— . < o o O o o o 11 1 or. r-4 u^ TO o*> o z o ft-ft a 1 • • • • • •— < CC LU Lf\ LO co CT> O II LU a. r5 a: i/i IU IV i/i T X •cr s >>- • ca -p to IH a; •H -P Cm « -P •H CO 0) nd > o 0) a <• — > 10 o H ■p •H cd C -P ■P ft V CJ C 0) ft •H CJ O co -p •rH -p CL) «H HP «h cd #N O) ^s co -p >j M a to & cd !h H CD pi ft fi •p • w pq M 0) 0) CJ II II |> •H O M Ph P, ft W PI a H •H cd CO o CU !H 10 QJ CO S o g H O o ro co a . TJ bfl Cm ^ cd CU H IH Ph o M <3! /) ^-i <\j ro .J- in 103 Table 7-C-3. Energy Saved by Using Lowest Annual Dollar Cost a) As Criterion in Choosing Air Conditioner r = 0.10 r = 0.10 s = 0.00 s = D.10 Size (Btu/hr) Rank b ' c) Energy Savings Rank b ' th r~. C ) Energy Savings {% ) 6,000 1 10 1 10 8,000 3 k 3 k 10,000 2 23 2 23 12,000 1 26 1 26 lU,000 2 30 1 36 18,000 1 25 1 25 a) r= interest rate on loan s= rate of increase of energy cost b) Rank in order of increasing annual energy cost. c) Energy savings expressed as % of device with lowest first (capital) dollar cost. ioU APPENDIX 7-C-l AMORTIZED DOLLAR COSTS We include effects of bank interest rate and increasing energy price. Let C. = initial (capital) cost of device (dollars). C = operational cost per year (dollars). r = bank interest rate (per year). s = inflation rate on energy price (per year). N = lifetime of device (years). p = levelized annual cost (dollars). The object is to find the annual payment assuming the cost per year is constant. One way to state this is "the constant yearly payment over the lifetime you must make to a credit bank which covers all the expenses." Thus C 1 (1 + r) N + C 2 (1 + r) N +C 2 (1 + s) (l + r) N_1 +C 2 (1 + s) 2 (1 + r) N " 2 + C 2 (1 + s) N_1 (1 + r) = p + p (1 + r) + p (1 + r) Apply the geometric series formula: o -i n 2 n-1 a- am a + am+am + ... am. = 1- m to obtain L (1 nN _ /, L n [ (1 + rf - (1 + s) N p=< v C(l + r) +C(l + r) I r - s (1 + r) N -l If r = s = C l P - -— + n , as expected. N 2' ^ 105 Appendix 7-C-2. Air Conditioner Calculation Details . Hours of operation per year are estimated for central Illinois (an average of Chicago and Kansas City). Data are from Ref. h and correspond to a thermostat setting of 80° F. Following GSA, we multiplied by 0.7 to account for office use (kO hour week) instead ' of residential use. KWh use was then obtained from KWh _ hours rating (Btu/hr ) i 1000 yr. yr. EER where EER is energy efficiency ratio from Ref. 3. EER is measured in Btus of cooling per hour divided by wattage. We worried about whether this EER should be adjusted for seasonal effects, or for the question of a continuously operating fan, but decided tc use EER as given. (These factors can multiply the EER by from 0.7 to 1.2; See Ref. k ). io6 References -Section 7 1. Harinon, B. "System Energy and Recycling: "A Study of the Beverage Industry", Document No. 23, Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois, Urbana. Revised March, 1973 2. Herendeen, R. and C. W. Bullard, "Energy Cost of Goods and Services", manuscript, July, 197^. 3. Moyers, J., "The Room Air Conditioner as an Energy Consumer", ORNL-NSF-EP-59, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, October 1973. h. Letter, Roger Carlsmith, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to Alan Whelihan, USGSA, 2 August, 19lh. 5. Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers "Directory of Certified Room Air Conditioners", issued quarterly, Chicago, Illinois. This contains EER's but not prices. Not used as a source in this study. 6. Peter Unger, U.S. General Services Administration, Washington, D.C, is a contact in the GSA. 107 8. Energy Used/Wasted By Gas Yard Lights, Gas Pilot Lights, and Instant-on Television Sets . These three devices consume energy continuously whether or not they are serving their primary functions. The energy is used for convenience, for aesthetic reasons, or to achieve a lower initial cost. 8-A. Gas Lawn Lights Mr. Robert Griffith of the American Gas Association estimates (phone conversation, August, 197*0 the current population of con- tinuously running decorative gas yard lights in the U.S.A. to be four million. Scaled down to the population of Illinois, this would imply 220,000 gas lights, [1] each consuming 19.2 x 10 12 Btu/year [2] for a total consumption of k.2 x 10 Btu/year, which is 0.10$ of Illinois' estimated current energy consumption. (For comparison, a typical gas heated home uses about 150 x 10 Btu yearly for the furnace. ) It has been noted [3] that a decorative gas yard light could be re- placed by a photocell-controlled electric yard lights of the same brightness with a yearly saving of approximately 1.8 x 10 Btu per installation. An- other comparison [4] states that each gas light consumes 20 times the power of an equivalent 25 watt electric light bulb, at point of use. Decorative gas lights thus cannot compete with electric lights on an efficiency basis. Assuming all lawn gas lights to be replaced with a switchable electric lamp of equal brightness, 0.10$ of Illinois' energy budget could be saved. 8-B. Gas Pilot Lights About 1% of Illinois' energy budget is consumed by pilot lights, as shown in Table 8-B-l. The question is "How much of this is wasted?" The American Gas Association (AGA) admits the gas used by clothes dryer pilot lights is wasted, since dryers are normally located in un- h'eated areas, but it claims that only a quarter of the gas used by pilots on water heaters, ranges, and furnaces is wasted. The claim for useful- ness of the pilot goes as follows: any time the outdoor temperature is lower than the "normal" indoor temperature of 68 , heat produced by the pilot lights helps keep the house warm and reduces the amount of heat L08 needed from the furnace. This claim is questioned by Consumer Reports [6] which notes that pilots may actually require extra cooling in the summer. Warren G. Harris and Seichi Konzo [7] (August, 1973, interview) note that in modern homes heat from the furnace may not be needed until the outside temperature is in the 50' s, due to insulation and heat given off by persons, lights, and appliances other than pilots. We list the savings possible if we accept AGA's views, noting that it is extremely likely that the actual savings are higher. The results are in Table 8-B-2. Assuming AGA's values, we see that at least about 0.30$ of Illinois total energy use is wasted in residential pilot lights. The actual figure could be as high as about 0.1+5%. 109 Table 8-B-l. Energy Used By Residential Gas Pilot Lights in Illinois, 1973 Range Water heater Dryer Space heating Totals Pilot use per year (10 5 Btu/unit) 35 22 31 70 Pilot use for all units c) in Illinois % Saturation 10 Btu/year 77.1 78.8 12.8' Ih.k 9.96 6.ho 1.1* 19.2 37.0 Total primary % of total Energy use primary use 12 10 Btu/year in Illinois 11.7 0.28 7.5 0.18 1.7 0.0k 22.5 0.55 1+3.1* 1.05 a) AGA's Robert Griffith says (July 12, 197** telephone call) that half have electric igniters already. Therefore, saturation is taken as half that in the census reports. b) U.S. Census of Housing, 1970, United States Summary, l-(256), 111. c) Equal to (use per unit) x (% saturation) x (number of households in Illinois). Clyde Bridger of the Illinois Department of Public Health estimates 3,692,000 households in Illinois as of July 197 1 *. d) Includes the additional energy needed to get the fuel (gas in this case) to the final demand (equal to the direct use x 1.17, Reference 5). 110 Table &-B-2 Energy Wasted In Residential Gas Pilot Lights In Illinois Pilot usage 10 12 Btu/yr % Wasted 10 Btu wasted % of 111. Range 11.7 Water Heater 7.5 Gas Dryer 1.7 Space Heating 22.5 TOTALS 25 25 100 25 2.91 1.87 1.71 5.62 12.11 0.071 0.0U6 0.0U2 0.137 0.296 a) This assumes that one-half of gas dryers already have electric ignition. Ill 8-C. Instant-On Television Sets Instant-on televisions appeared in the i960 ' s and quickly attained wide acceptance. A large tube type color set at tnat time without the instant-on feature consumed about 660 kwhr per year, assuming 6 hours viewing time per day at 300 watts of power usage [8] . The instant-on feature fed a constant low voltage to the tube filaments to keep them warm, incidentally prolonging tube life, but consuming 30 watts [9] continuously whether or not the set was turned on. This amounted to 263 Kwhr/year for the instant-on feature of a typical set of the mid 1960's. Today's large screen solid state color television has no fila- ments to keep warm except in the picture tube and perhaps the rectifier, so that the set consumes only about 7.5 [10] watts continuously or 66 kwhr/year for the instant-on feature, compared to 200 watts [8] or UUO kwhr/year for total normal power consumption. The instant-on feature thus consumes less energy per set for modern televisions than for those of a decade ago. No accurate estimate can be made about the energy consumed by all the instant-on televisions in Illinois due to the lack of information on the composition of the state's television set pop- ulation. Articles on television receivers in Consumer Reports indicate [11] that the feature appeared in the mid 60's and soon came to be considered a "desirable feature". [12] Eventually almost all consoles had it [13] but the magazine noted it was "wasteful of energy resources and should be abandoned even at the possible cost of somewhat shorter picture tube life". In a possible portent of future moves by other television manufacturers, RCA announced [14] that they were discontinuing the feature on all new RCA television receivers. It therefore seems likely that this energy use will decline through natural attrition in the future. While we are reluctant to try to give an accurate figure for the total energy, we will state a rough one. Very approximately 0.05 to 0.1$ Illinois' energy budget is used today to power the instant-on feature in instant-on television sets. 112 References - Section 8 1. Illinois has 5.5$ of the United States population (1970). 2. "Use of Gas by Residential Appliances," American Gas Association, Arlington, Va. , November, 1972. 3. "PUC Bars Gas Post Light Use," Electrical World , 1 May, 1972. h. S. Rattien, "Energy and the Environment - Electric Power," Council on Environmental Quality, 1973, p. 30. 5. R. Herendeen and C. Bullard, "Energy Cost of Consumer Goods", Manuscript, July, 19lh. This is a slight modification of R. Herendeen, "An Energy Input-Output Matrix for the United States, 1963: User's Guide", Document No. 69, Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois, Urbana, II. 6l801, March, 1973. 6. "Gas and Electric Ranges," Consumer Reports, July, 197^+, p. 529. 7. Konzo and Harris are with the Small Homes Council of the University of Illinois, Urbana, and are prime sources of residential space con- ditioning data. 8. "Annual Energy Requirements of Electric Household Appliances " EEA 201-73, Electric Energy Association, New York, N.Y., 1973. As of August, 197^ s this was their most recent version. 9. Consumer Reports, June, 1971, p. 365. 10. Consumer Reports, June, 197*+ s p. 32. 11. Consumer Reports, January, 1967, p. 11. 12. Consumer Reports, September, 1971, p.52U. 13. Consumer Reports, January, 197*+, p. 33. lU. Consumer Reports, June, 197*+, p.*+33. 113 Review of Uses of Waste Heat From Power Plants and Coal Gasification Plants. Electric power plants reject 60% to 70% of their total thermal input. Coal gasification plants reject 20% to 50% [l]. As discussed in Section 3, the temperature of the rejected heat strongly affects its usefulness. The first question is, therefore, how hot plant effluent can actually be. At normal operating conditions (effluent at - 100° F) , today's electric plants provide these outputs: fossil fuel, 39% electric and h6% hot water ; light water nuclear reactors 33% electric and 6'7% hot water. These can be modified to produce hotter effluents at a sacrifice of electricity-producing efficiency: fossil, 11% electricity and 68% - U00° F heat ; nuclear, 10% electricity and 90% - U00° F heat. [2] We lack the expertise to attempt such a statement for coal gasification. There are many processes; on the average one-half of the waste heat can be recovered in the form of - 115° F hot water. [3] This is a recovery of 10% - 25% of the original energy. Forgetting for a moment the question of dollar cost, we point out that a significant problem in waste heat utilization is balancing the electrical (or gas, for a gasification plant) load with the waste heat load. This has seasonal aspects; presumably winter needs for gas and waste heat go together, while summer needs for electricity don't coincide with waste heat needs (unless the heat is used for absorption air conditioners). This is further complicated by the possibility that the coal gas may be fuel for an electric plant, or the possibility of on-site storage of gas at the gasification plant. As an example, a student project showed that for a typical city, with typical present electricity/heat requirements, using waste heat would save only 8% of the total energy for residential and commercial electricity/heat . [k] Dollar costs of retrofitting structures for use of the heat are. said to be prohibitive. We have made no study, but can believe it. About 15% goes up the stack. lilt The Oak Ridge studies therefore looked only at new cities; they found that residential/commercial use of waste heat from a nuclear power plant would require population densities of 15 to 20 tliousani people per square mile, and all within a 10 mile radius. [2] Some metropolitan power plants sell steam now (e.g., Consolidated Edison in New York City), and there are already some institutional centralized heating plants (e.g., Abbot Steam Plant at the University of Illinois). Otherwise, it is new installations that offer potential. We suggest a few, although we feel no particular expertise here: 1. Heating/cooling systems for residences and commercial buildings, especially apartments and multi-family dwellings. 2. Agricultural applications: a. Heated greenhouses. These have been demonstrated. b. Aquaculture and raariculture. Catfish culture by the Tennessee Valley Authority has been successful. Oyster culture has been tried by Long Island Lighting Company . c. Heating of agricultural buildings, including those for livestock. See Ref. 5. d. Grain Drying. 3. Water quality: a. Desalination - not a problem now in Illinois. b. Purification of waste water by distillation. h. Industry - higher temperature heat (between 1+00° and 500 F) can be used in various applications in petroleum refining and petrochemical production. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has done much work in the field of waste heat utilization. [5] 115 References - Section 9. 1. W. Bodle and K. Vyas , "Clean Fuels From Coal", Oil and Gas Journal » Vol. 72, No. 3 1 *, p. 73, 26 August, 197^. 2. S. Beale, "Total Energy, A Key to Conservation", Consulting Engineer , Vol. XL, No. Ill, p. 180, March, 1973. 3. K. Vyas, Institute of Gas Technology, Chicago, phone conversation, 20 November, 197^. This is a general statement. h. M. Molitor, "Total Energy and Energy Conservation", term paper in Engineering 199 - H, Spring, 197*+. Unpublished. 5. M. Yarosh, et al. , Productive Use of Low Temperature Heat and Waste Heat from Steam Generating Electric Power Plants (A Reviev of the Technical Status and Applications) , Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL Central Files No. CF 71-i|-30, May, 1971.