333.72 NATURAL RESOURCES, CONSUMPTION, AND THE FUTURE: MANAGEMENT REQUIREMENTS The Library of the University ot annuls at Urbana-Chempaign WILLIAM C. BOESMAN Analyst, Science and Technology Science Policy Research Division B633n HF 1045 74-90SP UNIvtrtbllY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBANA'CHAMRAIGN STACKS \ I r* i 333 . 12 . &(o33 r\ CONTENTS Section Page I. Introduction and Summary. 1 II. Natural Resources and Reserves. 5 III. Resource Consumption. 13 IV. Technology, Economics, and National and International Policies. 24 V. Management Problems.28 FIGURES 1. Schematic Relationship of Reserves to Total Resources. 5 2. Availability of Uranium. 8 3. Materials Consumption. 14 4. Materials Base of the U. S. Economy. 22 TABLES 1. Percent Abundance of Major Crustal Elements. 10 2. U. S. and World Recoverable Resource Potential and Reserves. 11 3. U. S. Reserves and Resources of Selected Mineral Commodities. 19 APPENDIX United States Dependence in Imported Materials 30 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2019 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Alternates https://archive.org/details/naturalresourcesOOboes I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY The subject of this paper is the impact of the Nation's population and level of per capita consumption on its natural resources through the year 2000, and the related management requirements imposed by existing and anticipated problems. This complex subject involves interrelationships between (a) such phy¬ sical factors as total natural resources and known materials reserves, population and population growth, and consumption--both U. S. and world-- and (b) such policy factors as the impact of technology, economic pro¬ fitability, and national and international policies on resources availability. The relationship between resources, population, consumption, and the application of human technique has been put into a convenient equation by McKelvey: 1 / L= R x E x I, where P L= society's average level of living measured by its useful consump¬ tion of goods and services; R= society's useful consumption of all kinds of raw materials, includ¬ ing metals, nonmetals, water, soil minerals, biological produce, and so on; E= society's useful consumption of all forms of energy; 1= society's useful consumption of all forms of ingenuity, including political, socioeconomic, and technological ingenuity; and P= people who share in the total product. 1/ V. E. McKelvey. Mineral Resource Estimates and Public Policy. In Brobst, Donald A. and Walden P. Pratt, eds. United States Min¬ eral Resources: Geological Survey Professional Paper 820. Wash¬ ington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1973: 9. CRS - 2 This equation is a useful illustration that per capita standard of living depends upon the availability of both natural resources and human ingenu¬ ity. Since ingenuity is essentially unquantifiable, the equation's predic¬ tive value is limited to qualitative estimates. However, the equation puts the basic relationship between resources and ingenuity into proper per¬ spective and serves as a concise introduction to this paper. Summary 1. There is a very important distinction between the world’s stock of potentially recoverable resources , which is estimated to be very large in relation to anticipated world demand, and reserves, which are known natural resources which are economically recoverable with existing tech¬ nology. Reserves generally represent only a small fraction of total re¬ sources and, for many materials, are smaller than anticipated world de¬ mand in the year 2000. However, reserves of most materials have in¬ creased continually overtime, because of exploration and new technology, and are expected to continue to increase. When shortages develop and resource prices increase, previously known but uneconomical resources become economical to develop at the higher prices. Reserves (known and economically recoverable resources) are thereby increased. 2. U. S. population will probably increase by approximately 50 percent by the year 2000, and world population may double. Per capita consump¬ tion is also increasing dramatically, with U. S. per capita consumption demand possibly doubling by the year 2000. Per capita consumption in the rest of the world is also increasing significantly. Increases in popu¬ lation and per capita consumption contribute approximately equally to the expected several-fold increase in total world consumption demand CRS - 3 for materials in the year 2000 and beyond. Total U. S. materials con¬ sumption may double or triple by the year 2000 with similar trends in the rest of the world. 3. Perhaps the single most important factor in meeting the expected prob¬ lems associated with limited materials availabilities throughout the rest of this century and beyond is human ingenuity. Many persons believe that technological ingenuity will ultimately solve or ameliorate the prob¬ lems of providing sufficient amounts of economically recoverable mate¬ rials. If so, this is a long-term solution. In the short term, the ingenu¬ ity of national political leaders will be increasingly tested as developed nations, like the United States, begin to rely more heavily on foreign reserves of materials. Increased international trade in materials, pos¬ sible materials boycotts and cartels, and balance of payments considera¬ tions appear to be likely short-range problems with which the Congress and the Executive branch will be faced. "Third world" countries, many of which have large reserves of necessary materials, will also increase their materials demands and may also demand a more r equitable"share of world resources than they have received in the past. 4. The above factors suggest that national and international materials management is a useful concept for the world community to undertake. The most immediate priorities for materials management at the nation¬ al political level would seem to be (1) increased knowledge about the world's stock of potentially recoverable materials, reserves, and mate¬ rials consumption, (2) increased support for materials science and tech¬ nology, and (3) the development of policies aimed at conserving, and perhaps developing buffer stocks of, materials which are or may become scarce, or which are imported from politically uncertain supply sources. CRS - 5 II. NATURAL RESOURCES AND RESERVES This section discusses the distinction between total natural resources and known reserves, excluding agriculture, and presents estimates of U. S. and world resources and reserves. A useful schematic description of the relationship between reserves and total resources is shown below. Figure 1. Schematic Relationship of Reserves to Total Resources Identified resources KLStKVfcS ! / t ! / C’ONDI I IONAL KhSOU RCfc'.S •C 3 C/5 I ^ L A — Degree of certainty of existence- EXPLANATION Potential resources - Conditional + Hypothetical + Speculative Source: Brobst, Donald A. and Walden P. Pratt. Introduction. In Brobst, Donald A. and Walden P. Pratt, eds. United States Mineral Resources. Geological Survey Professional Paper 820. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1973: 4. Reserves are identified or known natural resources which are economi¬ cally recoverable with existing technology. Conditional resources are known resources which are uneconomical to recover with existing tech¬ nology. Undiscovered resources of varying degrees of certainty of exis¬ tence make up the remainder of total resources. Although the termino¬ logy used in the literature of resource use is not uniform, the above terminology is both adequate and representative. CRS - 6 The relationships between the boxes comprising Figure 1 are not meant to portray actual natural resource quantities or percentages. Actual re¬ lationships between reserves and total resources are unknown, but esti¬ mates are available and will be discussed below. The relationships be¬ tween reserves and total resources also vary from material to material. An important fact in evaluating both reserves and resources is that both reserves and useful resources have increased steadily over time. Reserves are identified and economically recoverable resources. The amount of known and economically recoverable iron ore, for example, ft has increased dramatically since the beginning of the iron age. It is anticipated that more economically recoverable iron will be found in the future. Thus, reserves of iron have increased and are likely to con¬ tinue to increase for some time, but for how long is unknown. The total amount of iron ore and other elements and minerals in the earth is fixed, of course. However, of that total fixed amount (or total resources), useful resources have also increased over time. For ex¬ ample, before technology was used to reduce bauxite (aluminum oxide) to the metal aluminum, bauxite was a relatively useless resource and, until about 1860, petroleum was a relatively useless resource. Materials science and technology are likely to continue to increase the amounts of useful resources available to mankind in the future. In brief, it is important to distinguish between: -Total natural resources; -Useful natural resources; and -Reserves (known and economically recoverable natural resources). CRS - 7 It is also important to realize that reserves account for only part of known resources. Many known resources are not economically recoverable with existing technology and are not considered to be reserves. As commo¬ dity prices increase and it becomes economically feasible to use previous¬ ly uneconomical resources, reserves increase. The same is true when improved technology contributes to economic feasibility. As an example of the relationship between economics and reserves, the availability of uranium at different prices per pound is shown in the following figure. Another factor bearing on knowledge about reserves is that the pri¬ vate resource companies which prospect for and develop resources may find it in their best commercial interests to understate or be less than diligent in recording reserves under their control for reasons of com¬ petitive advantage and tax benefits. With these caveats in mind, the following paragraphs of this section set forth estimates of U. S. and world resources and reserves. 21 The total mass of the earth is about 6. 5 x 10 tons. In terms of foreseeable mineral recovery, only the crust, oceans, and atmosphere are likely to be sources of materials. The earth's average crustal depth 15 is about ten miles and has about 24, 000 quadrillion (24,000 x 10 ) tons 15 of materials while the oceans account for about 56 quadrillion (56 x 10 ) tons of dissolved minerals (56 percent sodium, 31 percent chlorine, 6. 5 percent magnesium, 2. 5 percent sulfur, 4 percent other) and the at- 15 mosphere accounts for about 5.6 quadrillion (5.6 x 10 ) tons of air (78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 1 percent argon). The crust is the earth's largest storehouse of potentially recoverable resources. Of the total abundance of resources in the crust (24, 000 quadrillion tons). CRS - 8 Figure 2. Availability of Uranium D O CL cc ID CL CO CC < O O 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 oo O 30 UL O 25 UJ i 20 CL 15 10 5 0 ■Aft- CATE - PRICE u 3°8 CATEGORY GORV PER RECOVER¬ NO lbu 3 o 8 ABLE TONS - 1 $ 7 52 30,000 Copper leach solutions 7 8 00 7,100 Uranium vanadium ore 3 8 00 1 TOO Uranderous lignite ore ~ 4 8 00 78.900 Other uranium ore. minable by open pit 5 8 00 73,600 Other uranium ore, minable by underground methods ~ 6 8 00 to 10 00 1.700 Uranium vanadium de|>osits 7 8 00 to 10 00 TOO Uranderous lignite deposits _ 8 8 00 to 10 00 77.500 Other uranium deposits, minable by open pit 9 8 00 to 10 00 TO 300 Other uranium deposits. minable by underground methods to 10 18 86 000 Wet process phosphoric: acid it 10 00 to 15 00 100,000 High cost conventional deposits - t? 15 00 to 30 00 100,000 High cost conventional deposits 13 67 42 64,600 Florida phosphate rock leached /one 14 69 32 T, 557,300 Chattanooga Shale rounded to the nearest hundred tons 2 3 6 7 It- 10 11 L 12 13 14 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 RECOVERABLE U 3 0 8 , THOUSAND TONS Aft- 3,000 3,100 3,150 AVAILABILITY DIAGRAM FOR URANIUM (EXPRESSED AS U 3 0 8 ) If the price of uranium is increased, greater tonnages of ore can be treated profitably to supply world requirements. Low-grade materials such as Florida phosphate deposits and the extensive Chattanooga shales could become commercial sources at a price. Source: “Availa¬ bility of Uranium at Various Prices," U.S. Bureau of Mines Information Circular 8051. Source: Materials Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., June 1973: 4B-6. CRS - 9 12 perhaps about 40 trillion (40 x 10 ) tons, or approximately one millionth of total crustal abundance, is potentially recoverable at current levels of knowledge and technology. ?/ And about 75 percent of this amount is oxygen, silicon, and their compounds. The approximate percentages of the major elements of the earth's crust are shown in the table on the following page. 12 Assuming that 10 trillion (10 x 10 ) tons approximates the total re¬ coverable resource potential of the earth's crust at current levels of know¬ ledge and technology, excluding oxygen, silicon, and their compounds which account for about 30 trillion tons. Table 2 suggests relationships between U. S. and world reserves and the currently estimated recoverable potential of some resources. In summarizing the discussion of resources and reserves, there are three facts to keep in mind: -Reserves (known economically recoverable resources) represent only a small fraction (generally minuscule) of potentially recoverable re¬ sources (see Table 2); -The estimated figure for total potentially recoverable crustal re¬ sources (at current levels of knowledge and technology) represents only about one millionth of estimated total crustal abundance; and -Current knowledge of the amounts of both reserves and total resources is quite limited. 2/ The figure of 40 trillion tons to represent the earth's total potentially recoverable resources is an estimate based upon the table of abundan¬ ces, reserves, and resources found in Erickson, Ralph L. Crustal Abundance of Elements, and Mineral Reserves and Resources. In Brobst, Donald A. and Walden P. Pratt, eds. United States Mineral Resources: Geological Survey Professional Paper 820. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1973: 22-23. Most of the quantitative data used in this paper and elsewhere in the literature on resources and reserves generally represent only approximations and should not be considered to be precise. CRS - 10 Table 1. Percent Abundance of Major Crustal Elements Oxygen 46.60 percent Silicon 27. 72 Aluminum 8. 13 Iron 5. 00 Calcium 3. 63 Sodium 2. 83 Potassium 2. 59 Magnesium 2.09 Subtotal 9'8. ^9' Titanium .44 Hydrogen .14 Phosphorous .12 Manganese . 10 Subtotal 99. 39' Sulfur . 05 Carbon . 03 Chlorine . 03 Rubidium . 03 Fluorine . 03 Strontium . 03 Barium .03 Zirconium . 02 Chromium . 02 Vanadium . 02 Zinc .01 Nickel . 01 Copper .01 Tungsten .01 Lithium .01 Total 99. 73 percent Note: The remaining 61 naturally occurring elements account for about . 25 percent of the earth's crust. Source: Derived from Weast, Robert C. ed. Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, Forty-Eighth Edition. Cleveland, The Chemical Rubber Company, 1967: F-135. CRS - 11 Table 2. United States and World Recoverable Resource Potential and Reserves World Recoverable Resource Potential Reserves 9 United States Recoverable Resource Potential Reserves 9 (billion (10 ) tons (billion (10 )tons) Aluminum 3, 519 1.160 203 . 008 Iron 2,035 87 118 1.800 Titanium 225 . 117 13 . 025 Phosphorus 51 15 2.94 . 931 Manganese 42 . 630 2.45 .001 Fluorine 20 . 035 1.15 . 005 Barium 17 . 076 . 98 . 031 Chromium 3 . 696 . 189 . 002 Vanadium 5 . 010 . 294 . 0001 Source: Erickson, Ralph L. Crustal Abundance of Elements, and Min¬ eral Reserves and Resources. In Brobst, Donald A. and Walden P. Pratt, eds. United States Mineral Resources: Geological Survey Professional Paper 820. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1973: 22-23. CRS - 12 What these facts imply in regard to the availability of resources for the future is that (1) human ingenuity is perhaps the most important aspect of resource recovery and (2) knowledge about resources and reserves should be greatly increased. CRS - 13 III. RESOURCE CONSUMPTION This section discusses total and per capita resource consumption and consumption demand in the United States and the world through the year 2000 and beyond. Resource consumption is a function of total population and consump¬ tion per capita. U. S. population is currently about 210 million. It will probably increase to about 300 million by the year 2000. This growth represents a one percent per year population increase. World population is currently about 3. 6 billion. Many sources esti¬ mate that world population will be about seven b illion by the year 2000. 3 / This represents about a two percent population growth rate for the earth as a whole. Some parts of the world, particularly the developing nations, are increasing at even faster rates. In terms of resource consumption per capita, the United States leads the world. With only about six percent of the world's population, the United States uses about 33 percent of the world's mineral resources 4/ and about 35 percent of the world's energy. _5/ During the last 30 years, the United States has used more minerals and mineral fuels than have all the people of the world previously. 6 / 3 / See, for example, Frejka, Tomas. The Prospects for a Stationary World Population, Scientific American, v. 228, March 1973: 15-23. 4 / Hayes, Earl T. U. S. Minerals Supply, Outlook, and Trends. In U. S. Congress. Senate. Committee on Public Works. Problems and Issues of a National Materials Policy. 91st Congress, 2d Session. December 1970. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1970: 50. 5 / U. S. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. The Energy Outlook for the 1980's. 93d Congress, 1st Session. December 17, 1973. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1973: 8. 6/ McKelvey, p. 11. CRS - 14 U. S. per capita materials consumption has increased significantly since 1900 as indicated by the dollar values shown in Figure 3, below: Figure 3. Materials Consumption MATERIALS CONSUMPTION -- TOTAL AND PER CAPITA ENERGY ANO PHYSICAL STRUCTURE MATERIALS EXCLUDING FOODS 1W0 1969 AT 5 YEAR INURVALS (IN 1967 DOLLARSI Total consumption and per capita con¬ sumption of materials increased at similar rates in the United States during the first seventy years of the decade. Source: Materials Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off. , June 1973: 3-4. CRS - 15 Although the rate of increase may slow down somewhat, per capita con¬ sumption probably will continue to increase through the end of this century and beyond, perhaps doubling the 1973 level by the year 2000, assuming the continued economic availability of most materials. Per capita mate¬ rials consumption in the rest of the developed world also probably will increase several fold. In the developing nations of South America, Africa, and Asia, with about two-thirds of the world's population, significant in¬ creases in per capita resource consumption are probable. TheU.S. share of the world's materials consumption will probably continue to decrease from, for example, 50 percent of the world's mineral output in about 1952 and 33 percent currently 7/ to an even lower percentage in the years ahead. Zero population growth has been suggested as a partial solution to increasing world demands for natural resources. However, it is likely to take decades before zero population growth, as a comprehensive world program, could be implemented through mass education and the use of widespread contraceptive techniques. Many moral, religious, cultural, and governmental issues also would have to be addressed before popu¬ lation control becomes feasible on a large scale. Consequently, many sources indicate that world population will probably double by the year 2000 (to about seven billion) and could double again (to about 15 billion) by 2100 before a stable world population is attained. Thus, the world is faced with the possibility of a four-fold increase in population by about 2100 and rapidly increasing per capita materials consumption, particularly in the developing nations. 7/ Hayes, p. 50. CRS - 16 A few simple and rough calculations indicate possible relative mate¬ rials consumption levels in the United States at the end of the Century. U. S. population increase from 1973 to 2000, about 1. 5 times U. S. per capita consumption increase from 1973 to 2000, about 2 times Total U. S. consumption increase from 1973 to 2000, 2 x 1. 5 = about 3 times In the rest of the developed world, a similar three-fold increase in con¬ sumption demand could be expected by the year 2000. In the developing two-thirds of the world, there will probably be a two-fold increase in consumption demand just due to population increase. Any increase in per capita consumption which the developing nations could manage would increase their total consumption demand that much more. Both population and per capita consumption are exponentially increas¬ ing quantities in the world today. In the United States and other developed nations, per capita resource consumption appears to be increasing at a greater rate than population, while in the developing nations, the reverse may be true. However, both the growth in population and in per capita consumption demand appear to be problems of approximately equal mag¬ nitude, that is, they contribute approximately equally (on an order-of- magnitude basis) to the world's demand for natural resources. In short, population and per capita consumption demand appear to be the two sides of the same coin of increasing total consumption. Of the two major factors of population and per capita consumption de¬ mand, population would appear to be the more critical factor in ensuring long-term resource availability. Theoretically, population could continue to increase until agricultural resources failed to keep up, while per capita CRS - 17 consumption is likely to ultimately level off since human beings have a limited capacity to use material resources, even though the limit may be at a relatively high level. It has been estimated that world agricul¬ tural production using known technology theoretically could be increased from four to eight times over the present level. 8/ However, it is likely that population control on a global scale would be instituted before the agricultural limits of population growth are reached. This control would probably occur because of generally decreasing food availabilities on a per capita basis and increasing food costs, regional famines, national aggressions caused by the internal pressures of overpopulation, decaying urban areas and decreasing quality of life due to overpopulation, and so on. Thus, irrespective of the potential quantities of the earth's material resources, population is likely to stabilize at some small multiple (pos¬ sibly three times) of the present population of the earth, perhaps based upon the ultimate agrieultural production capacity of the earth. Although world per capita consumption of materials is also likely to level off, world per capita consumption, or at least world per capita con¬ sumption demand, can also be expected to increase several-fold (perhaps two to three times) during the remainder of the 20th century and into the 21st century. In general, total world resource consumption will increase signifi¬ cantly to the year 2000 and beyond. With current knowledge, it is impos¬ sible to know with any degree of confidence .just what the levels of total 8/ How Far Can IVlan Push Nature in Search of Food? Conservation Foundation Fetter, November 1973: 6. Also See U. S. Congress. House. Committee on Foreign Affairs. Subcommittee on National Security Policy and Scientific Developments. Beyond Alalthus: The Food/People Equation. 92d Congress, 1st Session. October 1971. Washington, U. S. Govt. Print. Off., 1971. 96 p. CRS - 18 and per capita materials consumption are likely to be, or to know what total world reserves (known and economicallly recoverable resources) will be at that time. Because of the vast store of potentially recoverable resources, however, it appears that in the year 2000 there would be total reserves sufficient to meet total consumption demand, although per¬ haps, at considerably higher real costs. For the United States, the Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy contains probable cumulative primary mineral demand figures from 1971 to 2000 (as estimated by the U. S. Bureau of Mines in 1973) and estimated reserves at 1971 prices. These statistics are reproduced in Table 3 on the following two pages. Although the table is useful, neither "probable cumulative primary mineral demand 1971-2000, " "reserves at 1971 prices, " "identified resources, " nor "hypothetical re¬ sources" should be considered to be firm data. Demand and resources are estimates, and reserves are likely to continue to increase due to changes in economic factors and technology and because new resources will be identified. A comparison of Table 3 data with Table 2 data (see page 11) pro¬ vides some interesting insights. If it is assumed that U. S. "probable cumulative primary mineral demand in 1971-2000" (Table 3) will account for approximately 25 percent of world demand over that period, it can be seen that for the materials listed in Table 2, such world demand would represent only very small percentages of "recoverable resource potential, " generally less than one percent, with chromium being the highest of those listed at about 2. 5 percent. While data analysis of this type is intriguing, data of materials resources, reserves, and consump¬ tion probably are not adequate at this time for deriving sound conclusions CRS - 19 Table 3 U.S. Reserves and resources of selected mineral commodities Probable cumula¬ tive primary Commodity Units 1 mineral demand 1971 2000 2 Reserves at 1971 2 prices Identified 3 resources Hypothetical 4 resources Aluminum Million S.T. 370 13 Very large KDI Antimony Thousand S.T. 822 110 Small Small Arsenic Thousand S.T. 800 700 — — Asbestos Million S.T. 43 9 Small Insignificant Barium Million S.T. 31 45 Very large Very large Beryllium Thousand S.T. 28 28 Very large Huge Bismuth Million lb. 81 10 — - Boron Million S.T. 5 40 Very large Huge Bromine Billion lb. 12 17 Huge Huge Calcium Billion S.T. 5 Adequate Very large Huge Cadmium Million lb. 560 264 — - Cesium Thousand lb. 350 - - - Chlorine Million S.T. 645 Adequate Huge Huge Chromium Million S.T. 19 — Insignificant Insignificant Clay Billion S.T. 3 Adequate Large Very large Coal Billion S.T. 21 Adequate Huge Huge Cobalt Million lb. 540 56 - — Columbium Million lb. 288 — — - Construction Stone Crushed Billion S.T. 41 Adequate Large KDI Dimension Million S.T. 79 Adequate Large KDI Copper Million S.T. 93 81 Large Large Diatomite Million S.T. 29 40 Huge KDI Feldspar Million L.T. 38 500 Huge Huge Fluorine Million S.T. 39 6 Small Small Gallium Thousand kg. 281 Adequate - — Germanium Thousand lb. 1,600 900 - - Gold Million tr. oz. 293 82 Large KDI Graphite Million S.T. 2 - Very large KDI Gypsum Million S.T. 726 350 Huge Huge Hafnium Short Tons 1,280 Adequate — — Indium Million tr. oz. 19 11 - — Iodine Million lb. 269 225 Very large Huge Iron Billion S.T. 3 2 Very large Huge Kyanite Million S.T. 9 15 Huge Huge Lead Million S.T. 34 17 Large Moderate Limestone & Dolomite — - - Large KDI Lithium Thousand S.T. 183 2,767 Huge Huge Magnesium Million S.T. 52 Adequate Huge Huge Manganese Million S.T. 50 - Large KDI Mercury Thousand flasks 5 1,730 75 Small KDI Mica, sheet Million lb. 62 — Insignificant Very large Mica, scrap and flakes Million S.T. 7 250 Huge Huge Molybdenum Billion lb. 3 6 Huge Huge Natural Gas Trillion cu. ft. 1,098 279 Moderate Large Nickel Billion lb. 14 _ 6 Large KDI Nitrogen Million S.T. 1,018 Adequate Huge Huge Tabic 3 -- Continued CRS - 20 Probable cumula tive primary Commodity Units 1 mineral demand 1971 2000 2 Reserves at 1971 2 prices Identified 3 resources Hypothetical 4 resources Peat Million S.T. 43 Adequate Huge KOI Petroleum Billion hhls. 270 38 Large Large Phosphorus Million S.T. 208 39 Very large Huge Planiriom Million tr. o/. 10 1 Moderate Large Potassium Million S.T. 210 50 Very large Huge Pumice Million S.T. 208 200 - - Rare earths Thousand S.T. 4b2 5,040 Huge KDI Rhenium Thousand lb. 300 400 - - Sodium Million S.T. 1,100 Adequate Huge Huge Sand ft Ciravel Rillinn S.T. 04 Adequate Large KDI Scandium kg. 054 Adequate - - Silver Million tr. ()/. 4,400 1,300 Moderate Large Strontium Thousand S.T. 771 - Huge Huge Sulfur Million L.T. 014 75 Huge Huge Talc Million S.T. 02 100 Very large Huge Thorium Thnusand S.T. 21 2 Very large KDI Titanium Million S.T. 32 33 Very large Very large I ungsten Million III. 1.000 170 Modeiate Moderate Uranium T hnosaml S.T. 1,240 130 Large Large Vanadium T hnusand S. T. 471 110 Very large KDI /me Million S. 1 . 02 30 Very large Very large Zirconium Million S.T . 4 4 Large KDI NOTES AND DEFINITIONS ' S I. - Slmrt Tmis L.T. I nni| Tons Hi. (imimls tr. (i/. Iroy ounces ki|. : kilograms lihls 42 gallons ? As estimated liy U S. Rureau ol Mini’s, 1 fl73. liliintilmil Resources mu dnf iiiimI iis including reserves and mnti’fi.ils (itliirr than reserves which an 1 essentially wall known as to location, extant anil grade anil which may im exploitable in thi! I ii I in ii miller mme lavoiahle ncomiinic conditions or with improvements In torhnolngy. 4 Hypothetical resources are undiscovered, hut geologically predictahle, deposits ol materials similar to identified resources. J 71! 111. Flasks r ’ Less than one unit. RFSOURCE APPRAISAL TERMS Hui|e Very lari)!' I aii|e Moderate Small I nsM|nif ir.ant Kill Domestic resources (ol the category slinwn) are greater than ten times the minimum anticipated cumulative demand (MACD) between the years 1971 and 2000. Domestic resources ate two to ten times the MACD. Domestic resources are approximately 7!i percent to twice the MACD. Domestic resources are approximately 3!i percent to 7!» peicent ol the MACD. Domestic resources are approximately 10 percent to 30 peicent of the MACD. Domestic tesiimces are less than 10 peicent ol the MACD. (Known Data Instillment) Resources not estimated because of insufficient geological knowledge of surface or subsurface area. Dashes indicate data not available. Source: Materials Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy. Wash¬ ington, U. S. Govt.. Print. Off., June 1973: 4R-8 and 4B-9. CRS - 21 about the current and future status of U. S. and world stocks of materials and probable materials demand. Summary The state of the knowledge concerning resources, reserves, and con¬ sumption demand is that estimates of these factors can be made and are useful, but total resources are unknown; reserves have continually in- creased and are likely to continue to do so because of increasing know¬ ledge, economic factors, and new technology; and consumption demand is extremely difficult to predict except to the extent that through the end of the 20th century and probably well into the 21st century at least, both world per capita and total consumption demand for resources is likely to increase several fold. Considering the earth as a total resource system, it appears that most world resources will be adequate even for a many-fold increase in consumption demand. However, increased demand will undoubtedly mean temporary and localized shortages in some commodities until new sources of supply are developed or until abundant materials are developed as sub¬ stitutes for scarce commodities. In addition, resources in general may increase significantly in cost, although historical trends to date indicate rather constant resource costs over a long period. For example. Figure 4 on the following page shows graphically the close relationship between total materials costs and population in the United States from 1900 to 1970. The rapidly increasing gross national product since about 1940 indicates the transformation of the United States from a goods producing and con¬ suming nation to a services-oriented nation. However, the danger in projecting future relationships from past trends is that the underlying realities change. The period covered in Figure 4 was a period of CRS - 22 900 Figure 4. Materials Base of the U. S. Economy i/i DC < O D ID O) Z < f— CO z O a LL O 10 Z o CD z CL z a 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 MATERIALS BASE FOR A POST-INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY 1980 As the United States evolved from a basic agricultural and manufacturing economy in the early decades of this century to a more mature service-oriented economy in recent decades, requirements and supplies of mineral materials kept pace with population growth despite wars and recessive periods. The faster Source: rise of gross national product since 1940 reflects the increase in services and the amenities of life in the United States. Source: "Raw Materials in the United States Economy: 1900-1969," Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Com¬ merce; and Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior. Materials Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., June 1973: 2-5. CRS - 23 generally plentiful and relatively cheap resources in the United States. Recent and impending shortages in materials may significantly increase material costs over the short term. For example, rapidly increasing costs for petroleum may continue for many years until major new re¬ serves of petroleum are found, if there are any, or until substitutes for petroleum (like shale oil and coal liquefaction) are commercially developed. CRS - 24 IV. TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES A brief review of the preceding two sections of this paper indicates that although the world's potentially recoverable resources are estimated to be very large, known economically recoverable reserves of some mate¬ rials are small in relation to existing or anticipated consumption demand. The United States is turning increasingly to foreign, rather than domestic, reserves to meet its domestic requirements for many materials. The Appendix to this paper gives some indication of the United States' cur¬ rent dependence on imported materials. What this situation means for the United States is that increasingly the Nation will have to rely upon technology and national and international policies to provide it with materials at economically acceptable costs. Even so, the costs of some, perhaps many, materials can be expected to increase over time. When costs of commodities become high enough, previously uneconomical known resources will be tapped and substitute materials will be developed. In short, the era of generally cheap and exploitable materials may well be at an end in the United States and the world. The developing two-thirds of the world will increasingly compete for, rather than merely supply, many of the materials that the United States will require. Being the world's richest country, the United States will no doubt be able to afford higher costs for materials and, as in many things, it will be the poorer countries that are likely to suffer dis¬ proportionately from increased materials costs. Technology is looked upon by many persons as being the means for providing adequate supplies of materials to meet the world's increasing CRS - 25 requirements. There is evidence that technology is an exponentially in¬ creasing function in developed and technology-intensive societies. 9 / If this is true, technology can be expected to provide the techniques neces¬ sary to keep up with the world's increasing demand for materials, perhaps through that time when both world population and per capita consumption could be expected to stabilize at some (from now) relatively high level. In the field of energy, the ability of technology to provide rapidly increas¬ ing supplies is already manifest. It is anticipated that nuclear fusion of hydrogen from sea water will be possible in the 21st century, possibly by 2030. If fusion is actually developed as a safe energy source, it will provide an almost unlimited source of energy for the world. It can be anticipated that the application of technology to materials problems will result in similar benefits in the future, but between now and then the world will have to make do with recovering materials with existing technology. To buy time for technology to provide adequate amounts of materials at reasonable costs to meet the expected several-fold increase in world demand for materials, there is likely to be greater pressures on national legislatures and executives to develop workable national and international materials and materials-related policies. For example, to offset or ameliorate possible near-term national shortages in many materials, the Congress will probably be faced with major materials policy considera¬ tions in areas like: 9/ Starr, Chauncey and Richard Rudman. Parameters of Technological — Growth. Science, v. 182, October 2 6, 1973: 358-364. CRS - 26 -International trade; -International assistance in materials development; -Developing buffer stocks of potentially scarce materials; -Incentives for the exploration and development of materials by com¬ mercial interests; -Government-supported materials research and devleopment; -Materials effectiveness, like recycling, reuse, improved engineer¬ ing design, and materials conservation; -Rationing; and -National and international environmental aspects of materials re¬ covery, use, and disposal. All of these policy considerations deal with securing adequate sources for the rapidly increasing U. S. demand for materials. Because the United States has been the greatest, andsometimes profligate, user of the world's resources during the 20th century, there may be increasing international pressures, especially from the developing "third world, " for assistance in developing world resources and for sharing them more equitably than in the past. The factors discussed in this section suggest that human "ingenuity" may be the most important ingredient in developing U. S. and world ma¬ terial resources. In the long-term, technological ingenuity may provide the major solutions to the materials supply problem. Although this is possible, and even probable, the technological solution is not completely certain and is probably a long way off. Until then, national and interna¬ tional policy-makers must use their ingenuity in facing the many intri¬ cate problems associated with making the wisest use of the earth's limited supply of currently known resources. CRS - 27 What is certain is that there will be constraints upon the world supply of materials throughout the remainder of the 20th century. There will probably be periodic materials shortages, and materials costs are likely to rise. New reserves will be found and substitutes will be developed. Hopefully, materials science and technology will be supported to the ex¬ tent required to provide a continual supply of materials for world develop- ment, through (1) the discovery of new reserves or entirely new uses of existing reserves of abundant materials and (2) the conservation and reuse of existing materials. To the extent that scientific and technological in¬ genuity is not used to solve the materials supply problem, it is safe to predict that the political ingenuity of national legislatures and executives will be called upon to develop policies on a wide range of materials-re¬ lated issues for getting the most use out of the world's economically re¬ coverable resources. * CRS - 28 V. MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS There is a wide range of problems related to the rational development of the natural resources of the United States and the world. The problems can be classified as international, economic, technological, political, and so on. This section will deal with problems that can be classified as management problems, that is, problems which involve the application of high-level decisionmaking, in this case specifically decisionmaking at the national political level. The priorities of national decisionmakers concerned with materials policy might include: -Increased knowledge concerning the earth's store of natural resources -Increased knowledge concerning probable per capita consumption trends in the United States and the world; -The development of early warning systems to predict short-term materials shortages; -Increased materials research and development efforts; and -Research into possible alternatives to the Nation's and the world's limited reserves to conserve scarce materials. In short, the most pressing management requirement in the field of materials policy is increased information about the basic parameters of materials supply and demand and additional research on resource discov- very and recovery and materials effectiveness. Only when more is known about materials resources and use, can adequate long-range decisions be made on the national and international levels. In the meantime, manage¬ ment problems will probably include the resolution of short-term crises J CRS - 29 like materials shortages and imbalances in international trade. To offset recurring shortages and imbalances in materials production and supply, a system of national and international buffer stocks could be developed for those materials which are, or are expected to be, in short supply, or which are imported from politically uncertain supply sources. Buffer stocks could provide a cushion against physical shortages of materials, against price fluctuations, and against supply disruptions caused by in¬ ternational political situations. Through technology and intelligent management of the earth's re¬ sources, the earth may ultimately provide sufficient materials for a high quality of life for most of its inhabitants. However, political decision¬ makers cannot assume without some risk that this is the case. Perhaps a preferable working hypothesis would be that materials usage will out¬ pace materials production if intelligent national and international mate¬ rials management is not vigorously pursued. It appears that the most important aspects of improved materials management are (1) a significant increase in knowledge about the earth's store of potentially and econo¬ mically recoverable resources, (Z) increased support for materials science and technology, and (3) the development of policies aimed at con¬ serving, and perhaps developing buffer stocks of, materials which are scarce, potentially scarce, or which are imported from politically un¬ certain supply sources. % APPENDIX CRS - 30 UNITED STATES DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED MATERIALS Present Cost of Imports Percent * ## Commodity (Sbillion) Dependence Major Import Sources I. Materials Arranged According to the Present Cost of Imports (Column 2 ) Petroleum, 7.5 29-32 Canada 42# including Venezuela 17 natural gas Indonesia 7 liquids Nigeria 7 • Saudi Arabia 6 Others 21 0 100# Iron and 3.4 20 Europe 45# steel Japan 40 Canada 9 Others 6 100# Iron ore 28 Canada 50# 3.9 Venezuela 31 Liberia 6 Others -12 100# Aluminum .3 10 Canada 76# metal Others _2£ 100# Bauxite 90-96 Jamaica 54# .7 Surinam 23 Guyana 7 Others 16 100# Gold .7 61-80 Canada 51# Switzerland 24 Burma 9 United Kingdom 3 Others -12 100# Nickel .5 74-90 Canada 82# Norway 8 Others 10 100# Published figures for "percent dependence" vary according to whether U.S. imports are measured against U.S. primary (new) production of materials or against primary production plus scrap, and perhaps for other reasons. Consequently, the figures of Column 3 are sometimes given as a range, like "29-32" percent dependence for petroleum. Based on 1°6 0 -1°72 average data. CRS - 31 Continued Present Cost of Imports Percent Commodity (^billion) DeDendence Maior Inoort Sources 6. Zinc .5 52-68 Canada 68$ % Mexico 24 Peru 8 100$ 7. Copper .4 15-18 Canada 31$ % Peru 27 * Chile 22 Rep. South Africa 6 Others -U * 100$ 8. Natural .4 4-9 Canada 97$ gas Mexico 100$ 9. Silver .3 44-70 Canada 58$ Peru 20 Mexico 8 Others _1 k 100$ 10. Tin .3 77-100 Malaysia 64$ Thailand 27 Others _2 100$ 11. Chromium .1 100 U.S.S.R. 32$ Rep. South Africa 30 Turkey 18 Phillipines 14 Others 6 100$ 12. Cobalt .1 98-100 Zaire 45$ Belgium & Lux. 29 Norway 8 Canada 6 Others 12 100$ 13. Fluorine .1 77-87 Mexico 77$ - Spain 12 Italy 6 Others 100$ CRS - 32 Continued Commodity Present Cost of Imports (^billion) Percent Dependence Malor Inoort Sources 14. Lead .1 26-36 Canada 29$ Peru 21 Australia 21 — Mexico 12 Others .12 100$ 15. Manganese .1 95-98 Gabon 35$ Brazil 33 Rep. South Africa 7 Zaire 7 Others 18 100$ 16. Platinum .1 99-100 United Kingdom 39% U.S.S.R. 32 Rep. South Africa 12 Others 17 100 $ II. Materials Whose Present Costs of Imports Are Less Than $0.1 Billion. Arranged According to Percent Dependence (Column 3) 17. Cesium Less Than 100 Pollucite: $0.1 Billion Canada & Africa Most Cesium Compounds: West Germany 87$ Netherlands 8 Others _2 100$ 18. Columbium ditto 67-100 Brazil 62$ Canada 16 Nigeria 14 Others 8 100$ 19. Hafnium ditto 100 France 65$ Japan 8 Others -2Z - 100$ 20. Indium ditto 100 Canada 44$ U.S.S.R. 14 Others -42 100$ CRS - 33 Continued Commodity Present Cost of Imports (^billion) Percent Dependence Maior Import Sources 21. Rhodium Less Than 100 United Kingdom 59$ $0.1 Billion U.S.S.R. 15 Others 26 100$ 22. Rubidium ditto 100 Negligible imports 23. Scandium • ditto 100 Australia 55$ Canada 40 Others __5 100$ 24. Strontium ditto 100 Mexico 81$ United Kingdom 12 Spain 7 100$ 25. Tantalum ditto 97-100 Canada 30$ Brazil 22 Zaire 14 Others -2L 100$ 26 . Titanium ditto 86-100 Australia 92$ (Rutile) Sierra Leone 8 100$ 27. Zirconium ditto 100 Australia 96$ metal Others 100$ 28. Corundum ditto 100 Kenya 100$ 29. Mica sheet ditto 100 India 79$ Brazil 14 Malagasy Rep. 3 Others 100$ 30. Palladium ditto 98 U.S.S.R. 51$ United Kingdom 32 Rep. South Africa 6 Others 11 100 $ CRS - 34 Continued Present Cost of Commodity Imports (Sbillion) Percent Dependence Ma.ior Import Sourc; 3S 31. Graphite Less Than 97 Mexico 76$ $0.1 Billion Malagasy Rep. 9 Norway 6 Sri Lanka 5 Others 100$ 32. Antimony « ditto 65-95 Ore: Rep. South Africa 51$ Mexico 20 Others _22 100$ Metal: Mexico 18$ Peoples Rep. China 16 Others 66 100$ 33. Arsenic ditto 90 Sweden 43$ Mexico 40 France 15 Others 2 100$ 34. Iodine ditto 86 Japan 72$ Chile 28 100$ 35. Asbestos ditto 84-85 Canada 96$ Rep. South .Africa 3 Others 1 100$ 36. Mercury ditto 58-83 Canada 59$ Mexico 17 Spain 8 Italy 5 Others 11 100$ 37. Ittrium ditto 73 Australia 53$ - Malaysia 44 Others 100 $ CRS - 35 Continued Present Cost of Commodity Imports (©billion) Percent Dependence Maior import Sourc es • CO Gallium Less Than 64 Switzerland 72$ $0.1 Billion United Kingdom 4 West Germany 4 Others 20 100$ 39. Bismuth ditto 62-75 Peru 31% - Mexico 29 Japan 11 Canada 9 Others 17 100$ 40. Cadmium ditto 25-62 Japan 23$ Canada 22 Australia 15 Peru 12 Others 28 ICO % 41. Thorium ditto 6C Australia 53$ Malaysia 44 Others 1002 42. Beryllium ditto 53 Brazil 64$ ore Rep. South Africa 13 Argentina 7 Others 16 100$ 43. Potassium ditto 45-60 Canada 94$ Israel 2 Others —L 100$ Source: Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines information as of February 1, 1974; andMaterials Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., June 1973: 2-25. SP 323