LIBRARY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN 5\0.8^ I£63c ™>. \ I -2.0 ENGlNLEBmS AUG 51976 The person charging this material is re- sponsible for its return to the library from which it was withdrawn on or before the Latest Date stamped below. Theft, mutilation, and underlining of books are reasons for disciplinary action and may result in dismissal from the University. UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS LIBRARY AT URBA*IM£HAMPAIGN ffl 1111.8.111 ME* m 1 6 \W ■■ ■ - L161 — O-1096 'UTQTIOn IIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN URBANA, ILLINOIS 61801 CAC Document No. 13 ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 3 Long-Range University Planning in the Face of Variable Demands for Educated Manpower By: Roger H. Bezdek Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://archive.org/details/longrangeuniversOObezd CAC Document No. 13 ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 3 LONG-RANGE UNIVERSITY PLANNING IN THE FACE OF VARIABLE DEMANDS FOR EDUCATED MANPOWER Roger H. Bezdek Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urb ana -Champaign September 1, 1971 This work was supported in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by the U.S. Army Research Office-Durham under Contract No. DAHC0U-72-C-0001. tU&muJwn« Abstract This paper develops an empirical methodology whereby the detailed occupational manpower requirements likely to be generated "by alternate economic futures may be related to demands for college-educated manpower on a regional or statewide basis. Several different concepts for the supply of and demand for educated manpower are discussed and it is emphasized that the effective demand (demand backed up by an allocation of resources) is the most important variable which must be considered in educational planning. National manpower demands are generated under several different assumptions for 1975 and 1980 and these alternate occupational requirements are translated into demands for degree recipients from the Illinois system of higher education in the coming decade. The forecast demands are compared with the projected supply of degree recipients from Illinois in 1975 and 1980 and the resulting supply and demand imbalances are then estimated for each academic discipline. Large surpluses are forecast for most degree areas under all assumptions and the implications of this for the state's long-range plans for higher education are discussed. Introduction In long-range university planning, consideration of future demands for college educated manpower is important for two reasons. First of all, a generally tight budget situation will make it increasingly necessary for educators planning to institute or expand graduate or undergraduate programs to convince trustees and legislators that there is a need for additional professional and skilled personnel in particular program areas. Secondly, educational institutions making long-range plans must accept the responsi- bility for assessing the social and vocational opportunities their graduates will face. The seemingly "boundless optimism of the 1960's with regard to job requirements and opportunities for those who completed undergraduate and graduate programs has been recently called into question. But, as yet, very few rational guidelines have appeared to replace this philosophy of unlimited educational expansionism. This paper is written, then: l) to emphasize the necessity for considering future requirements for professional and technical manpower in long-range university planning, 2) to suggest a methodology for relating variable manpower demands, corresponding to alternate economic and social futures, to demands for college graduates on a regional or statewide level, and 3) to illustrate the empirical application of this technique by analyzing the supply of and demand for college degree recipients from the State of Illinois in the coming decade . I. SOME QUESTIONS RELATING TO THE SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR EDUCATED MANPOWER The supply of college- educated manpower may be conceptualized much more easily than the demand. Minimum informational requirements for any type of higher educational planning include projections of numbers and types of degree recipients anticipated within the forecast period. These estimates will be based on present enrollments by discipline and degree program, historical and contemporary trends in college enrollment and student choice, and, most importantly, the availability of financial resources within the planning period. Anticipated supply, then, is only tentative; nevertheless, these projections must be regarded as an important starting point in the planning process . For Illinois, the two forecast target years chosen for analysis here are 1975 and 1980. The projected supply of academic manpower is, then, the projected number of baccalaureate, master's, doctorate, or professional degree recipients in these years from all public and private institutions of higher learning in Illinois. To a large degree this represents those persons completing a major phase of their education who will either be entering the job market or preparing to further their education. The concept of demand is much more nebulous than that of supply. Accurate determination of the number of degree recipients whose skills will be required in various fields in a given target year is extremely difficult, but several possible approaches exist . In a recent study prepared for the Russell Sage Foundation's Commission on Human Resources and Higher Education, John Folger, Helen Astin, and Alan Bayer distinguish between the demand for college- educated manpower and the need for such persons : The concept of demand has proved even more troublesome than the concept of supply. Too often, projections have tended to confuse demand (the number of jobs that can be financed with current or future funds) with the need (the number of persons in a field who will be required to produce a given level or amount of service judged to be desirable). The distinction is between social ideals (what people feel ought to be done) and economic realities (what people are able to pay for). 1 But, having made a perfectly valid distinction, the authors go on to base far too much of their argument on society's need for college-educated 2 manpower. In one important sense, social need for particular areas of educated manpower can be valuable in the planning process. To the degree that social standards, priorities, and objectives indicate a future willingness to invest necessary resources in a particular area, these standards can be useful in the educational planning process. But such an approach must be taken cautiously. To begin with, any definition of society's need is inherently subjective and, therefore variable- -dependent upon the person or group setting the social standards . If one chooses ambit'ous enough social standards, society's need for educated manpower can always be forecast as outstripping the projected supply in almost any discipline. More seriously, even if some set of widely accepted social standards were agreed upon, this would still be a questionable concept upon which to base educational planning. In distinguishing between society's need for technical and professional manpower and the demand for such persons, Folger, As tin, and Bayer have confused demand—the desire or wish for something- -with effect! ve demand - - demand backed up by the allocation of resources. The crucial factor which must be considered is the likely level of effective Folger, Astin, and Bayer [6], p. 29 2 Ibid , pp. 29-3^- demand in the specified target year. Society's anticipated need for college- educated manpower must "be considered in the planning process only to the degree that this need may be supported financially in the future. It is in this sense that the concept of demand must be interpreted and this is the sense in which it is used here. II. STATEWIDE SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR COLLEGE-EDUCATED MANPOWER A. Projected Supply- Estimates of the projected supplies of degree recipients, categorized by discipline and degree level as well as by institution and the state as a whole, are available for Illinois from the U.S. Office of Education. The projected total supply of degree recipients in the coming decade from all public and private institutions of higher education in Illinois is used in this study as the basic supply data. Trends developed in the last decade for degree production in 23 academic areas are summarized in Table 1 along with indications of the anticipated supply of degree candidates within each of these academic areas in 1975 and 1980. 3 These estimates, the most recent available, are based on assumed levels and distributions of expenditures for higher education in Illinois in the coming decade and on assumed availability of students. They are valid only to the degree that these assumptions are correct. In any case, they represent reasonable indications of the plans for expansion by the Illinois system of higher education in the coming decade, and they can serve as the basis for a critical analysis. B. Projected Demand Having obtained initial supply projections, it is necessary to determine how forecasts of the demand for college- educated manpower within different fields may be derived. For disciplines from which a large 3 This information is also available In greater detail classified by type of degree and degree granting institution; see [l6] . k The methods by which these supply projections were developed are discussed in greater detail in Bezdek, Folk, Graziano, and Russell [3] . Table 1 Illinois Degree Production: Selected Years and Projected 1975 and I980 Fields of Study i960 (actual) 1965 (actual) 1969 (actual] 1975 1 (predicted) 1980 (predicted) 1. Agricultural Science 376 5 1+1+ 985 89I+ 876 2. Fine Arts 2,092 2,631+ 4,287 5,281 5,859 3. Biological Science 1,008 1,539 2,239 3,888 l+,l+39 k. Health Professions 1,1+68 1,1*60 1,952 2,736 2,931+ 5- Veterinary Medicine i+8 65 78 90 97 6. Mathematical Science 788 1,1+67 2,086 3,961+ l+,582 7- Engineering 2,06*+ 2,216 2,881+ 1+A32 l+,6l0 8. Physical Science 718 777 l,3l+9 1,615 1,829 9- Physics 351 U27 521 780 875 10. Education if, 588 7,111 10,557 13,219 li+,l+38 11. Physical Education 751 996 1,502 1,803 1,985 12. Humanities 2,359 3,8o6 5,193 7,597 8,609 13. Commerce 2,727 3,631+ 6,1+oU 6,892 7,561+ Ik. Home Economics 3^5 351+ 758 761 825 15. Library Science 183 230 387 688 771 16. Social Work 162 309 1+6^ 51+7 625 17. Economics 393 56U 890 1,191 1,365 18. Communications 159 250 I4I+2 668 761 J 19. Languages 388 918 1,1+58 2,605 2,997 20. Social Science 2,121 3,961 7,166 9,91+7 11,379 21. Labor & Industrial Relations 62 57 59 136 155 22. Psychology 563 1,097 2,365 3,077 3,583 23. Law 553 755 819 l,17i+ 1,212 Total 2^,267 35,171 5l+,8l+5 73,685 82,281] Source: Projections of State of Illinois and National Degrees and Enrollments by Broad Areas of Study and Educational Degree [16]. 7 portion of advanced degree recipients enter college teaching, demands for degrees can be forecast by relating requirements to the projected numbers 5 of open academic positions. But in most fields the majority of degree recipients traditionally find employment outside of academia; therefore, to determine the demand for college-educated manpower, the level of both academic and nonacademic requirements must be taken into account. The demand for degree recipients in various fields is, in reality, a demand for manpower in occupations related to those fields. Estimates of the future requirements for professional and technical manpower must be derived and then related to requirements for academic degrees. In this study, 23 academic disciplines were considered. The specific occupations to which these relate are given in Table 2. The problem faced here, then, was twofold: to determine the overall employment demands likely to exist in 1975 and 1980 for the occupations listed in Table 2 and to translate these occupational manpower requirements into demands for academic degrees from colleges and universities in Illinois. Manpower forecasting is presently inexact. Recent work by this author has indicated that the requirements for many occupations vary with specified changes in the economic assumptions underlying employment forecasts . Specifically, it was found that occupational manpower requirements may be significantly influenced by shifting national goals and priorities as reflected in expenditures on different public and private 6 economic programs and activities. Therefore, to estimate the demands for degree recipients from Illinois in 1975 and 1930, it is necessary This is essentially the method which Alan Cartter used in [h] to forecast a rather pessimistic outlook for the employment opportunities for doctorate recipients in most fields throughout the 1970' s. See Bezdek [l] and Bezdek and Scoville [2] . Table 2 Academic Disciplines Considered and Related Occupations Fields of Study 1. Agricultural Science 2. Fine Arts 3- Biological Science h. Health Professions 5- Veterinary Medicine 6. Mathematical Science 7- Engineering 8. Physical Science Related Occupations Agricultural Scientists High School Teachers, Agriculture College Teachers, Agriculture and Related Fields Work in Arts, Entertainment Designers, Exc. Design Draft Architects College Teachers, Fine Arts Biological Scientists High School Teachers, Biology College Teachers, Biological Scien Dentists Nurses, Professional Optometrists Osteopaths Pharmacists Physicians and Surgeons Technicians, Medical, Dental College Teachers, Health Profess ioi Other Medical, Health Workers Veterinarians College Teachers, Veterinary Medic: Mathematicians Statisticians and Actuaries High School Teachers, Math College Teachers, Math Engineers, Chemical Engineers, Civil Engineers, Electrical Engineers, Industrial Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Metallurgical Engineers, Mining Engineers, Aeronautical College Teachers, Engineering Other Engineers, Technical Chemists Geologists, Geophysicists High School Teachers, Physical Sci College Teachers, Physical Science Other Natural Scientists Table 2 Page Two Fields of Study Physics .0. Education .1. Physical Education 2. Humanities .3. Commerce .k. Home Economics .5- Library Science 6. Social Work 7. Economics 8. Communication 9. Languages Related Occupations High School Teachers, Physics College Teachers, Physics Physicists Teachers, Elementary Teachers, High School, Ind. Arts, Special Education Teachers, College, Education Teachers, Others High School Teachers, P.E. College Teachers, P.E. High School Teachers, English College Teachers, Philosophy, English, Religion, Theology and History Accountants and Auditors Creditmen Purchasing Agents Managers, Office, Prop., NEC. High School Teachers, Business College Teachers, Business High School Teachers, Home Ec. College Teachers, Home Ec. Dietitians, Nutritionists Librarians College Teachers, Library Science Social Workers College Teachers, Social Work Economists College Teachers, Economics Editors and Reporters College Teachers, Communication High School Teachers, Foreign Languages College Teachers, Foreign Languages and Literature 10 Table 2 Page Three Fields of Study 3- 20. Social Science 21. Labor and Industrial Relations 22 . Psychology 23. Law Related Occupations High School Teachers, Social Studies College Teachers, Social Studies Other Social Scientists Personnel and Labor Relations Workers College Teachers, Labor and Industrie Relations Psychologists College Teachers, Psychology Lawyers and Judges College Teachers, Law Areas of academic study considered for analysis Occupational employment categories generating demand for degree recipients, Source: University of Illinois Office of School and College Relations 11 to estimate on the "basis of several possible economic and social futures the projected national manpower demands likely to exist in those years. The methodology used to determine the sensitivity of occupational manpower demands to shifting national priorities and expenditure programs involved the use of a large-scale economic input-output model capable of consistently generating detailed employment requirements corresponding to 7 different specified sets of economic assumptions. j n this model changing national priorities enter the system as changes in the expenditures allocated to different types of public and private economic activities. Due to the unique requirements which different economic activities have for the outputs of various industries, these shifts in the distribution of expenditures generate alternate direct and indirect industrial output requirements. The changes in output requirements from all industries generate shifts in industrial employment and these, in turn, generate changes in occupational manpower demands through the occupational distribution of employment within different industries. While some important questions still remain concerning this type of large-scale interindustry manpower modeling, at the present time this does appear to be the most rational and efficient method for obtaining the kind of alternate occupational- employment requirements data desired here. Separate sets of manpower demand estimates were not generated independently for use in this study. Rather, a two-step procedure was employed whereby occupational manpower requirements for the years in question generated on the basis of alternate economic futures were first obtained and then modified and checked against results derived from computerized sensitivity analyses conducted with the general model. These 7 The workings of this manpower demand generating model are detailed in Bezdek [l] and Bezdek and Scoville [2]. 12 employment estimates were then fit to the necessary detailed occupational subcategories listed on the right-hand side of Table 2. Four alternate estimates of the level and distribution of national employment requirements within the 23 degree-occupation categories were derived for 1975 and one set of estimates was obtained for 1980. These employment estimates are given in Table 3* The first set of occupational employment requirements for 1975 was derived from employment data originally estimated by the Bureau of Q Labor Statistics. The assumptions under which this first set of estimates was developed were those judged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be the ones most likely to persist within the forecast period and this set of manpower requirements has accordingly been labeled the "1975 Status Quo" alternative. These employment estimates were developed under the following broad assumptions concerning the economic environment in the mid-1970's: no major event would substantially alter the rate and nature of economic growth in the near future, scientific and technological advances of recent years would continue at about the same rate, economic and social relationships and patterns would continue to change at the same rate as in the recent past, and defense expenditures (in constant dollar terms) between 19^5 and 1975 would increase at about the same rate as during the 9 1955-1965 period. Thus while these estimates are constantly being revised, the occupational employment requirements given in the first column of Table 3 represent those which would exist in 1975 if recent trends continue and if the status quo is maintained in the near future . The second set of occupational manpower requirements was calculated from data derived from the assumption that a large-scale policy of dis- armament would be in effect in the United States in the mid-1970' s ~F> See U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics [12] 9 Ibid., p. k. 13 Table 3 Alternate National Manpower Demands: 1975 and 1970 Fields of Study 1975 1980 Status Quo Disarmament 3 High Cold War° National Goals g Status Quo 1. Agricultural Science 62 59 66 70 70 2. Fine Arts 963 975 951 1,009 1,014 3- Biological Science 224 219 230 245 251 k. Health Professions 2 ,189 2,443 2,136 2,681 2,762 5- Veterinary Medicine 28 29 26 34 33 6. Mathematical Science 264 242 286 288 312 7- Engineering 1 ,472 1,263 1,655 1,921 1,519 8. Physical Science 309 302 313 350 344 9- Physics 84 76 89 91 99 10. Education 1 ,748 1,818 1,719 2,000 1,956 11. Physical Education 107 109 106 112 118 12. Humanities 287 289 285 327 312 13- Commerce 9 ,660 9,421 9,698 10,889 11, 187 14. Home Economics ill 116 110 119 121 15. Library Science 131 148 125 161 159 16. Social Work 220 267 200 279 296 17- Economics 38 37 4o 44 41 18. Communications 129 128 130 137 138 19- Languages 100 99 100 118 111 20. Social Science 216 219 209 226 230 21. Labor and Industrial Relations 192 190 197 217. 210 22. Psychology 57 58 57 61 61 23. Law Total 324 336 320 371 339 18 ,916 18,857 18,644 21,947 21,683 Ik Table 3 Page 2 Manpower requirements generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "most Likely" set of economic assumptions for 1975* Manpower requirements generated by a transfer of arms expenditures to domestic welfare programs . Manpower requirements generated by increases in government defense and defense related expenditures . Manpower requirements generated by ambitious simultaneous pursuit of national goals and priorities. Manpower requirements generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "most likely" set of economic assumptions for I9S0. 15 and that the funds freed by the arms redaction would "be allocated to domestic welfare programs. The manpower requirements estimated for this "Disarmament" alternative were derived from research conducted into the employment effects of defense expenditures and disarmament policies by a number of individuals. Thus the occupational employment demands listed for the "Disarmament" alternative in Table 3 are those likely to result by 1975 from a transfer of defense- oriented expenditures to educational programs, social welfare payments, health programs, anti- poverty programs, and so forth. The third set of employment estimates for 1975 was developed on the assumption of increased cold war tensions in the near future and a consequent large increase in defense expenditures . The data for the "High Cold War" alternative, listed in column three of Table 3, were derived from findings reported previously by this author and others. Here, social welfare, public service, and anti-poverty programs receive less emphasis than in the previous case, while military expenditures are set at much higher levels. The fourth set of manpower demands for 1975 was calculated largely from more aggregative employment estimates derived by Leonard Lecht of 12 the National Planning Association. Lecht assumed an ambitious effort on the part of this nation to achieve all of its stated national goals and objectives within the coming decade, and for this "National Goals" alternative expenditures on virtually all types of programs and activities See Bezdek [l], Bezdek and Scoville [2], and Frumkin [8]. Ibid. 12 Lecht [10]. 16 were increased substantially. Accordingly, the employment requirements listed in the fourth column of Table 3 are those likely to be generated by an ambitious concentration by the United States on all of its national priorities . Finally, a set of occupational manpower requirements for 1980 was developed from additional work recently completed by the Bureau of 13 Labor Statistics . The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed their 1980 employment estimates in a manner similar to that used to generate 1975 employment, only the basic relationships involved pertain to 1980. Once again, the most plausible assumptions were used and the estimates in column five of Table 3 are labeled the "198O Status Quo" forecasts . In translating national manpower projections into requirements for educated manpower from Illinois, it was recognized that the job market which Illinois degree recipients enter is essentially national in character, in that Illinois degree recipients are not restricted to employment opportunities within the state, and that in many fields educated manpower from Illinois represents a significant portion of the national total. Variations in the demand for degree recipients at the national level were assumed to be reflected in commensurate changes in demands for degree recipients from Illinois. This assumption made it possible to relate fluctuations in the demand for technical and professional manpower at the national level to changes in requirements for degree recipients from Illinois colleges and universities. In disaggregating national degree requirements to the statewide level, two interdependent factors were taken into account. First of all, it was assumed that the Illinois labor force would maintain throughout the 1970' s approximately the same general relation to the national labor force 1 3see U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics [13 ] and [lU] 17 that it has had in the recent past. Then taking into account the trends in recent years of the degree-to-worker ratios for all levels of degrees and for all fields of employment, these trends were projected to the target years 1975 and 1980. This permitted the determination on a gross "basis of the general levels of demand for degree recipients "by field and type of degree from Illinois generated "by each economic model in the years in question. However, it was also necessary to consider increments in Illinois degree production as they related to annual changes in the national labor force. To do this, demand functions of the general type X..(t) were defined, where X. . (t) represents the ratio of j-level degree recipients from Illinois in field i in year t to the change in national manpower in field I in year t. The various X. . (t)'s were plotted over the past two decades to obtain historical trends relating to the incremental demands for degree recipients from Illinois in the various fields and degree levels. Extrapolation of these demand functions to the target years provided additional information relating to the potential increases in demand for Illinois graduates under different assumed economic conditions. These methods clearly revealed the national character of the demand for Illinois graduates and the manner in which this demand is influenced by both the gross level of employment and the incremental changes in employment requirements within specific fields . Together they permitted the estimation of the approximate levels of requirements likely to exist for Illinois graduates in 1975 and 1980 under the pursuit of alternate types of economic and social priorities. 18 III. RESULTS: POTENTIAL IMBALANCES IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND Having derived alternate estimates of the demand for degrees from Illinois colleges and universities in 1975 and 1980, it was possible to compare these with the supply projections of Illinois degree recipients to determine if the supply of and demand for college-educated manpower from Illinois were likely to be, in equilibrium in the coming decade. The estimated demand for Illinois degrees under each of the alternate economic assumptions for 1975 and 1980 was subtracted from the projected supply in these years and the difference was then expressed as a percent of the projected supply. This yielded an indication of the percent excess supply likely to exist under each assumption. Absolute and percent excess supplies were computed for each discipline and degree level corresponding to each economic assumption for 1975 and 1980. The results have been summarized in Table h which shows the percent excess supply of total degrees in each of 23 academic disciplines under four economic assumptions 14 for 1975 and under the "Status Quo" assumption for 198O. In this table, a positive excess supply indicates a forecast surplus of Illinois degree recipeints; a negative excess supply indicates that demand will likely exceed supply. Table 4 presents some interesting and potentially very significant results, especially the widespread prevalence of positive excess supplies throughout. Under the "Status Quo" alternative, the most likely set of assumptions, the findings indicate that the Illinois system of higher education may in the near future be producing an oversupply of degree recipients at most levels for virtually all disciplines. This is also the case under the "Disarmament" and "High Cold War" alternatives, although 14 Preliminary versions of these results classified by type of degree were reported in Bezdek, Folk, Graziano, and Russell [3]. Table k 19 Alternate Projected Percent Excess Supplies of Degree Recipients: 1975 and 1980 c Fields of Study 1975 1980 Status Quo Disarmament High Cold War National Goals Status Quo 1. Agricultural Science -8.5 -3.3 -15-5 -22 . 5 -20.7 2. Fine Arts 20.0 19.0 20.8 16.2 20.6 3- Biological Science lU.l 16.3 11.8 6.0 11.0 k. Health Professions 6.6 -k.2 8.9 -Ik.k k.O 5- Veterinary Medicine 7.8 -k.k 13-3 -12.0 1.8 6. Mathematical Science 21.9 28.1+ 15. k 1U.8 26.8 7- Engineering 18.6 30.3 8.5 6.7 2U.5 8. Physical Science 15.2 17.1 1U.1 k.O 13.2 9- Physics 12.3 20.8 7-1 5-2 5-k 10. Education 20.9 16.0 21.1 9-0 19.O 11. Physical Education 16.0 ik.k 16.8 12.1 12.0 12. Humanities 27.8 27-3 28.3 17-7 28.2 13- Commerce 19.7 21.8 19.9 9-5 15.6 Ik. Home Economics 1)4.7 10.8 15-5 8.5 7-7 15- Library Science 2h. r j lk.9 28.1 l.k 30.0 16. Social Work 11.7 -7.2 19.8 -12.0 9.6 17- Economics 25.7 28. 1+ 21.6 13.6 22.7 18. Communications 3^-1 3^.6 33.5 25.2 38.0 19- Languages 3^-2 3^.8 3^-2 22.5 36.1 20. Social Science 21.2 20.1 23.^ 17.2 25.O 21. Labor and Industrial Relations 26. k 26.1 2k.k 19.2 21.6 22. Psychology 27.1 25.0 27.1 21.9 17.7 23- Law 7-8 k.3 8-7 -5.7 8.7 Total 23.1 23.0 22.6 11.1 19.2 Surplus of degree recipients within each discipline which would each hypothesized economic alternative. Surpluses expressed as supply within appropriate discipline in the target year. result in 1975 and 1980 under percent of total projected 20 here some variations exist in the size and distribution of degree surpluses. The "High Cold War" alternative is especially interesting, for it indicates that even in the event of a high level of defense spending in the near future, "by 1975 Illinois may still be producing an oversupply of degree recipients in such defense-related disciplines as physics, engineering, and mathematics. Examination of the "1975 National Goals" alternative is also instructive. It indicates that even if the nation were .to embark upon an extremely ambitious effort to achieve all of its national priorities within the coming decade, by 1975 the State of Illinois may still be producing more degree recipients than required in most fields. This result is most ominous, for the assumptions under which the "National Goals" alternative was initially formulated are totally infeasible, requiring an impossibly large increase in both the gross national 15 product and the total size of the national labor force. Finally, the situation forecast for 1980 is hardly more reassuring, for it appears that by 1980 the oversupply of graduates in many fields may even worsen. In general, for 1975 the oversupply of degree recipients from Illinois may at best amount to eleven percent of the total supply; at worst the excess supply may exceed twenty- three percent. For 1980 the oversupply of Illinois degree recipients is forecast as amounting to about one- fifth of the total supply. While the detailed results classified by degree level are not included here, it is worth noting that substantial variation in the excess supply situation occurred for all levels of most disciplines. For instance, although slight excess supplies of degree recipients are fore- cast here for the health professions under several alternatives, the 15 See chapters 1 and 3 of Lecht [10] . 21 demand for persons possessing professional health degrees greatly exceeded the supply tinder all alternatives for "both 1975 and 198O. Similarly, the projected oversupply of advanced degrees, and especially doctorates, in many cases substantially exceeded the average for the discipline. For 1980 this latter result did not improve; the total excess supply of persons receiving doctorates in that year is predicted to reach twenty- six percent, and in some disciplines the oversupply of doctorates may exceed fifty percent. 22 IV. INTERPRETATION AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The purpose of this paper has been to stress the importance of manpower forecasting in the formulation of long-range university expansion plans and to illustrate a methodology whereby the employment requirements generated by alternate economic and social futures could be used as a general guide to educational planning on a regional or statewide basis. Before attempting to generalize on the findings and the • methodology presented here, it is important to emphasize the qualifications to which this analysis is subject. To begin with, the methodology employed to relate national manpower demands to requirements for areas and levels of degrees is, admittedly, somewhat imperfect. For this methodology not only converted an essentially definitional relationship between national employment and Illinois degree outputs into an analytic one but it also assumed that this relationship was structurally invariant over the limited range of employment variation considered. Further, the alternate projections of national occupational employment requirements derived here are of varying and indeterminate degrees of accuracy. Although these employment estimates were revised to take into account the most recent data available, in several cases the basic employment estimates are several years old. And in fitting the generated manpower demands to the necessary occupation- degree categories, some distortion was probably introduced into the analysis, Finally, the supply projections used were merely estimates, portions of which are already out of date. These projections fail to take into account adjustments which have very recently been set in motion, they do not recognize trends towards inter- disciplinary programs or reorienta- tions of existing degree programs and, of course, they cannot take into 23 account any trends which may set in later in the decade. They simply represent best-guess estimates of the structure and level of degree outputs likely to he forthcoming from Illinois in the near future. Nevertheless, keeping the above qualifications in mind, some interesting and potentially significant implications do emerge from the analysis and findings reported here. First of all, it seems clear that future changes in the economic environment can exert substantial effects upon the potential requirements for technical and professional manpower and these, in turn, can signifi- cantly influence the level and structure of demand for college- educated persons. Here the economic changes hypothesized pertained to shifts in the distribution of national expenditures among competing resource uses reflecting alternate national goals and priorities . These alternate economic futures were seen to have considerable impacts on the demand for educated manpower both nationally and from the State of Illinois. Other alternate types of changes may also be introduced into the analysis : alternate patterns of shifting technological and productivity relationships will have important effects on future manpower requirements as will specified patterns of displacement in the occupational composition of employment. The results presented here should at the very least raise some serious questions concerning the theory that the generally tight job market presently confronting college graduates and advanced degree recipients is merely a transitional phenomenon. At present, the degree to which the findings reported here can be generalized is not entirely clear. Nevertheless, the optimistic predictions of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the contrary, this evidence does add weight to the hypothesis that the market for highly educated and specialized manpower can be 2k 16 saturated- -even in the United States. While overall surpluses of college-educated manpower may "be in the offing for Illinois and other states, it is important to recognize that these surpluses will, to a degree, he structural in nature. While a surplus is forecast for most degree levels and disciplines, for certain academic areas and types of degrees the demand may continue to exceed the supply. For university administrators grappling with tight budgets, one implication of this may not be too pleasant, for in some cases an optimal planning policy may require a redistribution of available university funds in favor of certain disciplines at the expense of others. In general, reliable methods must be devised both to more accurately predict the future effective demand for college trained manpower and to relate these national demands to requirements from Individual regions, states, and educational institutions. The methodology illustrated here represents one possible approach to this problem and the results derivable even at this preliminary stage of the analysis can be useful. The data required are not excessive and are probably available for most regions and states. More specifically, in relation to the State of Illinois, I would be extremely hesitant to recommend any type of policy change or reorientation on the basis of findings reported here. But I would recommend that a much more substantial in-depth study of the factors influencing the supply of and demand for educated manpower in Illinois in the coming decade be undertaken. At the very least, in view of the massive surplus of degree recipients forecast here, the state must take a critical look at its plans for educational expansion in the 1970' s, as summarized in The continuing optimism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is evident in the latest edition of the Occupational Outlook for College Graduates [15] > and this bulletin lists very few occupations for which the employment opportuni- ties throughout the 1970' s are not given as being "excellent" or "very good." 25 17 Table 1. ' In conclusion, it is always dangerous to visualize higher education merely as another industry "producing" educated persons in the same manner that another industry might produce automobiles, televisions, or ball bearings. Certainly there are many other goals and criteria which should guide rational long-range educational planning, and it is not clear exactly how important a variable manpower forecasts should be in the planning process. However, analysis of society's requirements for educated manpower must be considered by educational planners at some point. For, if universities do not willingly elect to consider this problem early in the planning process, then consideration of these issues may be forced upon them at a later date by the callous workings of the labor market. 17 Data on projected supply more recent than those presented in Table 1 indi- cate that degree outputs for most disciplines are running considerably ahead of the levels originally predicted. Thus it is possible that the surpluses of degree recipients forecast here for 1975 and 1980 may be rather conserva- tive estimates. BIBLIOGRAPHY [l] Bezdek, Roger H. Manpower Implications of Alternate Patterns of Demand for Goods and Services • Report prepared for the Manpower Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor, June 1971- [2] , and James G. Scoville. Manpower Implications of Reordering National Priorities . Washington, D.C.: National Urban Coalition, 1971. [3] , Hugh Folk, Anthony Graziano, and George Russell. College-Educated Manpower in the State of Illinois, 1970-80 . Report prepared for the Long-range Planning Committee of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1971* [k] Cartter, Allan M. "Scientific Manpower Trends for I97O-I985 and Their Implications for Higher Education." Paper presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science Chicago Meetings, Chicago, Illinois, December 27, 1970. [5] Folger, John K. "The Balance Between Supply and Demand for College Graduates." The Journal of Human Resources , Vol. II, no. 2 (Spring 1967), pp. 11+3-175 ■ [6] , Helen S. Astin, and Alan E. Bayer. Human Resources and Higher Education . New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1970. [7] Folk, Hugh. The Shortage of Scientists and Engineers . Lexington, Massachusetts, D.C. Heath, 1970. [8] Frumkin, Norman. Manpower Implications of Alternate Priorities for Coping with Poverty . Washington, D.C: National Planning Association, 1969* [9] Hansen, W. Lee. "The Economics of Scientific and Engineering Manpower." The Journal of Human Resources , Vol. II, no. 2 (Spring 1967), pp. 191-220. [10] Lecht, Leonard A. Manpower Needs for National Goals in the 1970' s . New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1969* [11] Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Manpower Forecasting in Educational Planning . Paris: 0ECD, 1966. [12] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tomorrow ' s Manpower Needs . Bulletin 1606, four volumes. Washington, D.C: USGP0, I969. [13] , . Patterns of U.S. Economic Growth . Bulletin 1672. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970. [Ik] , . The U.S. Economy in 1980 . Bulletin 1673. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970. [15] , • Occupational Outlook for College Graduates , 1970-71 edition. Bulletin l68l. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971- Bibliography Page 2 [16] University of Illinois. Projections of State of Illinois and National Degrees and Enrollments by Broad Areas of Study and Educational Level . Supportive analytical study II of the University of Illinois ten-year plan, June 1969. [17] University of Illinois Provisional Development Plan, 1971-72 Through 1980-81 . Prepared for presentation to the Illinois Board of Higher Education, September 1970. UNCLASSIFIED SecurityClaaaification DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA -R&D (Security claaalllcatlon ol llllm, body ol ebatrmct and Indexing annotation mutt be entered when the overall report I* elaealtled) I. ORIGINATING AC Tl vi TY (Corpormtm author) Center for Advanced Computation University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign Urbana, Illinois 6l801 2m. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED 2b. CROUP 3 REPORT TITLE ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP WORKING PAPER NO. 3 Long-Range University Planning in the Face of Variable Demands for Educated Manpower 4. DESCRIPTIVE NOTE* (Type ol report and Inclusive date*) Research Report 5- autmor(S) (Flrat narno, middle Initial, Imat name) Roger H. Bezdek «. REPORT OATE September 1, 1971 lm. TOTAL NO. or PACES 30 7b. NO. OF REFS •a. CONTRACT OR CRANT NO. DAHCOU 72- C- 0001 b. PROJECT NO. ARPA Order No. l899 M. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUMBERIS) CAC Document No. 13 •b. OTHER REPORT noisi (Any other numbera that may be aaalgned thla report) 10. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Copies may be obtained form the address given in (l) above, II. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES None 12. SPONSORING MILITARY ACTIVITY U:Sv Army Research Office-Durham Duke Station Durham, North Carolina 13. ABSTRACT This paper develops an empirical methodology whereby the detailed occupational manpower requirements likely to be generated by alternate economic futures may be related to demands for college-educated manpower on a regional or statewide basis. Several different concepts for the supply of and demand for educated manpower are discussed and it is emphasized that the effective demand (demand backed up by an allocation of resources) is the most important variable which must be considered in educational planning. National manpower demands are generated under several different assumptions for 1975 and 198O and these alternate occupational requirements are translated into demands for degree recipients from the Illinois system of higher education in the coming decade. The forecast demands are compared with the projected supply of degree recipients from Illinois in 1975 and 1980 and the resulting supply and demand imbalances are then estimated for each academic discipline. Large surpluses are forecast. for most degree areas under all assumptions and the implications of this for the state's long-range plans for higher education are discussed. DD , F »?..1473 UNCLASSIFIED Security Classification UNCLASSIFIED Security Classification KEY