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Problems of the Census. 
 
 OPENING ADDRESS 
 
 BEFORE THE 
 
 liEBiCAN Social Science Association 
 
 AT SARATOGA, SEPT. 5, 1887. 
 
 
 BY 
 
 CARROLL D. 
 
 WRIGHT, 
 
 THE PRESIDENT OF THE ASSOCIATION. 
 
 BOSTON : 
 
 WRIGHT & POTTER PRINTING COMPANY, 
 18 Post Office Square. 
 
 1887. 
 
I 
 
Working People’s Social 
 Science Club 
 
 Meets at Hull-House, 335 South Halsted Street, every Tuesday 
 evening at eight o’clock. An address of forty-five minutes 
 is followed by an hour of open discussion. 
 
 . . PROGRAMME . . 
 
 October 11Chicago Board of Health,” . . . Dr. Ware 
 
 October 18 —“Growth and Prevention of Filth, Disease, 
 
 Cholera, etc.” . . ' . . Dr Bayard Holmes 
 
 October 25—“A Nineteenth Ward Improvement Club.” 
 
 Various Speakers 
 
 November 1—“The Homestead Strike,” . . Bishop Fallow® 
 
 November 8—“Arbitration, Voluntary and Compulsory, ” 
 
 Hon. C. D. Dixon (framer of the Illinois Arbitration Acts) 
 
 November 15—“A Defense of the Right to Acquire 
 
 Property,” . . . . Z. S Holbrooke, LL.D. 
 
 November 22—“A Defense of the Chicago Board of 
 
 Trade,” ...... Mr. C. C. Catlin 
 
 November 29—“Social Theories of Ruskin and William 
 
 Morris.” ..... Miss Ellen Gates Starr 
 
 Decmber 6—“Municipal Government,” . . Judge K. A. Otis 
 

 
 
 3 ’ 
 
 m 
 
 M 
 
 t PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 <v 
 
 Opening Address before the American Social Science Association, 
 
 at Saratoga, Sept. 5 , 1887 . 
 
 BY CARROLL D. WRIGHT, 
 
 THE PRESIDENT OF THE ASSOCIATION. 
 
 
 V 
 
 Y 
 
 i 
 
 The adoption of a republican form of government necessi¬ 
 tated our Federal Census. It is a curious fact in the develop¬ 
 ment of statistical knowledge that the United States government 
 was the first to provide for a census under the authority of 
 organic law, to be taken at regular stated periods. Under the 
 law, and under the necessity, the first federal census was 
 taken in 1790. When the Eleventh Census, to be taken in 1890, 
 shall have been completed, the policy of our government in 
 this respect will have covered a century of time, and the senti¬ 
 ment which surrounds any centennial work will bring into 
 greater prominence than ever the regular enumeration of the 
 people and the collection of all the collateral facts compre¬ 
 hended by the census law. 
 
 Other nations, and all nations that have made any great 
 progress, have adopted the American plan of taking censuses 
 at regular intervals. Prior to the adoption of this plan, 
 enumerations of the people were ordered by governments 
 whenever any particular necessity, as an enumeration for 
 military purposes, demanded. The European Census, how¬ 
 ever, is one thing, the American Census another. 
 
 The federal census primarily was instituted for the purpose 
 of ascertaining simply the number of inhabitants in the country, 
 on which to base representation in the popular legislative 
 branch of our federal government. As time passed on and the 
 
4 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 necessities of enlarging became apparent, it was seen that 
 this enumeration should comprehend something more than the 
 numerical strength of the country. As legislation came nearer 
 and nearer the people this necessity grew accordingly, and 
 inquiries seeking facts as to the social conditions of the 
 inhabitants began to be added one after the other to the 
 census schedules, until now the five schedules authorized by 
 law cover a wide range of statistical inquiry. The European 
 censuses are simple, in relation to the amount of information to 
 be secured under them, rarely extending questions beyond those 
 involving number, age, birthplace, and occupation, but the Euro¬ 
 pean nations supplement their censuses by, or, to speak more 
 correctly, the European censuses are supplemental to, a vast 
 deal of work done by municipalities, such work including 
 the registration of births, deaths, and marriages, and various 
 other features which are only adopted in a fragmentary way in 
 this country. In our own country, in addition to the great 
 number of inquiries relative to social conditions, our census 
 comprehends, and has to a certain extent since 1810, certain 
 economic features relating to agriculture and manufactures. 
 The schedules now used, so far as the existing law is con¬ 
 cerned, are five in number, embodying inquiries relating, 
 first, to population and social statistics; second, agriculture; 
 third, manufactures; fourth, public indebtedness and other 
 matters ; and fifth, mortality. 
 
 In addition to the federal census several individual states 
 have censuses, more or less comprehensive in their character, 
 and usually coming on the mean year between the federal 
 decennial enumerations. Some of these state censuses are 
 taken with great pains, involving scientific features and 
 covering a wide range of inquiries. Others are taken simply 
 with a view to ascertain the number of the people and a few 
 facts concerning their condition. 
 
 O 
 
 The constant but gradual addition of inquiries to the federal 
 schedules has reached a point at which Congress may well 
 pause, and consider the practical utility of what has been, or 
 what may be done under the schedules as they exist. The 
 magnificent conception of General Walker for the Tenth Census, 
 that of 1880, which has commanded the admiration of the sta¬ 
 tisticians and economists of the whole world, was the natural 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 5 
 
 and perhaps logical outgrowth of the gradual elaboration of the 
 federal census. The results comprising 22 quarto volumes, or 
 a work equal in magnitude to the Encyclopedia Britannica, have 
 excited great interest, not only on the part of those scientifically 
 conversant with census work hut the public at large. It cannot 
 be claimed that the vast work of the Tenth Census is without 
 defects ; its skilful projector would make no such claim. It 
 has its defects, but chiefly those which are inherent in census 
 taking, and if the Tenth Census has done no more, it has devel¬ 
 oped the limit to which such undertakings can be carried. Its 
 cost has been little or no greater per capita than that of previous 
 censuses comprehending but a small proportion of the informa¬ 
 tion contained in the voluminous reports which have appeared. 
 
 The value of the Tenth Census cannot be estimated. Con¬ 
 gress provided liberally to carry it out on the basis projected. 
 It rose far above the five primary schedules of the census and 
 became encyclopedic in its character. It is doubtful, however, 
 whether it would be expedient for,a long term of years, a gen¬ 
 eration perhaps, to again conduct the decennial census on so 
 comprehensive a basis. In fact, there are many public men 
 who insist that future enumerations shall be confined to the 
 simple enumeration contemplated by the framers of the consti¬ 
 tution, and for the purposes only for which it w r as originally 
 instituted. Such a course, however, cannot be followed. The 
 necessities of the case will prevent. Congress itself is the 
 freest user of census returns, and if the public, which now takes 
 a greater interest than ever before in census taking, can be led 
 to appreciate the distinctions in the results, the value of the 
 information secured can be greatly enhanced. 
 
 It is a timely topic then for this association to discuss and 
 to consider what problems can be solved, or what solutions can 
 be aided through the instrumental]’tv of the next and succeeding 
 censuses, taking it for granted that the people and Congress 
 will at once insist upon increased efficiency and increased 
 accuracy of a census to be taken upon a basis which shall be 
 simple but of sufficient scope to meet the actual wants of 
 the age; for it is recognized that no question involving the 
 welfare of the nation can be discussed without reference to the 
 census. No speech upon national topics can be made in Con¬ 
 gress without using the various facts ascertained through the 
 
6 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 decennial enumeration. No economic study, no analysis of 
 social conditions, can be carried on without extensive use of 
 the various features of a national or a state census; and yet 
 there is no task which the government can ^et for its officers to 
 perform so thankless as that of census taking, and perhaps none 
 that can show more thorough accomplishment when the great 
 work is completed and the irritation of census taking has 
 passed away. 
 
 It should be borne in mind, when census work is being con¬ 
 sidered, either from a statistical point of view or from the 
 standpoint of administration, that two grades of results are 
 reached. First, results which are in their very nature valuable 
 only because of their being aggregations. Such results should 
 be accurate. Second, those which can only approximate aggre¬ 
 gations and accuracy, or results which are just as valuable 
 through representative information as if accurate aggregates 
 had been ascertained. 
 
 This leads me to assert that the principle of falsus in uno , 
 falsus in omnibus cannot be applied to the census. I have seen 
 it argued many times, and by men who should know much 
 better, because one feature or one line of statements in a 
 census report were faulty or even vicious, that all statements 
 in the same census must be faulty or vicious.' This is not a 
 logical position, and it is well for us to understand this in the 
 beginning of our consideration. For instance, the information 
 relative to the number of inhabitants, their birthplaces, their 
 occupations, their color and race, their conjugal condition, 
 the number constituting a family, and the relation of each to 
 the head of the family, are points on which positive and accu¬ 
 rate information concerning nearly all the people is usually and 
 easily obtained. With the exception of occupations, the state¬ 
 ments in the Tenth Census in regard to these points are 
 entitled to the fullest confidence. These are features relating 
 to conditions as they exist, the answers to the enumerator 
 regarding them calling for no great degree of intelligence or the 
 exercise of memory beyond facts perfectly familiar. There is 
 another line of inquiry, the answers to which maybe, and often 
 are, very faulty, and the conclusions based upon them as faulty 
 as the statements. As for instance, the questions as to the parent 
 nativity of the people, their illiteracy, physical condition, and 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 7 
 
 others of like character, the answers to which involve memory 
 or the interest of the parties furnishing information. The 
 inquiry as to the age of each person in the community involves 
 some cloudiness in the answer, and yet on the whole the results 
 are satisfactory, the chief difficulty being with imported citizens, 
 who rarely remember their age as to years but usually give it 
 at the nearest even period; so one will always find in all age 
 statistics, wherever they have been collected, whether in this 
 or in other countries, a concentration on quinquennial periods. 
 This concentration, however, is growing less and less in our 
 own country, as the influence of the public schools reaches a 
 larger and larger number of our children. Until this concen¬ 
 tration is reduced to a minimum the a«'e statistics secured under 
 
 O 
 
 the census cannot be used in a strictly scientific sense for the 
 establishment of mortality rates, either for insurance purposes 
 or for the common use of determining the age death rate. In 
 some localities, however, they are so nearly accurate as to be 
 exceedingly valuable for scientific purposes. 
 
 Statistics of illiteracy receive much public attention. While 
 it is evident from inherent conditions that the statistics of illit¬ 
 eracy cannot be correct, it is fully apparent that whatever mis¬ 
 leading inferences may be drawn from them, such inferences 
 are on the side of safety, for if, for instance, under the Tenth 
 Census the returns showed that six million people of ten years 
 of age and over were illiterate in the sense that they could 
 neither read nor write, or that they had not acquired one or 
 the other of these accomplishments, it is perfectly safe to con¬ 
 clude that the number was no less than six million, but, as a 
 matter of fact, much greater than that. So, any action taken 
 by states individually or by the federal government, based 
 upon the census returns relative to illiteracy, will be the result 
 of truth, or less than the truth, and no harm, therefore, can 
 result from their use, even though the number of illiterates given 
 may be only a small proportion of the truth. 
 
 In 1875 the number of aliens in Massachusetts was ascer¬ 
 tained by the state census, and in 1885 this feature was again 
 incorporated and results by place of birth and other particulars 
 secured. In order to show the absorption or non-absorption of 
 immigrants in the ranks of citizenship, and also the extent to 
 which the privileges of our form of government are enjoyed by 
 
8 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 those who fail to attest their loyalty to our institutions by 
 renouncing all foreign allegiance, it might be expedient to 
 incorporate inquiries in the schedules of the Eleventh Census 
 that will supply full information concerning the ages, place of 
 birth, occupations, illiteracy, etc., of our alien population. 
 The value of such information lies in the fact that they are 
 true to the extent given and no harm can come from incom¬ 
 pleteness. 
 
 Another class of facts, which can, from the nature of things, 
 rarely be ascertained, relate to physical, mental, and moral 
 conditions. No enumeration of the insane, for instance, would 
 be accepted by our worthy secretary, an expert in such matters, 
 as correct. In my own State when I give the number of the 
 insane,' as ascertained under the census, I am perfectly well 
 aware that his opinion is worth more than my facts. It is easy 
 to secure the number of insane, as collected in institutions for 
 their care, but the most searching census cannot ascertain 
 accurately the number of insane persons in a state. It can 
 secure the most of them; it can secure all those that are insane 
 to such an extent that their insanity is recognized in the com¬ 
 munity in which they live, but the liner gradations cannot be 
 comprehended, except in a partial degree. It is safe, therefore, 
 to say that the number of insane reported by any census, in any 
 state, does not equal the fact. There is much danger in this 
 class of statistics. We draw conclusions in regard to the 
 increase of insanity, conclusions which may be true or false, 
 but more often false, because previous enumerations may have 
 stated and probably did state only half the truth, while sub¬ 
 sequent enumerations may give four-fifths of the truth, and 
 conclusions are usually based on the assumption that the whole 
 truth was given in each case. 
 
 The prevalence of idiocy can only be ascertained to a partial 
 extent, the results being even more faulty than those relating 
 to insanity, because a family might hesitate about giving the 
 facts relative to an idiot child when they would not hesitate to 
 state that an insane person was a member of the family. 
 
 These instances sufficiently illustrate what I mean when I 
 assert that some statements of a census may be absolutely false, 
 and any conclusions based upon them vicious in the extreme, 
 while other statements in the same census may be considered 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 9 
 
 as accurate, and deductions drawn from them acceptable, even 
 in any scientific use to which they may be put. 
 
 Of course, there are men and writers who prefer their own 
 views, the results of their personal observation, to the positive 
 statements of census officers. The common error of the empir¬ 
 ical statistician is “to test facts by theory, instead of making 
 facts the test.” Men use a theory oftentimes as mechanics use 
 calipers; if the fact does not fit the theory it is thrown aside, 
 and not considered a fact. To a certain class of reformers, 
 theorists, and specialists, a fact is a red flag, and when shaken 
 in the face of their opinions has the same effect as when a red 
 flag is shaken before the eyes of a bull in the arena. 
 
 There is another class who like to take the census with a 
 slate and pencil. These gentlemen arc already at work on the 
 Eleventh Census of the United States. They have figured out 
 the population of the whole country, and of leading cities, and 
 no enumeration under the federal law will convince these gen¬ 
 tlemen that the population is different from what they have 
 estimated. 
 
 The characteristics of the census are often reversed in their 
 order by men who prefer observation to fact. They cling to 
 the features of the census which cannot, by the very nature of 
 things, be accurate, and they attack and antagonize those fea¬ 
 tures which are more likely than all others to be precisely as 
 stated in the census reports. 
 
 Now, the solution of social problems depends upon the faith¬ 
 fulness, of course, of the parties whose duty it is to collect 
 facts. The faithfulness of these parties in turn depends upon 
 the extent or the comprehensiveness of the census inquiries. 
 The intelligence of the people constitutes an important factor, 
 but in any community where a census is possible this intelli¬ 
 gence is fully equal to answering the questions which legiti¬ 
 mately belong in the schedules. 
 
 The progress of insanity can be ascertained through the cen¬ 
 
 sus, and the present problem as to whether insanity increases 
 with our advancing civilization, increased facilities for securing 
 education, and all the beneficent influences which we boast 
 comes from our advanced position, can be solved. It is a vital 
 question and one which demands the persistent efforts of the 
 government in ascertaining exact facts. It will take several 
 
10 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 decades of years, however, to bring the enumeration of the 
 insane to such perfection that the margin of error growing out 
 of insufficient data shall no longer be a factor in determining 
 results. In this work the states can perform far more satisfac¬ 
 tory labor than can the federal government. 
 
 Another line of information sought for by the federal cen¬ 
 sus, of necessity, are the statistics of mortality. Several of 
 the states have established registration boards or created regis- 
 tration offices for the registration of births, deaths, and mar¬ 
 riages through municipal and county returns. This is in 
 conformity to the European custom and is the only method 
 by which the facts relating to births, deaths, and marriages can 
 be ascertained with the fullest degree of accuracy. But 
 the states of the union are so few which have taken up this 
 work that the federal census takers have added to their 
 schedules one relating to mortality, and so in those states not 
 collecting such statistics a series of questions is asked con¬ 
 cerning deaths occurring during the year closing with the 
 census day. A moment’s consideration of this point convinces 
 any one that such statistics must be far from satisfactory; they 
 are, however, always less than the truth. It would seem at first 
 glance quite impossible for a family, in giving information to 
 an enumerator, to forget that a death had occurred during the 
 previous year; yet such is often the case, and the consequence 
 is that death rates in localities where medical science would 
 insist they were the highest are often shown to be the lowest. 
 The death rate in states where there is a reasonably accurate 
 registration of deaths under legal requirements is often higher, 
 so far as statistics show, than is ascertained through the census 
 for states where such requirements do not exist. This defect is 
 true as relates to births and marriages, and yet I see no reason 
 why the United States census should not be made to compre¬ 
 hend such statistics in those states where registration reports 
 are not required. Even with their defects they become more 
 and more accurate, and are useful, as time goes on, in 
 determining the increase or decrease in death rates for any 
 specified locality, but they are, and must be, quite useless in 
 comparing rates in communities widely separated and which 
 come under varying sanitary conditions or conditions of 
 disease. 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 11 
 
 Censuses of mortality can solve the relative death rates 
 of different races in this country, a question which constitutes 
 a vital problem. Plow exceedingly valuable it would be could 
 the exact facts in this connection be determined in regard to 
 the Indians, the colored people, the adopted citizens of differ¬ 
 ent climes as in comparison with the death rate of what may 
 be called American stock, nor would there be any less value 
 connected with the birth and marriage rates of the same classes 
 
 of people. In some of our states where birth, death, and mar¬ 
 riage returns are required by law these facts can be determined, 
 and logical conclusions drawn therefrom, but unfortunately for 
 the scientist these returns are rarely called for in the very 
 communities where they would be most useful in solving the 
 problems involved in them. 
 
 The division of labor which marks this a<>*e as distinct in all 
 
 O 
 
 its industrial features from previous periods constitutes a very 
 interesting study. The attempt has been made in the Census 
 of 1885, for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the reports 
 of which are now rapidly approaching completion, to ascertain 
 and report to the finest degree the various but distinctly 
 designated divisions of labor, so far as the occupations of the 
 people are involved. Incomprehensible as it may seem, this 
 classification shows over 20,000 distinct designations. This 
 classification, in connection with nationality as shown by place 
 of birth, age periods, and illiteracy, constitutes a fine contribu¬ 
 tion to sociological knowledge. This has been done in Massa¬ 
 chusetts. It may be done for the United States in the future, 
 now that the basis has been laid. 
 
 The statistics of place of birth and parent nativity are among 
 the most valuable features of the census, a value which is more 
 thoroughly appreciated at the present time through the popu¬ 
 lar discussion of the question of the restriction of immigration. 
 The census renders one perfectly competent to show the absorp¬ 
 tion of foreign elements in various branches of industry, and 
 the extent of the absorption. The Tenth Census, should this 
 question come before Congress, contains the only present 
 means of determining, so far as industry is concerned, the 
 influence of such absorption. 
 
 There are still sociological conditions which have not been 
 included in the federal census and which it may not be advis- 
 
12 
 
 PKOBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 able to incorporate in the schedules. Some of these have 
 been adopted in our Massachusetts Census with success, the 
 most important of them being questions as to the birth rate 
 among foreign and American mothers, this birth rate being 
 brought into comparison with the number of children reared. 
 It embraces one of the most interesting questions for the social 
 scientist, and, so far as I know, the Massachusetts State Census 
 furnishes the only facts of like nature obtainable in this or any 
 other country. It has been a piece of experimental work on 
 the part of the state. It only indicates what can be done in 
 solving scientific questions, when the people are asked to 
 answer inquiries directed to what on the surface may be con¬ 
 sidered matters on which the state should make no inquiry. 
 The extension of special inquiries in the direction named, that 
 is, those aimed at the real inside life of the people, is to my 
 mind perfectly justifiable. The law making power of the state, 
 especially in America, is constantly called upon to exercise 
 greater and greater supervision over the affairs of the people. 
 To do this it has to assume autocratic power. Boards of 
 health can order private dwellings to be vacated, and the con¬ 
 venience of the individual in such cases is sacrificed to the 
 welfare of the community. This spirit prevails in all direc¬ 
 tions. The law making branch of our governments cannot 
 resist the demands; call it socialism, if you choose, the 
 tendency is as strong as it is perceptible, and as inevitable as 
 it is strong. We insist that the dependent classes shall be 
 cared for at the public expense ; we say that individual mem¬ 
 bers of society shall be relieved of special taxation for the 
 support of the dependent, because their support is for the 
 benefit of the whole community. The doctrine is right, and 
 just, and moral. This being the case, the legislature meets the 
 demand. Shall it meet the demand intelligently or blindly? 
 The statistician says he should meet it intelligently, and that 
 statistical science is the chief source of intelligence in such 
 matters. Statistics covering the whole community must be 
 taken through the census. It must comprehend all or none. 
 So, as the inquiries of the census have become enlarged, per¬ 
 sons afflicted with acute and chronic diseases, the blind, deaf, 
 dumb, maimed, lame, insane, idiotic, paralytic, bedridden, and 
 other afflicted persons, have come under the searching inqui- 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 13 
 
 ries of the enumerator. The people object to these things when 
 the inquiry comes. They insist upon intelligent legislation 
 regarding them. Popular antagonism to such inquiries must, 
 therefore, be ignored by the legislature, in order to meet the 
 advanced demands of the very people who create the antagonism. 
 
 The Tenth Census sought information on these points to a 
 fuller extent than ever before, yet the facts secured were so in¬ 
 complete that little or no use was made of them. This should 
 not prevent their repetition to a reasonable degree. 
 
 So with homeless children and paupers. Our pauperism in¬ 
 creases much faster statistically than actually, because we are 
 constantly classifying new features of pauperism. Statistically, 
 we reach out and take in all that are in any way dependent 
 upon the public treasury. As against the old crude and unde¬ 
 fined information relative to pauperism, we have intelligent, 
 comprehensive statistics, which, in themselves, prove a vast 
 increase in pauperism, because we try to match comparative 
 accuracy with crudeness. The result is against us in this period. 
 We must go on with the statistical research, however, until 
 accuracy is the rule, and the comparisons are made on the con¬ 
 ditions of accuracy and become as intelligent as the facts them¬ 
 selves. When the legislature appreciates the exact propor¬ 
 tions of pauperism, as pauperism includes not only the 
 ordinary condition known as such but that of all the homeless 
 children which must be cared for by society, it can shape its 
 law making with greater intelligence and with more advantage 
 to the community. 
 
 Social statistics should go still further, and comprehend all 
 conditions of work, of education, and of school attendance, sur¬ 
 rounding the children of the land. All these ramifications of 
 statistical knowledge have been brought within the scope of the 
 census, because the knowledge Avas demanded by the people of 
 the government. The government is wise that recognizes the 
 demand and furnishes the information. 
 
 Believing, as I do, that advanced sociological knowledge can 
 be, and should be secured through the instrumentality of fed¬ 
 eral and state censuses, I would still insist that the collection 
 of such knowledge, so far as methods are concerned, be confined 
 to the simplest forms possible and to such proportions as to 
 bring it under actual enumeration. 
 
14 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 So far I have treated of social statistics; those relating en- 
 tirely to people, as people, in their conditions in society, and 
 in the relations of individual to individuals and to the State. 
 These features are common in a greater or less degree to all 
 advanced countries, the information concerning them, as I have 
 said, not being always ascertained through the census. A 
 feature of our United States census, which is not common in 
 other nations but which belongs entirely to the American 
 plan, relates to industrial statistics. In 1810 the government 
 undertook, at the time of the enumeration of that year, to col¬ 
 lect information relating to the industries of the country, so far 
 as manufactures were concerned. Eventually, of course, this 
 effort was extended to agriculture, so that now, and in several 
 decennial censuses, the progress of the country, and various 
 facts relating to production, have become important features of 
 our enumerations. Much harm has been done, as well as great 
 good accomplished, by this extension of census powers. It is 
 often urged that Congress has no right to collect such informa- 
 tion, but the constitution clearly gives authority to Congress to 
 take such action as shall be necessary for the general informa¬ 
 tion of the people. How far such inquiries may be extended 
 is a legitimate question. The principle involved is generally 
 acknowledged now as being sound and in the interest of the 
 
 o o 
 
 best public polity. I am satisfied, however, that any elaborate 
 attempt on the part of the federal government in the direc¬ 
 tion of securing information of economic importance will be, 
 as it has been, attended with ill success. The extent to which 
 efforts should be made seems to me to be quite clearly estab¬ 
 lished by experience in this direction under federal and state 
 censuses. The problems which can be solved are few but 
 important, and these should be clearly understood before 
 inquiries are made to secure general economic information. 
 
 I said just now that much harm had been done since 1810 
 through the industrial features of the federal census. There 
 has been no desire to do harm, but the harm has come as 
 results, first, of imperfect inquiries, or inquiries of insufficient 
 scope; and second, from an indisposition on the pail of manu¬ 
 facturers to give certain information, while perfectly willing to 
 give facts in general, thus creating great inharmony in the 
 results obtained. I have called public attention so often dur- 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 15 
 
 ing the past few years to some of the harm which has been 
 done that I feel that I am simply repeating myself now in 
 again reciting the facts. Yet I believe it the duty of all men 
 engaged in any statistical work, or upon economic studies, to 
 do their utmost to secure accuracy in statistical undertakings, 
 and do not hesitate to again, and on this occasion, call public 
 attention to some of the evils of the industrial censuses. 
 
 The industrial schedule of the federal census, since it was 
 authorized by law and in nearly every census taken since and 
 including that of 1810, has contained inquiries relating to 
 capital invested, raw material or stock used, total wages paid, 
 aggregate product, and the number of employes, in the leading 
 industries of the country. To these simple inquiries the man¬ 
 ufacturers have from time to time made great opposition, 
 although, as a rule, they have supplied information as to all 
 the points involved, except capital invested. The census in¬ 
 quiry on this point has called simply for capital invested. In 
 this form lies the initial defect. In response to this the manu¬ 
 facturer has always been expected to state the capital actually 
 paid in and used in plant of whatever nature and as working 
 capital. That he has given nothing more has not been his 
 fault, for he has not been asked for more. What has been the 
 result? This can be more clearly indicated by a simple illus¬ 
 tration, and for figures I will use exact proportions as they 
 have occurred, simply putting them into round numbers but 
 preserving true relations. 
 
 Let us suppose an industry in which there are four establish¬ 
 ments, each producing $1,000,000 worth of product in a single 
 year, the total value of the product of the four establishments 
 being, therefore, $4,000,000. The capital invested of estab¬ 
 lishment No. 1 is $1,000,000, this amount of money having 
 been paid in by the proprietors and being sufficient in all 
 respects to cover plant of all kinds, tools, implements, and 
 working capital, for the production of $1,000,000 worth of 
 goods. Establishment No. 2 produces $1,000,000 worth also, 
 but has only $300,000 actually invested. It borrows annually 
 on the average $700,000, giving the establishment the use of 
 $1,000,000 of capital. Establishment No. 3 actually owns 
 $500,000 of capital, invested in proper ways, and borrows 
 $500,000 more. Establishment No. 4 uses $200,000 of its own 
 
16 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 capital and borrows $800,000. Each of these establishments 
 has, as I have said, produced $1,000,000 worth of goods during 
 the census year. The result for the four is $2,000,000 of capi¬ 
 tal actually paid in and $2,000,000 of borrowed capital. In 
 all census returns the $2,000,000 capital paid in would be the 
 whole amount of capital invested returned. The relation then 
 stands $2,000,000 of capital invested, producing $4,000,000 
 worth of product; the actual fact being, and a fact which has 
 never yet appeared in any census, that $4,000,000 were neces¬ 
 sary in capital for the production of the $4,000,000 worth of 
 goods. It is perfectly apparent on this statement, which, as I 
 have said, is a truthful illustration, that all calculations based 
 upon the returns must be vicious in toto , because $4,000,000 
 worth of product in the given industry cannot be secured by 
 the employment of $2,000,000 of capital, the necessary capital 
 being $4,000,000. One need not study this simple problem 
 very long to enable him to understand that one of the chief 
 factors of disturbances, or of antagonism, or of misunderstand¬ 
 ing between labor and capital, has grown from this misused 
 term of capital invested. No attempt has ever been made in 
 this country, until that put forth in the Census of Massachu¬ 
 setts for 1885, to correct the egregious error. Credit capital, 
 it is submitted, if used, is just as essential to secure a certain 
 product as the capital that is owned by an establishment itself. 
 Leaving out the factor of the expensiveness of the use of bor¬ 
 rowed capital, of the fictitious or inflated value which is given 
 to the product by such use, and limiting ourselves to the purely 
 economic relations of capital and product, infinite harm has 
 been done by the old method of procedure. To solve the 
 problem of the amount of capital required to secure a given 
 product in each of the leading industries of a country is within 
 the ability of the census taker. The manufacturers have stood 
 in their own light. The manufacturer tells you at once that 
 $2,000,000 of capital cannot produce $4,000,000 worth of 
 ffoods. The conclusive answer to his statement is that such is 
 
 c 
 
 the return he has made. He then tells you that census statis¬ 
 tics are vicious, and he is correct in this particular instance. 
 If you attempt to correct this error by asking him to account 
 for his whole capital, that paid in and that borrowed, in fact, 
 all the capital which he uses to secure a given product, he 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 17 
 
 antagonizes the work of the state by saying that you are prying 
 into his private affairs. He does not perceive that he has 
 deceived not only himself and his employes but the public 
 generally, and that every argument, conclusion, or deduction, 
 based upon the statistics reported as giving the capital invested 
 in manufacturing, is false in all its elements and consequently 
 exerts a vicious influence in every direction. 
 
 Great difficulty has been experienced in solving this problem 
 in my own State, in the recent census, through just this class 
 of antagonism. I am happy to say, however, that so far as 
 the matter has been explained to manufacturers and they have 
 comprehended the situation, they have cheerfully complied 
 with the State’s request, until all or nearly all manufacturers 
 of any consequence, those carrying on any business of a suffi¬ 
 cient magnitude to entitle them to the name of manufacturers, 
 have complied with the State’s requirements, and we shall be 
 able, for the first time in the history of this country’s industrial 
 statistics, to show the true ratio of capital invested to product. 
 
 The difficulty which I have stated is not the only complica¬ 
 tion which exists. For instance, a man goes into the business 
 of manufacturing a line of goods with little or no capital, say 
 $5,000, but he has an excellent credit. He purchases raw 
 material and all his supplies on long time, three, four, or six 
 months, but sells the product of his establishment for cash or 
 its equivalent. In this condition of affairs he may produce say 
 $200,000 worth of goods in a given year, having but $5,000 
 actually invested. In all census statistics this would be the 
 only sum that would appear, while $200,000 would appear as 
 the value of the product. The truth is he has borrowed of his 
 own customers sufficient capital to produce the $200,000 worth 
 of goods. 
 
 These illustrations are sufficient to show the viciousness of 
 all census statements which have yet appeared in this country, 
 whether in my own reports or elsewhere, relative to capital 
 invested and its product, in the various leading industries. 
 It does not matter where capital used in the production 
 of goods comes from, whether it be paid in by the proprietors 
 of an establishment, whether it be borrowed by them, or 
 whether it be the result of long time purchases of material; 
 so long as all these elements of capital are essential to secure 
 
18 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 a given product, they constitute capital invested and should 
 be covered by any census inquiry into industrial conditions. 
 
 Another error which has been made relates to average earn¬ 
 ings, as ascertained by dividing the aggregate wages paid in 
 any industry by the number of employes involved. In all 
 censuses where industrial statistics have been a feature in this 
 country, until the Tenth Census, the question relating to em¬ 
 ployes has simply been the “ number of hands employed.” 
 What is the number of hands employed? Can you ascertain 
 the true quotient which shall represent average wages by 
 dividing the total amount of wages paid during a year in any 
 given industry by the total number of hands employed? I 
 assert that you cannot, for the number of hands employed 
 returned under the old form of inquiry simply meant the 
 number of employes borne on the rolls at the close of the census 
 year, while the total wages paid represented the aggregate 
 amount disbursed in the form of wages to all who had been 
 employed at any time during the same year; the number 
 of people returned might represent a much larger number at 
 the close of the year than were employed at any other period, 
 or the reverse, a much smaller number. In any event, and 
 with the utmost care on the part of the manufacturer, it would 
 be impossible in the answer to such a form of inquiry to state 
 anything more than the number employed at the end of the 
 year, or at some stated period. 
 
 Under the Tenth Census the form of inquiry was changed so 
 as to bring out a statement of the average number employed 
 during: the year, which constituted the divisor to enter into the 
 dividend of total wages ; but this is vicious also, for the average 
 number does not represent the actual number to whom wages 
 were paid nor in any sense represent the mathematical distri¬ 
 bution of the same amount of money. A very much larger 
 number of individuals might have been involved, or a very 
 much smaller number, during a large proportion of the year. 
 The only way in which the actual average earnings of the em¬ 
 ployes in a large establishment, or in all the establishments in 
 a given industry, can be secured through the census is by the 
 tedious mathematical process of calculating each man’s time and 
 the actual amount paid to him. This I submit cannot be done 
 without such a great amount of labor as to make it practically 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 19 
 
 impossible ; nor can a government reasonably require the manu¬ 
 facturers of a community to give such time as would be 
 necessary for a complete and accurate answer to the inquiry. 
 
 These two questions, capital invested and average wages, 
 illustrate the fallacy of attempting to solve a certain line 
 of economic questions through the census as it has existed. 
 In making this criticism let it be understood that I arraign 
 myself as severely as any one else, for until within a few years 
 I have followed, in all the census work in which I have been 
 engaged, the old form, nor did I fully comprehend the enor¬ 
 mity of the error, the infinite harm it has done and is likely to 
 do, until I undertook to ascertain the relation of capital inves¬ 
 ted to product, with a view to learning the proportion of 
 product which went to capital and labor respectively. It is now 
 also perfectly apparent to me that when census questions relat¬ 
 ing to industry are so framed as to secure thoroughly worthless 
 results, there is no difficulty whatever in taking a census, but 
 the moment they are framed to secure valuable results, the census 
 taker meets with innumerable obstacles and the greatest antag- 
 onism on the part of the very men whose interest it should be 
 to furnish thoroughly accurate statistics. This is a question of 
 educational influence to be exercised by careful statisticians, by 
 securing the confidence of the producers of the country in the 
 statement that no harm shall come from their giving free, full, 
 and accurate answers to all the inquiries instituted by the gov¬ 
 ernment. 
 
 The only way to secure the best results of an industrial cen¬ 
 sus is to bring the inquiries to simple, easily understood forms, 
 involving individual facts, relieved of all features of compound 
 inquiry, thus avoiding compound answers. These inquiries, it 
 seems to me, may be limited to the following items in general, 
 that is to say, the census should ascertain : 
 
 First: the capital invested in each industry, the term capital 
 invested comprehending all that I have stated. 
 
 Second : the value of the principal stock or raw material 
 used. 
 
 Third : the gross quantity and value of articles manufactured, 
 as represented by their selling value. 
 
 Fourth : the number of partners or stockholders ; the largest, 
 
20 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 smallest, and average number of persons employed, distin¬ 
 guishing as to sex, adults, and children. 
 
 Fifth: the total wages paid during the year, distinguishing 
 also as to sex, adults, and children. 
 
 Sixth : the proportion that the business of the year bore to 
 the greatest capacity for production of the establishment. 
 
 Seventh : the number of weeks in operation during the year, 
 partial time being reduced to full time. 
 
 I do not believe there is any need of extending the inquiries 
 beyond these. The forms might be modified or varied, but the 
 principles involved should be retained. Each and every one 
 of the inquiries are of great value, and from them results of the 
 greatest importance to the manufacturers themselves ought to 
 be secured. The inquiry relating to the number of persons 
 employed is the least practical of them all, yet as it is given it 
 is essential to any complete statistics. Such inquiries I would 
 have made at frequent intervals, the first effect of which would 
 be to enlighten the public mind in regard to the supposed loss 
 in the volume of production during years when it is appre¬ 
 hended that an industrial depression prevails. In fact, a state¬ 
 ment at short intervals of the volume of production in the 
 leading industries of the country would go far towards remov¬ 
 ing apprehension as to such depressions. 
 
 The next great advantage to be gained from a frequent 
 inquiry upon a simple basis like that designated relates to the 
 proportion that the business of the year in any industry bore 
 to the greatest capacity for production of the establishments 
 existing in the same industry. Such an inquiry, when an¬ 
 swered correctly, supplies means for a comparison between 
 the actual business done during the year involved and the 
 greatest business that could have been done if all the establish¬ 
 ments had been run to their fullest capacity, that is, if the 
 greatest possible number of employes that could have been 
 advantageously employed, with a certain plant or facilities, had 
 been employed actively on all the working days during the 
 year to the fullest capacity. Such a line of facts would 
 supply material for the proper management of great productive 
 establishments in such a way that the output could be more 
 scientifically considered, and some of the haphazard methods of 
 production now in vogue eliminated. 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 21 
 
 Practically, I do not believe manufacturers would object to 
 such a schedule as I have indicated. There is nothing in it to 
 involve great labor, while it supplies all the material informa¬ 
 tion which it is wise to comprehend in the census, and if the 
 approaching Eleventh Census can secure information in ac¬ 
 cordance with such inquiries, modified, if need be, in form, the 
 influence upon the public mind will be so salutary that I believe 
 the states themselves will eventually inaugurate movements to 
 secure at short intervals the same class of facts. 
 
 Manufacturing statistics, as contemplated by the ordinary 
 census schedule used in the federal censuses, cannot give such 
 information as to enable one to classify wages to any great 
 extent or to ascertain earnings. Rates of wages, and all facts 
 relating to rates of wages, possible earnings, actual earnings, 
 labor conditions, and various other features, must be left to 
 special investigations. The gross quantity of goods manufac¬ 
 tured should be brought out in the fullest way, in such an 
 account as I have indicated, because quantity is the true meas¬ 
 ure of production rather than value. This and other questions, 
 the value of the answers to which depends upon complete aggre¬ 
 gates, can be secured through the federal census, but the 
 federal census should be relieved of a great deal of the minu¬ 
 tiae of statistical work by state bureaus and offices. In fact, 
 with the twenty-two bureaus of statistics of labor, the boards 
 of agriculture, and offices of industrial statistics, which exist 
 in this country, we ought to eliminate the minute details of 
 inquiry in many directions which have heretofore formed a part 
 of the federal census. 
 
 Perhaps the greatest difficulty which confronts the federal 
 census taker, and which offers the least possibility of solving 
 problems, is to be found in the agricultural department of the 
 work. The products of various localities differ so widely in 
 their character and kind, that any single schedule framed to 
 comprehend them all becomes in itself impracticable. Yet cer¬ 
 tain facts, like total value and quantity of the great staple prod¬ 
 ucts, ought to be easily ascertained. The question of renting 
 or ownership, of the acreage of the farms, of alien ownership, 
 are entirely within the possibilities of census taking without 
 enlarging the field of operations. Such problems ought to be 
 readily solved. They have been solved for the time being in 
 
22 
 
 PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 past censuses. As the conditions vary the problems vary, and 
 the intelligence of the government should see to it that the 
 facts sought should be those necessary to indicate the true 
 relations of things in the agricultural field of knowledge. 
 
 From what has been said it is readily seen that there is quite 
 a range of problems, the elements for the solution of which can 
 only be supplied through comprehensive censuses. As yet, 
 however, no co-ordinate effort has been made between the state 
 and federal governments for systematic work. This question 
 is difficult and yet important. Its importance lies in this reflec¬ 
 tion, that no member of a state or the national government can 
 intelligently discuss the land question, the solution of the im¬ 
 migration problem, the question of how far educational efforts 
 shall be extended, the tariff problem, the questions of cur¬ 
 rency, of railroad transportation, in fact, any question of any 
 great state or national importance, without full and constant 
 reference to the tables of the census reports. 
 
 This being the case, and census work becoming more and 
 more complicated, as all these great questions come nearer and 
 nearer to the people, how important it is that the whole range 
 of census taking should be reduced to systematic forms and 
 methods. The United States cannot do it all, and do it well. 
 The country is too large to admit of extended inquiries through 
 the methods of enumeration. The States should enlist in the 
 work, and they could do it generally without much expense 
 through their established machinery. They should be called 
 upon by the federal government, but aided to the extent of the 
 results furnished, to do certain things at short intervals rela¬ 
 tive to the enumeration of the people, the ascertaining of 
 products, the ownership of land, and maybe half-a-score of 
 leading features, the federal census itself being confined to those 
 things which reach over the whole country and which may be 
 called purely national topics. Such a system, involving the 
 co-operation of the states, would not only simplify labor, but 
 would reduce the burden in many respects and would cer¬ 
 tainly remove much of the irritation which exists whenever 
 the census is taken; and further simplification should be 
 reached, as I have indicated, through special investiga¬ 
 tions. All census work, both state and national, should 
 leave out of sight every question which can be brought 
 
PROBLEMS OF THE CENSUS. 
 
 23 
 
 under the methods of special investigation, in which aggregates 
 are not essential but in which representative facts are just as 
 important as the total facts. 
 
 Expensive as have been the censuses of the United States, 
 the money appropriated by Congress for them has been one of 
 the most valuable investments it has ever made. The intelli¬ 
 gence of the people has been raised and social problems have 
 been partially, if not fully solved. The highest form of educa¬ 
 tional work comes through statistical efforts and labors, and the 
 United States government has certainly placed itself in the 
 very front rank in regard to this great field of knowledge. 
 The public estimation of the census increases also. Critical 
 as the press may be, sceptical as the public may become, the 
 census supplies the chief source of information as to conditions, 
 so far as the people in their various relations are concerned. It 
 is unnecessary to make any argument in favor of the census. 
 It is wise to call attention to its defects and to suggest methods 
 by which they can be avoided, by which it can become more 
 efficient, by which increased accuracy shall be gained, and by 
 which the census appropriations of Congress, and of various 
 states, shall be justified. 
 
 This association, since its organization, has inculcated most 
 advanced ideas on such matters, and its usefulness in the future 
 should far exceed its usefulness in the past. Its influence has 
 been salutary ; by its frequent appeals to the public intelligence 
 to supply sources of public information, it does its best and 
 most valuable work and justifies not only its existence, but its 
 prosperous continuance. 
 

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