iiiiiliSli^>:'::^vV, -^^ •. ! ^ LI B R.AFLY OF THE UN IVERSITY or ILLINOIS 016.7114 C73e r^o. 1-20 CITY PlAfJNING A.ifi LANDSCAPE ACCilirEC, Digitized by the Internet Arcinive in 2010 witii funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://www.archive.org/details/bibliographyofme1 1 schm Committee of Planning Librarians EXCHANGE BIBLIOGRAPffir Hawaii. Territorial Planning Office List no. 1 Dec. 1958 M BIBLIOGHilPHY OF FiETHODOLOGICAL STUDIES IN SJOLL-AREA POPULATION ESTB/MION AND PROJECTION ISSUED SINCE 19U5. Robert C. Schmitt, Senior Planner, Territorial Planning Office, Hawaii. This bibliography lists some of the more important studies relating to methods of eftimating or projecting the population of small areas published since the end of World Yiiar II. Only those studies which contain either definitive descriptions of techniques or actual testing of the methods are included. The bibliography omits therefore a number of publications in which prif^ary empnasis was on either brief reviews of previously-published materials or routine application of techniques described or tested earlier. The literature contains maiy such secondary or applied references. This bibliography is further limited to studies concerned with "small areas", that is. Standard Metropolitan Areas, counties, cities, census tracts, neighborhoods, and city blocks. Publications with only national, regional, or State- level implications are largely disregarded. It should be noted that a good deal of methodological research occurred before 19'i5} although much of this earlier work is new obsolescent or superseded by more recent studies. In any event, the more important pre-ViTorld War II studies have been recapitulated or reviewed in several of the postwar publications cited below. This bibliography is divided into foiu: major sections: general references, intercensal estimates, postcensal estimates, and forecasts or projections. The general references include those studies which are either too broad in nature to be subsumed under a more specific rubric or else relate, in varying degrees of pertinence, to estimating methodology without describing or testing any specific techniques. The section on intercensal estimation concerns methods ancxi^i'iiiJ ^^iniit>lH 'i.j 0'j.f,'-i.~-%'j -I I.'ricii'ii. '4 ..'J:h','fH ir'i-'f'C. {jflid :Uc-i J.C. CPL Exchange Bibliography 11 for approximating population as of a date between two previous enumerations. The section on postcensal estimates, in contrast, cites materials concerned ^vith estimates for dates between that of the most recent census and the present mo-nent. The section on forecasts refers to studies in methods of projecting the population of small areas beyond the time at which the estimate is made. It should be noted that several of the methods used in forecasting, such as arithmetic and geometric projection, have also been used in making current or postcensal estimates, especially where syrptoraatic data are lacking. Each of these sections is divided, where necessary, into sub-sections titled "Cities and Metropolitan Areas" and "Census Tracts", This dichotomous classification was chosen because of the basically different approaches required by the larger "small areas" and the smaller "small areas". general U. S. Bureau of the Census, Handbook of Statistical Methods for Demographers . Preliminary Edition - Second Printing. By A. J. Jaffe. ITashingtonj Government Printing Office, 19^1. A general review of the subject, chiefly with reference to national data. Chapter 7 is titled "Population Estimates". Robert C. Schmitt, "Demography and City Planning," Social Forces , vol. 30, no. 3, March, 19^2, pp. 300-30^. A critique of needs, sources, and techniques. National Industrial Conference Board, Inc., Growth Patterns of Cities . New York: National Industrial Conference Board, Inc., May, 1953. Use of Gonpertz curve to describe growth trends of twenty-four metropolitan areas. Hugh H. iliolfenden, Popul^.tion Statistics and Their Conpilation . Revised Edition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 19$U. Detailed review of demographic concepts and techniques, with special reference to actuarial statistics. Methods of making estimates and forecasts presented on pp. 76-9i;. Donald J, Bogue and Dorothy L. Harris, Comparative Population and Urban Research Via Multi p le Regression and Covariance Analysis . Oxford, Ohio: Scripps Foundation, 195U. -i methodological and substantive study of factors in the ■-l.:■>..z'^d^ ^1^ V-; CPL Exchange Bibliographer 11 growth 3nd-decentr3liz ti'on of Standard ^Metropolitan Areas frJjr I9I1O to. 1950. Edward Gross, "The Role of Density as a Factor in Metropolitan Growth in the United States of iiraerica," Population Studies , vol. 8, no. 2, November, 195h, pp. 113-120. Correlations between pop-alation density and number of inhabitants, arua, and core-to-fringe ratios of I68 Standard Metropolitan Arer^s and their central cities. John Hajnal, "The Prospects for Population Forecasts," Journal of the Ameri can S tatistical Association , vol. $0, no, 270, June, 1935, pp. 309-322. A pessimistic view regarding the accuracy of forecasts. Mortimer Spiegelnan, In troduction to Denography . Chicago: The Society of -icTuaries, 1955. Includes discussion of methods of estirriating intercensal and postcensal migration (ch. 10) and review of methodology for population estimates and forecasts (ch. 12), 0. D. Ducan and Albert J. heiss, Jr., Social Characteristics of Urban and Rural Co^umunitic 3, 1950 . Nev; York: John tvilev and Sons, Inc., 1956. Includes comparison of grooving and stable or duclining urban areas (ch, 15). H, V, Muhsam, "The Utilization of jdternative Population Forecasts in Planning," Bulletin of the Research Council of Israel , vol. 5, no. 2-3, sect. C. March-June 1956, pp. I33-IU6. Reprint. Suggestion that demographers attach probability statements to alternative forecasts, and that engineers use in conjunction yri.th estimated quantitative loss function. Noman E. Green, "Aerial Photographic Analysis of Residential Neighborhoods: J-^n Evaluation of Data .accuracy," Social Forces , vol. -35, no. 2, December. 1956,- pp. Il42-l)47. .accuracy of identification of residential structures and number of dwelling units per structure from aerial photographs. James Robert Crozier, Economic Base of Cities and Their Rate of Growth . Thesis presented to University of North Carolina, 1956. Summarized in Jou rnal of the .".merican Institute of Planners , vol. XXIII, no, 1, Winter 1957, p. 36^ Concludes from a test of selected cities that "the basic-service ratio of a city is not, in itself, a reliable indication of the growth potential of the city." CPL Exchange Bibliography 11 Donald J. Bogue, Henry S. Shiyock, Jr., and Siegfried A. Hoermann, S ubregional Migration in the United States, 193$-hO > Volume I, Streams of Migration Between Subregions . Oxford, Ohio: Scripps Foundation, 1957. Useful information on basic concepts and methodology (Ch. I), quality of Census data on migration (Ch. IV), and findings of a regression analysis of migration data (Ch. VII). Donald J. Bogue, Components of Population Change, 19UO-50i Estimates of Net M i g r ation and Natural Increase for Each Standard Metropolitan Area and State Economic Area . Oxford, Ohio: Scripps Foundation, 1957. Donald J. Bogue, Editor, Ap plications of Lemography: The Population Situation in the U. S. in 1975 . Cbcford, Ohio: Scripps Foundation, 1957. Intercensal Estimates Evelyn M. Kitagawa and Donald J. Bogue, Suburbanization of Manufacturing Activity uTithin Standard Metropolitan Areas . Oxford (Ohio) and Chicago: Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems, Miami University, and Population Research and Training Center, University of Chicago, 1955j Pp. 6-7. A "modification of the vital statistics procedure" to estimate the I9I48 population of Standard Metropolitan Areas from 19iiO and 1950 census figures and censal and intercensal data on births and deaths. Corresponding 19hSi estimates for the central city, places of more than 10,000 within the ring, and places under 10,000 in the ring were made by the ratio method. Albert H. Crosetti and Robert C. Schmitt, "A Method of Estimating the Intercensa]. Population of Counties, " Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 5l7 110 • 276, December 1956, pp. 5^7-590. Description and testing of the "ratio-correlation method" as vjell as various alternative techniques. Current Estimates Cities and Metropolitan Areas Hope T. Eldridge, "Problems and Methods of Estimating Postcensal Population," Social Forces , vol, 2h, no. 1, October, 19U5, pp. Iil-Li6. A discussion of the use and limitations of ration book registrations in preparing current estimates. i( Y/fc->Ti ^^^C\'^T^ 1,v ^'V » ttf . ■>■•'■ i. 7o 1-.' i-^.- ■^i7ii/:;'f+f?? "^'^ '^••>.'ls'' <■'" .H'^i;'""- /i CPL Exchange Bibliograpl^ 11 U. S. Bureau of the Census, "Suggested Procedures for Estimating the Current Population of Counties," Population - / Special Reports , Series P-U?, No. U, iipril 30, 19ii7. ^ Description oi two variations on the "migration and natural increase method" as used and recommended by the Bureau of the Census. Henry S. Shryock, Jr., "Postcensal Population Data for Cities," American Journal of Public Health , vol. 37, no. 11, November, 19^47, pp. lli55-lU60. Brief account of developments since 19U0. U, S. Bureau of the Census, "Illustrative Examples of Two ^ Methods of Estimating the Current Population of Small Areas," Current Population Reports , Series P-25, No. 20, May 6, 19U9. Detailed procedures for applying the "migration and natural increase method". Henry S. Shryock, Jr., and Norman Lawrence, "The Current Status of State and Local Population Estimates in the Census Bureau," Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol. \\h, no. 2U6, June, 19U9, pp. 157- 173. Includes test of accuracy of both forms of the "natural increase and migration method", arithmetic projection, and apportionment. Donald J. Bogue, "A Technique for Making Extensive Population Estimates," Journal of the Amijrican Statistical Associa- tion , vol. l;'57~no. 250, Juno, 1950, pp. Iit9-163. Des- cription of the "vital statistics method". Robert C. Schm.itt, "Short-Cut Methods of Estimating County / Population, " Jou rnal of the American Statistical Associa- tion , vol. h7, no. 25«, June, 1952, pp. 232-23tt. Jacob S, Siegel and C. Horace Hamilton, "Some Considerations in the Use of the Residual Kethod of Estimating Net Migration, " Journal of the ..merican Statistical ii.ssocia - tion, vol. U7, no. 259, September, 1952, pp. U75-500. Description and evaluation of methods of estimating net migration. John P. Commons, "City Popul?ition Estimates," Proceedings of the Twelfth Annual Conference of the iiVe stern Governmental Research ..ssociatio n. Berkeley: Office of the Secretariat, University of California, December, 1952, p. 10. Use of building permit data to estimate postcensal increase in number of dwelling units, as a basis for quarterly popula- tion estimates for Los Angeles. '■)tf ••"••'Tf'.l r CPL Exchange Bibliography 11 Robert C. Schmitt, "Differential Migration and City Population Estimates," Soc iology and Social Research , vol. 37 j no. 5, May-June,' 1953 J pp. 327-328. Critique of the "natural increase and migration method", stressing inaccuracy of migration component. Jacob S. Siegel, Henry S. Shryock, Jr., and Benjamin Greenberg, "Accuracy of Postcensal Estimates of Population for States and Cities," American Sociological Review , vol. 19j no, h, August, 195U, pp. I1UO-UU6. Test of seven methods. Robert C, Schraitt and ^^^-.Ibert H. Crosetti, "Accuracy of the Ratio-Correlation Method for Estimating Postcensal Population," L'^ ud Economics , vol. 30, no, 3, August, I95I4, pp. 279^^1. Description and test of "ratio- correlation method", find comparison with three alter- native techniques, H. Silock, "Precision in Population Estimates," Population Studies , vol. 8, no. 2, November, 195^4 j pp. 1U0-1U7; J, R. L. Schneider, "Note on the Accuracy of Local Population Estimates," ibid., pp. lU8-l50; H. Silock, "Note on Mr. Schneider's -iH^lysis," ibid., p. l5l. Description and evaluation of methods used for post- censal estimates in England and Wales. Robert C. Schmitt, ".'. Method of Estimating the Population of Cities," American J ou rnal of Public Health , vol, hii, no. 11, November, 195U, pp. lii26-lU27. An application of the "ratio-correlation method". Hugh H, Brown, "A Technique for Estimating the Population of Counties," Journal of the iuneri ca n Statistical Associa- tion , vol. 50, no. 270, June, 1955, pp. 323-3U3. A re- finement of the "censai ratio method". U, S, Bureau of the Census, "Illustrative Example of a Method of Estimating the Current Population of Subdivisions of 1/ the United States," Current Population Reports , Series P-25, No, 133, March 16, 1956. Detailed procedures for applying the "migration and natural increase" method. National Office of Vital Statistics, "Progress in Development of Fertility Statistics and Population Estimates," Vital Statistics-Special Iteports, Sel e cted Studies , vol, 39, no, y. May lU, 1956, pp. h32-liUT. A review of recent research and recommendations for the future. ir ,;•■:/ i.-yjiXd.' xOij i.. ■■•■:: ni-'^-f^ •'? '^f ■ ,-'^^ v' ■'Z>'T?.-: Li. iCi^l -n .H (|r. ft*-.! ;r.-fo-' li •-*.>,« t^-. K.-..-<,+ .i*» . " --frpirl.f T" CPL Exchange Bibliography 11 Beverly Duncan, "Illinois Population from 1950 to 1955," Health Statistics Bullet in, State oi Illinois. Depart- ment of Public Htalth, Bureau of Statistics, Special Release No. 23, September 1956. Appendix, "Estimating Procedures", describes the "composite technique" developed by Duncan and Bogue. Carl M. Frisen, R eport to th e League of California Cities on a Test of Population Estimating Techniques Applied to Selected California Cities . /Sacramento;/ California Department of Finance, Budget Division, Financial Re- search Section, March 1957. Description and testing of "vital rates method", "component method I", component method II", and "dvjelling unit method". Henry S, Shryock, Jr. , "Developm.ent of Postcensal Population Estimates for Local i.reas," Regional Income , Vol. 21 in Studies in Income and Wealth, Princeton University Press, 1957. A review of recent research. Henry S. Shryock, Jr., "Jacob S. Siegel, and Benjamin Greenberg, Current Research on Popul::.tion Estimates for States and Local ;vreas , paper read at annual meeting of the Population Association of ijnerican at Philadelphia, May U, 1957. Summary of recent v;ork, particularly at the Bureau of the Census. Census Tracts Industrial Areas Study, Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, P opulation Distribution - Spatial and Temporal; !i Study of Daytime-Nighttime Differentials in the Proportional Distribution of the Total Population of Selected Urban Area s. Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina, September, 1952. Hourly changes in the distribution of population within five urban areas. Robert C. Schmitt, "Estimating Current Populations of Census Tracts," Sociology and Social Research , vol. 37, no. 1, September-October, 1952, pp. 12-15. Description and test of two methods of making postcensal estimates of the residential ("nighttime") population of small areas. Federal Civil Defense .administration, "Method of Estimating Day Population (Based on a procedure developed by the Bureau of the Census)," Civil Defense Urban Analysis . Washington: Goverament Printing Office, July, 1953, pp. 78-81. Suggested procedure for making daytime population estimates from U. S. Census data and sources available locally. d"n.iiJCuiiot "ill