CD bD H fH cd cd CO 1 1 EH H £ cd EH ON O o\ UN CO CO CO rH H H OJ CO OJ H -3- H H OJ OJ H CO oo t— co OJ H t— CO H H |co on ON o H OJ ON o H OJ O CO 9 OJ H H CO no H OJ 21 OJ VO CO ro H OJ co OJ H I u •H CO cd is ft CL) bD-P cd cd P -P o CD -p H cu O o •P w H oo LiA OJ H H -* H OJ vo OJ OJ oo oo H H ^t H OJ H OJ OJ OJ OJ H H OJ OJ OJ OJ OO LiA I OJ I J" H H OJ 004" H O + OJ I 00 H H OJ H t^-00 + H OJ OJ I OJ 00 CO OO OJ OJ OJ H ON 0\ + H OJ A -4- oo -d" ON -dr ON OJ OJ pt OJ oo H LT\_=|- LfACO I OJ CO H H CO H OJ OJ I CO CO OO OJ Pt -d" oo H CO CO OJ OJ oo (H UA UA OJ OJ OJ 5 cu cu CJ § £j C"^ h) l-D UA OJ OJ o t— <-;■> H CM OJ t— OAH H OJ ON CO (AH rH OJ ON H CO |00 H t-00 O OJ OJ OJ CO|CO UA UA UA H oo OJ OJ OJ-3- -3- H oo OJ CO OJ OJ OJ OJ H M3 co <& •H CO cu cu CO CU CO n bO cd U CD P H w P P co CD -H cd ,o p a r-\ U cu •H cd o ures July rice P^ P O bD ^ 0) P (H 3 H cp cd ft Jh co >> ?H .£ OJ p OO cu o -p ft cu h> P P to 08 o •H cp o P ch bD p o fn O cu U d cd cu t-D -H ft ■8 ft p >> ^h bD P" > cd H cp H CO H >? ° cu pf Jh H H 5 CO ■p -^ ^> (U cu u O CD cu ha < EH CO W ft CO : ! o s « -65- H ^O On CO CVJ fr- H OO LTN fr- |oo co fr— oo CO OJ fr- fr- t- co » o o OO LTN CTN H ON -4" OJ H H OO LTN fr- k- oo h- ko LTN^O CO LTN I H oo J- co H LT\ OO OO fr-VO |CO LTN ON OJ CO|00 LTN oo H uavo LTN OO -4 oo oo OJ ON H H [-4 oo oo c6 00 00 -4 P? LTN fr— LTN LTN H rH H OO fr- CO H LTN fr— OO H ON OJ H H OJ O CM -4" CO OO LTN H OO fr- CO ON ON H rH H co fr- oo oo I CO H J- .4- OJ OJ H oo h H ON fr— H H OJ OJ H + O OJ CO CO CO 00 H LTN H H~ ON OJ fr- H C?\ON LTN fr— H H O OJ I -4" H fr- O O OJ OJ fr— ON O H OJ UN H *o LTN ON H -* OJ OO H fr— LTN fr- ^4" H OJ fr- -4- -4 OO oo fr- fr- fr- fr- o OO 0- OO OO O fr- oo oo VO fr- OJ -4- OJ -4- H H OJ OJ H -4- H H-4" OJ OJ CVI ^O LT\kX)VO OJ OJ I OJ ON H OJ OJ H H LTN CO CO ON H H oo H LTN LTN ON H CO OJ OO H CO UN VO oo CO CO OJ fr- oo oo H OJ -o egvo vo vo OJ ON + LT\ oo t- H SO OJ OO H fr- oo H LTNVO CO OO CO 00 oo OO OJ O H OJ 00 oo H ON H 00 CO OO LTN OOVO O O OJ OJ 14- H OO fr— I ON L4- OO OO oo OO OJ ON OJ J-L4- H oo H LTN OO 00 ON H H CO w •H co cq OJ p M •P I'D CD O •H Ph CD t>D-P CD (D CD ^ > cd < EH 1 J o w (D B In •H Hh a ^ CO p> CD bO Ih cd •p «H O CO CO oo 3 & r? id cd CD ISl •H H cd cd O 0) ■H U u Fk CD o CD bO cd o CO O •P sd H P P 3 CD CD hD S « CO •H CO cd co cd cd p 0) H sd o :=! cd -h -p i-D u 2 ft !+H CD bD P ,a cd CD O U W Jh CD ^h cd > cd S < EH LTN CO 0) CO o !4 CD P co P co \B o ch H O O p CD bO cd fn ^ CD P H (1) ?} CO pq Ph P •H O oo OJ LTN <+H O a r-l ^H P< H co H P co CD CD -H CO S s OO OJ r? & TH CD CD N bD cd 3 cd o CD CD P O ^1 CO ■H ^ CD O ftOP •H LTN ^H id H P P P CD CD h> a « -4- H co CD H •a EH X •H id CD CD O o -66- Again, the decision about whether to accept the forward price is a speculative one . The opportunity to forward price is always present . Whether it should be accepted or not depends upon whether the person holding the grain thinks that the level of price, as measured by the distant futures, is going to go up or not. If the futures prices do subsequently go up, he will regret having priced forward. If they go down, he will profit by selling. The figures for "profit or loss" in Table h indicate whether it turned out to be a good idea to price forward or simply to hold cash grain for later sale. Between them, Tables 3 and k show 48 transactions in futures during the first six of the years. There were 25 profits, 22 losses, and one break-even, meaning that the price went down 25 times, up 22, and did not change once. The average size of the profits was 11 3/k cents, and the average of the losses was 9 l/4 cents. On average it was more profitable to be short than long, but this is not a meaningful average. It is too near even to be ascribed to anything other than chance. In contemplating the question of a forward sale, a farmer must look at the price of the distant future, calculate what it means in terms of the price at his local elevator during the month of maturity of the futures contract, and then decide whether or not he wants to be long at that price . Let us review such a decision: On October 3> 19^1, the cash price of soybeans was $2.25 and the July futures price was $2.53 l/^« Assuming a normal basis of seven cents, the forward price was $2.46 l/4. The government support price $2.42, including all possible assistance and quality premiums. The crop was obviously larger than would be used up. The policy of the government was to sell any soybeans that it took over at a price equivalent to $2.47 l/2 to farmers. The question that the farmer should have asked himself was: "Do I want to be long soybeans that are now priced at $2.46 l/4 for delivery next July l?"--not "Do I want to be long soybeans at $2.25?" The problem was to ask the right question. Table 4 includes a section on storage for each of the grains . It shows the harvest price, the net price realized by forward pricing through the use of futures contract sales, and the returns to storage. The return to storage is the amount of increase in the cash price in relation to the futures price. These same values can be seen visually in the basis charts that we reviewed earlier. We noted from our charts that the prices of cash grains tend to go up seasonally. These increases are the net values of two kinds of change: payment for storage and price level. In the long run the change in the price level aver- ages out to zero, and only the payment for storage remains. The size of the payments for storage vary substantially from year to year. The price of storage is a competitive market price that depends on the sup- ply of and demand for storage space . The importance of the concept of storage is that farmers can profitably continue to use storage space even though they think that the price will decline. Suppose that at harvest or shortly after a farmer looks at the existing price and decides that this is a good time to sell — that the price is more likely to go down -67- than up. If he does sell, his existing storage space will remain empty, with no return until the next harvest. If he does not use futures, he must be long to obtain a return from the use of storage. If he does use futures to price ahead, he can get a storage return without being vulnerable to a price decline; that is, he can have his cake and eat it too. The use of futures to price stored grain ahead offers farmers an oppor- tunity to change their minds that is not possible when they sell cash grain. The sale and delivery of cash grain is quite final. Once a farmer sells and delivers, he is out of the game. If he is pricing forward via futures, he can get back in at any time that, in his judgment, he should. Two examples illustrate this point: During the i960 harvest a selling price of $2.00 for soybeans appeared to be rea- sonable to many people. The crop was large, and demand did not appear vigorous. During October and November several bullish things happened. Each successive estimate of the size of the crop was smaller. Export demand for soybeans was vigorous. The government became quite active in exporting surplus oil. In early December news of a Chinese drought meant that China would not compete with U. S. soybean exports. That did it! A $2.00 sale no longer looked good. If a farmer had sold at $2.00, he was through. Had he sold July futures on October 3 at $2.24 l/h, he could have bought them back and been long the stored crop. He could have done so as late as December 19 at as low as $2.2^. For a second example we will take corn in the fall of 1961. As we have seen, the target price was $1.14 l/8 on October 17 . This price looked good because of the prospect of large government sales . By the end of February the July futures had declined to $1.12. Disregarding futures profits already accrued, the target price was then $1.04. In view of the large amount of corn moving into the support structure, this did not look like a good sale. It was a price at which most farmers preferred to be long. Farmers who had sold July futures against stored corn on October 17 could take a 10-cent profit and again be long stored corn. In Tables 3 and k we adhered rigidly to pricing forward at planting and harvest. The opportunity offered farmers is by no means so rigid. By use of fu- tures, farmers can decide to fix or unfix the price for forward delivery at any time that their speculative judgment tells them to do so. Table 5 combines the operations shown in Tables 3 and h and introduces flexibility in the timing of operations . It illustrates a system of pricing for- ward at planting time for delivery after the crop has been produced and stored for six to nine months . The procedure for corn was (l) to sell December futures at planting time; (2) to buy December and sell July, after trading starts, for delivery the following July (about August l) whenever a premium of 10 cents for the July can be obtained or on November 1^, whichever occurs first; and (3) to sell cash and buy July fu- tures when the cash price is within eight cents of the July futures price, but not later than July 3- The dates of execution of the switch from December to July and the closing of the transactions are shown in the table. The normal spread of 10 cents was established by examining the data in appendix Table 1. The target prices were a net of two cents over the December futures (plus 10 minus" 8) for delivery upwards of lh months forward. -68- ON u CD CD o 14 U PO itn ON [ ON NO ITN 0> CO CO CO ITN + O OJ CJ H U"N OJ OJ H O OJ rH -d" -d" -d" oo + O CJ OO OJ H oo O H OJ + ITN OJ H OJ H -d" + LTN OJ OJ CO rH + OJ OJ -d- CO rH -d- -d- CD CO u P -p P Cm CD O •H (4 P. < ) M (U "I a> o cd O OJ •H C? 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( > <: h CVJ !> ON !S OJ + |00 00 t— ITS VO CO ON o VO ON -d- m en GO H ^ltn 13 OJ H COfcO • LT\ p a; on CO i t - I On CO rH + OJ _d H m VO -d CO Ox LfN OJ co H LTN H cd co S H -d- m UN t>- • ON -d- ON\ on Oct. 200 m H • On H + on rn X) H cd - oo rH CO OJ OJ VO LTN On CO OJ LTN\ H H vo Jf ° h> OJ OO OJ LTN H co On rH C--d- i H OJ O -d- H t-d rn crj rn »"D OJ OJ H OJ OJ i OJ CO -d LTN H o vo On LTN LTN CO en en «H OJ _d m -H O + OJ d vo CO _d- u-N rn co OJ o OJ o to rn 3 CO I-;, 0) b u p a» -p d 1) o d rjj J: (L) (U <+H d >>rd TJ r* 3 LT\ .d o rH rH o CO CO rH >> o 1-3 -H > o rH (1- 03 •H to cd rH fjj ;• (i) d ,; d co rd 0) h> rH 2 rH +3 O pi 10 to o > O H 5 rH CD m c^ co P cu bD rH cd -p o co CO o rH p d -71- For soybeans the procedure was (l) to sell November futures at planting time; (2) to switch to July at a 12-cent premium, but not later than October 31 > and (3) to close the transaction on a seven-cent basis, but not later than July 2. The target prices were a net of five cents over the November futures (plus 12 minus 7) • For oats the procedure was to (l) sell July futures at planting time; (2) switch to March at a five-cent premium, but not later than June 27; and (3) close out the transaction at a basis of 5 l/2 cents, but not later than January 3- The reasons for closing out so early were discussed in the section on basis be- havior. Target prices were a net of l/2 cent under the July future. For wheat the procedure was to (l) sell July futures on January 10; (2) switch to the subsequent March contract at a premium of 10 cents, but not later than July 5; and (3) close out the transaction at a basis of 12 under, but not later than January 30. The target prices were not always precisely realized. They sometimes fell short because spreads did not get as wide as the target spreads and because the basis did not always get as narrow as the target basis. They were sometimes exceeded because the actual spreads were wider than the target spreads when trad- ing in the subsequent futures started or because overnight basis changes were rapid. Target prices would have been slightly more accurately realized if daily instead of weekly prices had been used. For corn, soybeans, and oats, the misses of the target prices were small. Wheat basis and spreads are less regular; hence the misses of target tend to be larger . It should again be emphasized that the profits and losses from the fu- tures transactions tend to average out to zero. The use of futures in a routine way, such as is illustrated in Table 5 , does not in the long run add to or sub- tract from the realized price of grain. Futures markets are a tool for pricing forward when a farmer's best speculative judgment tells him it is time to fix the price of grain. To fix the cost of feed without taking immediate delivery . Livestock feeders are subject to several kinds of uncertainty. In addition to production uncertainties, there are market uncertainties with regard to the selling price of the livestock and the cost of feed. Futures markets can have usefulness in fixing the cost of feed. As a livestock feeder starts a feeding program, he commits himself to the use of feed. The feed that he does not have on hand he must subsequently buy. He is short a requirement of feed. If at the outset of the program he buys a suffi- cient amount of feed to last the entire feeding season, he can nail down one more cost item and thus reduce his total uncertainty. The feeding season is usually regarded as from fall to fall. Thus we are talking about buying feed in the fall of the year. In the main we are talking about buying corn. -72- Producers who do not have a sufficient amount of storage space or who do not wish to tie up their money in corn inventory can fix the cost of corn by buying futures. They are short cash corn for feeding requirements. They there- fore buy corn futures in an amount equal to their actual feed requirements . As space is available and they acquire cash corn, they sell the corn futures. Profits made on the futures transactions are subtracted from the price paid for the cash corn to get the net cost of feed. Similarly, losses taken on the futures transaction are added to the price of the cash corn to get the net cost of feed. If cash and futures prices moved up and down precisely together, the price of the feed corn could be fixed at the price existing when the futures transaction was initiated. To illustrate let us suppose that a feeder observes that the price of cash corn at his local elevator is $-95 • He likes this price and wishes to fix it for the supplemental feed corn that he will eventually buy. He buys futures at, say, $1.10, or 15 cents over the cash. Some months later when he needs the cash corn he pays $1.05. If the cash and futures prices have moved up the same amount, he will sell his futures contract for $1.20, realizing a 10- cent profit. He subtracts this cost from the $1.05 that he paid for cash corn, for a net cost (ignoring futures commission charges) of $.95 • However, as we have seen, cash and futures do not move up and down to- gether . The cash gains in relation to the futures . Increases in the futures will not offset the increase in the cash price. This increase in cash in relation to the futures is equal to the going market price for storage. In effect, the feeder pays someone to store the corn that he has bought until he needs it. In fact, someone is storing the corn for him, and he should reasonably be expected to pay for this service. In Table 6 we have set up an exercise in fixing corn prices by buying July futures. We assumed that the farmer needed to purchase about one-half year's supply of corn and that space would be available on the farm by April 1. Mid- November was selected as the most favorable time to initiate the transaction. The results were computed for the seven years 1955 to 1961. In each of the seven years the net cost of the feed corn was higher than the harvest price; that is, the cash always gained in relation to the futures. The amount of this gain is shown on the line "payment for storage." It averaged 11 l/k cents during the period. The experience here was that h l/2 months' storage cosi an average of 11 l/h cents, which is a high monthly n . It probably overstate? the long-term rate because of the very large basis gain in 1957 to 1958. In those years in which there was a profit in futures, the net cost of feed corn was reduced; and in those years in which there was a loss, the net cost of feed corn was increased. There were losses in four years and profits in three. The average size of the losses was greater than that of the profits. This does not prove that farmers should not price feed corn ahead by buying futures . The period is too short to provide a reliable average. In the long run, profits and losses should be equal if the same transactions are made at the same time each year. -73- CO P< O u o H VO I ITN UA ON H O O -d CD CD Fw «H o P co o a CD Xi p x •H Ph O -P co CD P O co CD CO cd o vo CD H & o o po LTN ON ho LT\ On H CO OJ CO OJ CO O ON ad IPs H i VO o CO _d- IT\ H LTN OJ H H CO OJ OO LTN CO • ON o H CO * ON CO CO O H OJ OJ H H H H + H CO t— o en OJ OJ H H !co oj m oj + H rH o CO CO O CO CO OO oo t— OJ OJ OJ H H UNOOCO :-1 CO CO CO oo _d OO H H oo LTNVO rH H i H H oo H oo H |CO - I ; LTN CO CO t- OO H ON On ON CO ITS ON OO OJ CO oo CO oo -d- oo NO H CO t— O rH CO oo H CO oo On CO t- H J- -d- -d" ^H H LTN C— OJ ON t— LTN OJ CO . OO-d H 1 H O H rH ^ H H + rH H rH O P cd > CD H £ 0) £h O CD H O W) cd CO cd o CO CD t3 ^ O CD ^ \, CD ^j p COHl CD O p rH P P CO £ > U o >H O £l P •H •H ^P CO CO ^l P OJ u Cd O Ph fl Ph h> -h o o 52 H >>H O J>sP 43 CO & •H rH p CD Jh pq cn Ph P CD cd cd Ph •H PQ S o Ph <* 3 CD -d- -d- CO H H JO !h h "r4 cd OJ OJ CD CD ■in H ■§ g CD -H •H CD cd > U ^ > Ph O Ph Ph O fe < < |25 to -7*- There are benefits from pricing feed corn ahead even though in the long run it only breaks even. It is a method by which the approximate cost of feed can be established. The knowledge of cost is useful in planning feeding operations. Pricing feed corn ahead reduces the total risk involved in feeding operations. It is clear that the purchase of corn futures does not assure that the cost of corn will be the current price. It will be higher than the current price by the amount of basis gain. The problem, then, is to understand what the current futures prices mean in terms of the ultimate net cost of corn. The feeder should subtract the basis that he expects to exist at the time he wishes to buy and take delivery of cash corn from the current corn futures price . If he wishes to buy and take delivery of cash corn on April 2 and expects a basis of 13 under the July at that time, and the current price of July futures is $1.25, he should reckon his net cost at $1.12 ($1.25 minus 13). This becomes his target price. The bottom line in Table 6 shows the basis (cash at local elevators to July futures) on April 2 of each of the seven years. The average was 13 3/^ cents, and there was a substan- tial variation in this average. The amount that the April 2 basis varies is the amount of uncertainty that exists about the net cost of feed corn. What should a farmer do? He should reckon his approximate net cost and then decide whether he wishes to fix that price or wait until a later time to buy. To speculate in the price of a crop that has been produced but for which storage is not available . Farmers sometimes wish to delay the pricing of grain past the time they can hold cash grain on farms . They can do so by selling cash grain and replacing it with an equal amount of grain futures. This is speculation. They are long. If the price goes up, they will make money. If it goes down, they will lose money. Such speculation is an integral part of an ordinary farm busi- ness. Speculation in futures is neither more nor less a part of the farm business than maintaining a long position in cash grain so long as it replaces a cash-grain speculation that formerly existed . Farmers often ask if they can sell cash grain at harvest and replace it with futures to take advantage of the seasonal rise in prices without incurring the costs of storage. This cannot be done. As we have seen, there is no regular seasonal pattern in grain futures prices, and cash prices increase in relation to futures prices so that whoever is long futures does, in effect, pay storage. Table 7 shows the results of working out a repetitive system of replac- ing cash grain with futures at harvest and selling late in the season. The ending dates for corn and soybeans were placed just before the beginning of the delivery month. Ending dates for oats and wheat were placed in January because of the tend- ency noted earlier to top out seasonally at that time . Whether the net price was increased or decreased can be quickly seen from the line "profit and loss" for each grain. It should be noted that the futures transactions are precisely opposite to those shown in Table k when grains were priced for deferred delivery. It was pretty much of a stand-off for corn. The price went down in three of the first six years . The average size of the decreases was slightly larger than that of the increases . -75- 00 H UA CVJ onoj ua CVJ CVJ co 30 oo CO CO CO -=1- -4 J- CO r>- t^H t- UA OO H oo H oo CVJ CO CVJ VO t- C— O UA 1 UA UA OA t— VO novo CVJ 00 o o H CVJ CVJ 4- co i t>- H t— CO UA 00 H H o o CA co co oo t^- -4- o- cvj CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ CO •-{ r-\ H H oo 4-CA O O CVJ I OO O H H H -4 -4 0-4- H O CVJVO CVJ CVJ CVJ t- t— -4- t>- t- 00 OO lAd + CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ H H H -4 LTN VO t— vo On CVJ I UA CVJ CVJ t- UACO UA CVJ -4 -4 H oo oo I— VO r-j H H CVJ CVJ rH CVJ -4 H oo U~\ CVJ oo oo H Ch (7\ H + H H o\ UA ON H 3 i> o rH o CO UA ON UA On CVJ CO H H -4- t--VO CVJ IAOVO OACV|CVj CVJ ko oo OO UA H H UA oo oo H H OJ no -4 I CO CO oo H rH CVJ CO UACO I OA O H rH CVJ CVJ CVJ H~H H UA O CO t-CO -4 O H CVJ CVJ rH 00 oo H H t--4 H ON CVJ H H CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ H H ON UA-4 o> cvj cvi H CVJ CVJ co ko co t--4 -4 O no CVJ CVJ CV) CVJ H r— 00 oo_4 H co 1 rH -4 OVO O CVJ CVJ 1 CVJ H H 00 ' 2 t— OA t— H H CVJ I OO 00 ON t— ON H UA i ov Hoi rH CVJ CO CO OO H CO O VO UA t— t— 14- -4 oo oo co cvj ko co H H oo o ia4 00 UA t^-VO -=1- OO H UA OO oo oo UA C— VO UA OO I -4 30 CO UA OO OAOO I -4 I -4 00 UA OO CVJ 0O-4 + VO t>- I co CVJ UA H t^-oo co UA I CO OO UA UA CVJ oo H VD H co oo CVJ CVJ CVJ CO t^ oo H~H H oo OA On CVJ 0- on O H H CVJ CVJ H UA OO t— OA H H _4 oo ko oo OO UA OA OOb- lAChCh H rH H -4 -4 H oo CVJ ON t- Chrlrl H CV) CVJ t- t- I OO OO H UA OO CVJ mo4 CO CM H H CVJ CVJ 1 CVJ -4 H H H H H O 1 ON H UA UA CVJ O H H CVJ •o UA ON H CVJ CO OOVO OA H -4 CVJ H H H |0O CO ua t— oo co O VO O OO OA H OA CVJ CVJ 21 -4- CO rH UA UA b- OO H_4 OO CVJ CVJ CVJ CO CO CO OO -4 -4 UA OO UA UA 00 oo OO H H O I CVJ CVJ O H CVJ CVJ rH CVJ oo t- t- VO t- t- O oo VO I -4 oo oo o -4 0- H CVJ CVJ H H UA-4 H COH4 H CVJ CVJ CVJ H >o CVJ CVJ H + CVJ I UA OOVO CVJ H rH CVJ UA UA OA CVJ CVJ H^H" VO VO ON O ooj- H H rH CVJ CVJ CVJ _=t- 4- -4- OJ _=h _=*- CVJ CO DO oo CVJ 00 CVJ H ^H~ ■ H oo oo H H H H H oo oo H rH oo H OO OA ?3 -4 -4 H UA UA CVJ CVJ -4 ON CVJ J- ON CVJ CVJ CVJ UACO UA t— + CVJ -4- VO UA CO H CVJ OOCO VO UAVO VO CVJ rH 1 UA ON oovo UA CVJ 00 OO H OO UA UA OOVO CO o o H CVJ CVJ 14- -4 H oo oooo + oo I - ! -4 CO H UA t^-CO OA OA CO OJ + 3 to a v co CU P CO +3 CO ^r^ Si! 0) CO fP CO 0) CJ •H p< ■p CI) (D O •H Pi ^J U -H CO O CO crj +3 crj o rap UA OJ J to g 3 o 3 •-3 O r-3 CO co a> OJ H H p co P -P to -R 3 o 3 ? rH d) CO S, rH O O CTJ r£f d -H O 3 r-j -P rH H >>Ih o p OJ P > o o h3 03 OO hD t"3 hD UA UA -76- The cash price the farmer would have received if he had held cash corn in store to June 25 is shown. The net price he actually received was subtracted from this cash price. The difference is the amount that he paid, in effect, for storage. These were substantial amounts, generally more than covering the full cost of on-farm storage. It should be noted that these are the same amounts shown in Table k. But this is not all of the loss that should be met in storing corn. The prices shown are for No. 2 yellow. The corn delivered at harvest was subject to moisture discounts. Part of the discount exists because the market does not pay for water, but part of it is an actual discount to cover the cost of drying corn down to storable moisture .±J Two things are clear: (l) it pays to hold corn past harvest when space is available, either as a long cash position or as a price forward via a sale of futures, and (2) it does not pay to routinely replace cash with futures. When storage space is not available, it sometimes pays to replace cash with futures . Selecting the years to do so is a matter of speculating in the price of corn. And farmers are fairly skilled at this . The problem is to figure out the cash farm price at which the farmer is actually going long when he buys the July future. In the fall of 1959> with the cash price at 9*+ cents and the government loan available to all producers at $1.06, corn seemed a cinch to go up. It did go up 1^- cents a bushel, but July futures went down 1 3/8 cents. The cash price increased 15 3/8 cents in relation to the July futures price . Thus the buyer of July contracts actually went long cash at $1.09 3/8. Knowing this, few farmers would have re- placed cash with futures . How does a farmer know at what price he is going long? The answer is a matter of anticipating basis. The June 25 basis is shown in Table J. We earlier established a "normal" basis for June 25 of eight cents under the July. Thus on October 17, 1959 > the farmer should have said to himself, "If I subtract eight cents from $1.17 l/2, I find that I am going long cash corn as of next summer at a cash price of $1.09 l/2. The cash price must go up to $1.09 l/2 before I make any profit. Do I think the price is going higher than $1.09 l/2?" The same conclusions are apparent with regard to soybeans, oats, and wheat. In the long run the replacement of cash with futures is a break-even propo- sition. To successfully use futures markets in this way requires a better-than- average job of speculation. A rather large payment for storage must, in effect, be made when cash is replaced by futures. While variable, ending basis can be effectively used to determine the cash-grain price represented by the futures price. The data for Table 7 are included in Appendix Tables 1 to h and are shown visually in the price and basis charts. Some common pitfalls in futures trading . There are several ways in which farmers (and others) can go wrong in their futures trading operations . There is uncertainty in the outcome because of variability in basis. This is to be expected, and a trade that fails to materialize as expected because of an unusual basis be- havior should not be scored as an error. ij For a full discussion of discounts, see University of Illinois Circular 833 • -77- The first type of error is improper calculation of basis—the failure to add the right normal basis to or subtract it from the right future. The exer- cises performed in the various tables should be repeated, using slightly different dates. Proposed transactions should be tested on previous years. The second type of error is to fail to relate the futures transactions to the farm business in the size and direction of position. The futures position must be as nearly as possible the same size as the cash position. Margin require- ments for trades in grain -futures are small. Farmers are tempted to take larger futures positions than the cash positions being offset without realizing the large losses and gains that can result from small price changes. The temptation is particularly great to replace cash sales with larger quantities of futures. The reasoning is that if it is desirable to replace 5,000 bushels of cash corn with 5,000 of futures, then it is even better to replace it with 25,000. To do so is to leave the farm business and become a speculator. Positions in futures must be opposite cash position. If the farmer is trying to establish a price for deferred delivery of a growing or stored crop, he is long cash and therefore must be short futures. If he is long futures, he is increasing his risk and trading in futures in a way that is not related to the farm business. If he has need for additional feed supplies, he is short cash and should therefore be long futures. The third type or error is the failure to close out both the cash and the futures transaction simultaneously. Most people are reluctant to take a loss on futures. Suppose that a farmer is long the crop that he has in storage and short futures against it and the level of price goes up. He has made money on the cash and lost on the futures. The net of the change may be meeting his target price exactly, but when he sells cash he is tempted to stay short the futures in the hope that it will go back down so that he can retain his cash profits without having to offset part of them with futures losses . He is reluctant to admit that he made a mistake when he priced his cash grain forward instead of staying long. He must learn to live with his decisions in the same way that he does if he sells the actual cash grain too soon. When he prices a growing or stored crop forward by selling futures, he is working with basis and is no longer concerned with changes in the level of price. The fourth type of error is to trade in and out. We have described some situations in which farmers can wisely reverse positions taken in futures as they change their minds about the future course of prices . There is always the tempta- tion to overdo this reversal. Suppose that a farmer prices a growing crop forward by selling futures. The price goes down and even though he thinks it will finally go lower, he expects some short-term recovery. He is tempted to take a quick profit, expecting to sell again when the price recovers. If he does so, he is be- coming a short-term trader, something that most farmers are not qualified to do. One of the most difficult aspects of futures trading is to resist taking a quick profit . 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