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 i " 'Reprinted from The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social 
 t i Science, Philadelphia, July, 1915. 
 
 ( 7 ? 
 
 Publication No. 899. 
 
 “ TRADE POSSIBILITIES IN GERMANY AND AUSTRIA 
 By Isaac Wolf, Jr., 
 
 President of the American Association of Commerce and Trade, Berlin. 
 
 American business men as a class, whether they are doing busi¬ 
 ness in Germany or not, or whether they have in the past had any 
 German trade at all or not, should awaken to the fact that the 
 greatest chance for trade expansion is going to come to the United 
 States as a result of this war, and that this chance for trade ex¬ 
 pansion is with Germany and Austria. 
 
 Americans are talking a lot about the opportunities for trade 
 expansion with South America presented by the war. But there 
 is nothing heard of the far more important field afforded by Ger¬ 
 many and Austria. South America has a population of about 
 35,000,000. Germany and Austria have a combined population of 
 about 115,000,000. 
 
 The manufacturers of the United States should arouse them¬ 
 selves to the fact that the Teutonic allies are going to offer a 
 superb market for American goods in consequence of the war. 
 The goods which were hitherto imported from Great Britain and 
 her colonies, from France and from Russia, can in large measure, 
 be supplied hereafter by the manufacturers of the United States if 
 American business men will once understand that there is to be a 
 vast market presented in those countries. 
 
 The question is often asked, “What goods will sell well in Ger¬ 
 many?’ * In general any manufacture of first class quality will sell 
 - in Germany. When this war is over Germany will need almost all 
 kinds of goods and it will be good time to get into the German mar¬ 
 ket and we shall find Germany one of the best foreign markets. 
 In general, a firm going into the German market should have its 
 own special representative—this special representative will be found 
 to be the connecting line between producer and consumer. This 
 applies to doing business with most countries. The first requisite of 
 foreign trade is superiority of goods. There is no reason why 
 American textiles, especially hosiery and knit goods, in which 
 branches we have made great strides, should not compete with those 
 
 
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 The Annals of the American Academy 
 
 of German make. There will always be articles with which we can¬ 
 not compete, otherwise trade ceases to be reciprocal. The sale of 
 American footwear in Germany has increased about half a million 
 during the past year. Our tanning processes are said to be superior 
 to the German and we are also very careful to put good stock into 
 our footwear. American fur-trimmed clothing could be exported 
 with profit, as furs are cheaper with us — provided however, we 
 consult the tastes of our customers. In hides and leather, also 
 in woolen goods, we could compete. In manufactures of paper we 
 are in many respects ahead of Germany as to variety of good designs 
 and uses to which we put paper—these are finding a ready market 
 in Germany. Instead of importing made-up cotton goods from 
 Germany, we ought to export them and supply our own needs from 
 our own mills. American ready-made suits for men and boys are a 
 new article for Germany and are selling well at present in the de-_ 
 partment stores in Berlin, where also American collars, cuffs and 
 shirts are marketed. This is a branch that would not fail of a good 
 sale; to be sure we already have our goods there, but in small quanti¬ 
 ties only. A German collar sells for a quarter, so that there ought to 
 be a good profit. Other things that could be sold in such a store are 
 travelers’ requisites and every requisite for a gentleman’s outfit, and 
 American steel office furniture. Little attempt has been made to 
 sell office furniture, only one American firm, so far as I know, 
 having made an attempt. Our state department at Washington 
 has lately been in the habit of furnishing its offices abroad with this 
 kind of furniture, a practical advertisement if pointed out to visitors. 
 There are many other articles which would sell well in Germany. 
 
 During the few months I have been in the United States the 
 usual greeting I receive is, “Well, you are lucky to get away from 
 Germany just at this time.” I mention this as indicative of the 
 erroneous impression concerning present conditions in Germany. 
 I say erroneous—because if you were in the city of Berlin today, 
 you would not imagine that the country is engaged in one of the 
 most formidable wars Germany ever undertook. It is remarkable 
 to what extent normal conditions have been maintained in Berlin 
 since the beginning of hostilities. You see just as many able- 
 bodied men on the streets, you see just as many ladies doing their 
 shopping as ever, you will find the cafes and confectioners as fre¬ 
 quented as ever, only you will find the Germans quieter and more 
 
German and Austrian Trade Possibilities 
 
 3 
 
 subdued as a natural result of the terrible sacrifices almost every 
 family is making. 
 
 The retail stores, especially the great department stores, are 
 still doing a good business. Electric and other power cabs are 
 still running, although in reduced numbers owing to the lack of 
 chauffeurs. The auto omnibuses, however, are running regularly 
 on all lines. A small number of the wives of conductors on the 
 surface lines have been given the places of their husbands, who have 
 gone to the front. Factories, other than those for military needs, 
 are working on half-time, half-wages and half-force. Merchants are 
 meeting their liabilities as in times of peace and there is no morator¬ 
 ium. Everyone is trying his or her best to bridge over the business 
 situation. Those working for the army, in any capacity, are mak¬ 
 ing hay while the sun shines, and the average shoemaker, saddler 
 and petty tailor have for years not reaped such golden harvests as 
 at the present time. Latest statistics show that the improvement 
 of the labor question is making steady strides and the number of un¬ 
 employed is not as large as might be expected. Of course taking 
 5,000,000 men for the army lessens the number of mouths to be fed 
 at home. 
 
 The Industrial Situation 
 
 It is unnecessary to remark that industrial activity under¬ 
 went many limitations during the days of mobilization, but assumed 
 fairly normal shape after concentration of the military forces. 
 No slack was experienced by the industries connected with the 
 production of food products. The metal and clothing industries 
 are, on the whole, engaged to their full capacity. During the months 
 of September and October the following industries increased their 
 activity and output: the metal, chemical, textile, clothing, leather 
 goods and printing industries. 
 
 Prices of Foodstuffs 
 
 The harvests in Germany last fall were almost normal. The 
 yield of rye exceeded that of previous years by a million and a half 
 hundredweight, and rye forms the staple article of food. All the 
 crops were harvested expeditiously by aid of the pupils in the higher 
 classes of the schools and the seeding next spring will probably be 
 done by the same persons. 
 
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 The Annals of the American Academy 
 
 In October the federal council prescribed maximum prices for 
 wheat, to take effect November 4. The maximum price for home¬ 
 grown rye differs somewhat in the various provinces, but keeps 
 within the limit of between 209 and 237 marks per ton. The maxi¬ 
 mum price for home-grown wheat amounts to 40 marks more than 
 for rye. The object of these fixed maximum prices is to insure 
 steady provision of food for the population at normal prices. 
 
 In scrutinizing the future of American exports into Germany, 
 it can safely be said at the outset that soon after the war a tremen¬ 
 dous boom may be expected. Three conditions, however, govern 
 this desirable and hoped-for situation, viz.: 
 
 First, that the friendly political relations of old between Amer¬ 
 ica and Germany continue; 
 
 Second, that the same commercial relations continue, unharmed 
 on either side by prejudice or envy; 
 
 Third, that American exporters deal with their German ^cus¬ 
 tomers direct. 
 
 In regard to the first item, any sane person does not expect any¬ 
 thing but continuation of the old, never disturbed friendship be¬ 
 tween the two countries. 
 
 The second item calls for tolerance on the part of both countries, 
 and efforts in this direction, combined with intelligent study, in 
 order to widen the export possibilities, will surely lead to splendid 
 results. 
 
 The third item represents but natural results of the attitude of 
 the English government which now prohibits any commercial inter¬ 
 course with Germany. American exporters, who have given sales 
 privileges for continental Europe to business houses in England, 
 will in the future have to do their business with the representatives 
 in Germany direct.