336.1 R175L Robert Rantoul, Jr. Letter to Robert -Schuyler, Pres. of the ICRR, on the Value of the Public Lands of Ill. ILLINOIS HISTORICAL S.URYJEV: , C LETTER TO PRESIDENT OF THE ILLINOIS CENTRAL RAILROAD, ON THE YALUE OF THE PUBLIC LANDS i , OF ILLINOIS. BY ROBERT RANTOUL, JR., ONE OF THE DIRECTORS. BOSTON: PRESS OF DAMRELL & MOORE, 16 Devonshire Street. 1851. LETTER. BEVERLY, September 1st, 1851. SIR : In entering, at your request, into an inquiry as to the prospective value of lands in Illinois, I think it proper to examine the general con- siderations which will influence the settlement of that State, because it seems to me that by this course we may arrive at a result much more satisfactory and certain than by comparing the prices of land in particu- lar localities, or by collecting the opinions of individuals. The Illinois Central Railroad is to be the main artery of communication between vast sections of this continent, and its value depends upon the amount of intercourse between those sections, and upon the business of the popu- lation along the line. What this population is likely to number at any given date may be judged from facts positively and officially ascertained, so that the reader, if not satisfied with our conclusions, will have before him the means to form his own. The territory of the United States consists of four great natural divi- sions, two slopes toward the ocean on the east and west, and two val- -> fK leys or basins, one stretching from the centre of the continent easterly, d ^Q the other from the same centre southerly. The natural route of the largest travel to and from each of these divisions lies through the State of Illinois. The passage from the Basin of the Lakes and the St. Law- rence, an area of about one million of square miles, to the central and /? southern parts of the Valley of the Mississippi must necessarily be from the southern extremity of Lake Michigan through Illinois. The travel ' from the northern portion of the Atlantic slope, the nine North Eastern j States, having already more than eight and a half millions of inhabitants, must follow the same route to reach the same destination. The line of -P H 4 our road, continued to Mobile, or by steamboat down the river, links the Basin of the Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, so that all the trade and travel of that Basin to and from the West India Islands, Mexico, and Central America, and across the Gulf to the Pacific Coast of North and South America, naturally pass that way. Illinois therefore is not only acces- sible from all quarters, but on the line of the principal thoroughfares of the continent ; and when those thoroughfares are once opened for the cheapest and speediest travel and transportation through the whole length of her territory, all her resources must be at once revealed to the world : if her lands offer the strongest inducements to settlers, that fact must be almost immediately known, appreciated and acted upon. The States northwest of the Ohio are seven in number, five of them east, and two of them west of the Mississippi. Of these, the three older States, which are those bordering on the Ohio, are so far settled that the Government has alieady parted with more than five-sixths of the lands within their limits, while in the other four States the Govern- ment retains as yet more than two-thirds of the lands. The unsold lands in the three older of these States are distributed as follows : Ohio, containing 25,576,960 acres : Unsold 367,742 acres. Indiana, 21,637,760 " " 1,511,266 " Illinois, " 35,459,200 " " 11,449,471 " The three States " 82,673,920 " " 13,328,479 " The land unsold in Ohio and Indiana is less than would be required to furnish farms of the ordinary extent for one year's natural increase of the population of those States, allowing nothing for emigration. For all practical purposes, therefore, we may regard the public lands of those two States as exhausted, and those of Illinois come into competition only with the four younger States, as yet but sparsely settled, Michigan, Wis- consin, Iowa and Missouri. These last four States contain more than one hundred and forty-six millions of acres, of which more than ninety- eight millions remain to be disposed of by the General Government. [See Tables A and B] To determine the disposable value of land in Illinois, it will be con- venient to take as a criterion that of some other State more densely peo- pled, say for instance Ohio, and make that the basis of our reasoning. We are in no danger of being carried too far by this method, because we institute a comparison between the most fertile land in the world and that which is much less productive ; and between land bordering on a perfect railroad and having the best access to market, and the whole surface of Ohio, much of it not so accessible. It will be found also that the price of land continues to increase in a ratio much greater than the density of population. Massachusetts has about two and a half times as many inhabitants to a square mile as Ohio, but land as good as that of Ohio, and cultivated with as little cost and labor, is worth more than five times as much in Massachusetts as the official valuation in Ohio. What then is the present value of land in Ohio, for agricultural pur- poses, estimated at a rate low enough to form a safe basis for prudent calculations ? The official valuation of all the lands subject to taxation in Ohio, ex elusive of that included in towns, was 23,768,^35 acres estimated at $264,661,957, which gives an average of $11. 13^ per acre, for the year 1849. Towns are separately valued at a further sum of more than seventy millions of dollars. It is generally supposed that to this assessment for the purpose of taxation, at least one-third should be added to ascertain the true selling-, price ; if we add one-fourth only, it gives us $13.91^ as the real value in 1849, which at the present time, 1851, must be increased at least six per cent., giving $14.75 per acre. The more thoroughly this estimate is examined, the more undeniably will it appear that it is below the true value, yet to place our data be- yond the reach of cavil, let us admit the price per acre to be $12 only. A ready test to be applied to this price is to see what rate it would give in other States more settled, and also in those less settled, if the price rose in the ratio of the density of population. This rule would give per acre, for Mass. $33.00 ; Conn. $18.84 ; New York $16.00: Penn. $12.90; Ind. $7.20; Ken. $6.25; Mich. $1.71 ; Wis. $1.33 ; Iowa .92 ; Mo. $2.40. Those acquainted with these States, will at once pronounce these prices to be far below the value of land in each of them. Is the productive capacity of the land sufficient to yield a fair return on the investment ? Because if it be not, the price cannot be expected to rise higher than the rate which will give a rent equal to the average of other States. In the report of the Commissioner of Patents for 1849, page 232, it is stated that there are jive or six States in this Union in which " men can grow maize on common soil, place the crop in a crib at from six to ten cents a bushel, and pay a fair price for the labor." This can be done much cheaper in Central Illinois than in the average of these five or six States. Corn is often raised at or below five cents. 6 The produce of an acre is, at a low rate, fifty bushels say at 8 cents - $4.00 Hauling to railroad, . .50 Transportation 150 miles at 4 cents per ton, - 9.00 2 7ce nts per bushel, per acre, $13.50 If the price at Chicago should not go below 37 cents, an immense exportation may be depended upon. If delivered in Liverpool low enough to be used by British graziers for fatting cattle, the quantity re- quired for their consumption is almost beyond calculation. But this price, after so long a journey as 150 miles, gives a net profit of ten cents a bushel, or five dollars per acre, which is equal to an interest of twenty per cent, on an original investment of twenty-five dollars per acre. Suppose corn carried upon the railroad half this distance, or seventy- five miles. It may be brought great distances to the depot for this pur- pose, by means of plank roads, which will speedily be constructed. Fifty bushels, at 8 cents, cost - $4.00 Conveyance to depot, say - 1.00 Transportation 75 miles, 4.50 Cost delivered at the Lake, - $9.50 Value at the Lake, - 37 cts. Cost, 19 Net profit per bushel, 18 cts. This would realize nine dollars profit, or twenty per cent, on an invest- ment of forty-five dollars per acre. If an article so bulky as corn cannot be profitably carried the whole length of the railroad, it is to be recollected that animal products can bear transportation three or four times as far as corn, and still pay a much smaller per centage on their cost. The freight of a barrel of pork three hundred miles will not exceed a dollar and fifty cents at the outset : and the rates of toll assumed are capable of very great reduc- tion, so soon as the business of the road requires the construction of a double track ; a contingency not far distant in the future. It is plain from these remarks that all the land within fifteen miles of the Central Railroad is intrinsically worth, from its power of produc- tion, not only as much as, but an average twice as high as that which we have assumed to be the selling price of Ohio lands. Such an aver- age might be realized, if the supply of such lands were not much greater than the demand for cultivation. It becomes then necessary to inquire how long will the supply exceed the demand, not for speculation, because that is too precarious and un- steady for our consideration, but the demand by actual settlers for culti- vation. We have official data by which this question can be answered, approximately, but as definitely and with as strong a probability of cor- rectness as any thing future can be known, which depends on the volun- tary action and separate judgment of multitudes of individual men. The quantity of land taken up by each occupant in the Western States differs, of course, with the density of population, and the price to which land has risen. In the State of Ohio, the land sold and granted averages less than thirteen acres per head for the whole popu- lation ; in Indiana it is twenty and one-third acres, and in Illinois twenty- eight acres per head. In the other four North Western States it slightly exceeds thirty acres. [See Table C.] The eleven millions of acres of land not yet taken up in Illinois would supply a population of a little more than four hundred thousand persons with twenty-eight acres each, the quantity thus far in Illinois. This increase to her population, at the ordinary rate, will acrue in six or seven years. If the land were divided in the same proportion as hi Indiana, it would be sufficient for about five hundred and sixty-five thou- sand persons. If divided as in Ohio, it would supply nine hundred and five thousand. But, unless the rate of increase should be checked, which there is no reason to apprehend, five hundred and sixty-five thousand persons will be added to the population of Illinois in eight years, and nine hundred and five thousand in twelve years. The ordinary increase of population, such as causes already existing have been sufficient to main- tain for the last fifty years, without the aid of artificial channels of inter- course, will be quite sufficient to exhaust, twelve years before your bonds fall due, the whole quantity of land owned by the Government in Illinois on the 30th of June, 1850. This quantity, however, is very far beyond that now remaining at the disposal of the United States, as I shall have occasion to show. If, without referring to the quantity of unsold land, we inquire simply how soon the tract through which the road is to pass will arrive at the average density of population of Ohio, we observe, that if the road be of the length generally anticipated, there will be included within fifteen miles of the line, about twenty thousand square miles of surface, having at present about three hundred thousand inhabitants. Seven hundred 8 thousand must therefore be added to reach an average of fifty to the mile. Suppose only two-thirds of the additional population of the State to settle within fifteen miles of the railroad, and still the requisite den- sity will be reached, at the rate of increase of Illinois for the last ten years, in thirteen years from the present date ; that is to say, about the 1st of September, 1864. The State would then contain, besides the million of inhabitants within fifteen miles of the Central Railroad, al- most an equal number occupying the remaining three-fifths of its terri- tory, at an average density of twenty-seven to the square mile, about the average already reached by the whole State of Indiana ; and the pub- lic lands would of course be exhausted as they already are in Ohio and Indiana. The lands in the possession of private holders might then be expected to bear prices compared to those of Ohio and Indiana, respec- tively, in the proportion of their fertility, and power of access to markets for their produce. These calculations all proceed upon the hypothesis that the rate of in- crease of population in Illinois is to continue the same for the next thir- teen years, that it has been since 1840. There are obvious reasons why a much more rapid progress might be counted on, if it were not wholly unnecessary to make out a stronger case than this establishes for us. During the last ten years Illinois has labored under a debt, of a mag- nitude absolutely overwhelming, when compared with her resources at the commencement of that period. She had then before her a very gloomy alternative. If she endeavored to meet even the interest of her obligations she would be crushed under the weight of an intolerable taxa- tion, from which her most able and enterprising citizens would have fled into other States. If she abandoned the effort in despair of the possi- bility of success, then she must suffer all the consequences of the total loss of credit consequent on her bankruptcy. In neither case did it seem to be probable that her public works could be made available towards the discharge of the debt incurred for them, or aid to develop the resources of the State. Why should an emigrant from the old world, or from the other States, with the broad valley of the Mississippi open before him where to choose, voluntarily assume a full share of these em- barrassments by becoming a citizen of Illinois ? The answer which emigrants have given to this question may be seen in the settlement of Wisconsin, which State, with a colder climate and a harder soil than Illinois, has added to her population more than eight hundred and eighty per cent, in the last ten years : a progress unprecedented in the history of the world, in any agricultural community. 9 Ten years ago Illinois, borne down with debt, had not only not a mile of railroad, or canal, or plank road, in operation within her borders, but no reasonable plan had been agreed upon by which she could hope to diminish her debt, discharge her interest, or acquire facilities of commu- nication. She has now her canal debt rapidly approaching towards ex- tinction, revenues sufficient in a very short time to discharge her whole interest without increasing the rate of taxation, one hundred miles of canal, and a still greater length of railroad, in highly profitable opera- tion, with plank roads in great numbers paying dividends large enough to insure the early construction of several thousand miles more. Not only so, but she has before her the certainty that she will be supplied with more than twelve hundred, perhaps it may be safely said, more than fifteen hundred miles of railroad in the next five or six years ; and chan- nels are already constructed to convey her products, transported to her borders on these railroads, through Michigan, Indiana, and the Eastern States, to the seaboard and abroad. If, paralyzed as she was for the last ten years, her growth was at about the same rate as that of Michigan, having less than half as dense a population, with her railroads and her lake borders and her steamboats ; about the same as that of Missouri with only two-thirds as dense a population, and with the Queen City of the Great River in her centre receiving the whole current of emigra- tion up the Mississippi ; about the same numerically as that of Wisconsin and Iowa together, these two starting with a hundred thousand square miles of land unoccupied, wholly unencumbered with debt and accessi- ble from the lake and from the river ; why should she not, in her present healthy condition, her limbs unshackled and her pathway free before her, advance, with the step of a giant refreshed, towards her natural position among the first in population, power, and wealth of the North American confederacy of States ? Even under all the disadvantages which have impeded the progress of Illinois during the last ten years, disadvantages whose effect it would not be easy to over-estimate, the growth of those sections of the State which can be easily reached from the northeast has been such as to afford an indication of what may be expected from the whole area when it is once made equally accessible. The two land districts of Chicago and Dixon, forming the northern section of the State, contain together 14,126 square miles, or about one-fourth of the land in the State. This northern section alone is accessible from Lake Michigan, and of course has received the whole benefit, in common with the southeastern part of Wisconsin, of the lines of steamboats from Buffalo and Detroit, and of 2 10 the travel over the Michigan Central Railroad. It had by the last census, two hundred and fifty-five thousand, eight hundred and seventy inhabitants, or eighteen to the square mile ; and is divided into twenty- four counties. If we take separately the northern belt across the whole breadth of the State we shall include in thirteen counties, every county within fifteen miles of which the Chicago and Galena Railroad route passes. These thirteen counties increased about two hundred and eighty per cent, in the last ten years in the number of their inhab- itants ; having, in 1840, six and one-half to a square mile, and in 1850, about twenty-five to the square mile. If we now take the belt directly south of this, including the eleven counties which constitute the remainder of the Chicago and Dixon land districts, we shall find that these are the counties accessible from the Lake thrc ugh the Illinois and Michigan Canal. These eleven counties increased in population one hundred and nine per cent, in the last ten years. They had, in 1840, five and one-third inhabitants to the square mile, while in 1850, they had a fraction over eleven to the square mile. The remaining seventy-five counties of the State, having no convenient access from the East for emigrants, and to the eastern markets for produce, have increased fifty-two and a half per cent, in ten years ; and while in 1840 they had nine and a half inhabitants to the square mile, or fifty per cent, more than the northern section, in 1850 they had but fourteen and a half to the square mile, or little more than half the aver- age density of the thirteen northern counties. All these particulars are more distinctly presented in the following table : Illinois. Sq. miles. Pop. 1840. Tosq.m. 1850. Tosq.m. In.pr.ct. 13 Counties, 7,200 46,992 6.52 178,417 24.78 279.6 11 " 6,926 37,057 5.35 77,393 11.17 109.0 24 " 14,126 84,049 5.95 255,810 18.10 204.3 75 " 41,279 392,134 9.50 599,574 14.50 52.9 99 " 55,405 475,183 8.59 855,384 15.04 79.2 The twenty-four counties, therefore, of the Chicago and Dixon land districts of Illinois exhibit, and enable us to measure the influence of Lake Michigan in opening a cheap highway to the vast territory upon its Western borders. This increase of two hundred and four per cent, in the population of an area larger than the States of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island together, has occurred during ten years, when the extraordinary and unprecedented prosperity of those Atlantic 11 States, whence emigration to the West has been generally derived, kept at home on the seaboard a population of about seven hundred thousand persons, who must otherwise, at the rate at which population advanced in those States during the next preceding decade of years, have become inhabitants of the Mississippi Valley, and for the most part, of the northern part of the Valley. [See Table D.] This increase of two hundred and four per cent, has occurred in the accessible section of Illi- nois, in ten years of financial embarrassment and State bankruptcy, most repelling to immigrant settlers ; and to know how far these circum- stances have depressed the growth of Northern Illinois, let us cross the border line into Wisconsin, and measure there the effect of the Lake, as a great avenue, upon the portion of Wisconsin open to its influence. If we draw a line across Wisconsin from Green Bay down the Neenah and Wisconsin rivers, to the Mississippi, we shall leave south and east of that line a space about equal to the Chicago and Dixon land districts, from which, as well as from the rest of the State, in 1840, Black Hawk and his warriors had been not long expelled. South and east of the dividing line are twenty counties ; north and west of that line are ten counties, not yet of easy access. The growth of the population in these two sections is as follows : Wisconsin. Square miles. Pop. 1840. To sq. mile. Pop. 1850. To tq. mile. Inc. per cent. 20 Counties, 14,054 24,670 1.77 278,535 19,97 1,029 10 " 39,870 6,275 .15 27,003 .67 330.3 30 53,924 30,945 .57 305,538 5.66 888.6 While therefore fourteen thousand miles of land south of the bound- ary between Illinois and Wisconsin, increased its population 280 per cent., the same quantity of similar land adjoining it, but north of that boundary, increased its population more than one thousand per cent. The fear of the State debt counterbalanced and outweighed the disad- vantages of a colder climate, and the greater expense of clearing wood- land, instead of simply breaking up prairie. The manner in which such a tide of immigration can build up a city may be seen in Milwaukie, one of the landing places for passengers by steamers round the Lakes from Buffalo; and second only to Chicago among the ports of the upper Lakes. I give a table of its population at periods of four years : Population of Milwaukie from 1838 to 1850. 1838 700 1846 9,655 1842 2,700 1850 20,061 12 The State debt of Illinois has ceased to cause alarm. It is obvious that the taxes provided for in the Constitution of the State, levied on her rapidly increasing property, would soon be sufficient to meet her lia- bilities. But it is certain that the opening of her great system of rail- roads -will accelerate the increased valuation of her property by many millions annually, while her share of the gross revenue of the Central Road will enable her soon after that road is opened, to begin rapidly to extinguish her debt. This obstacle being no longer formidable, the cen- tral and southern parts of Illinois are now ready for the full develop- ment of their natural advantages. The remainder of the State, with a warmer climate than that which already trebles its numbers in ten years, lessening the expense of shelter, fuel and clothing, has also a soil tillable with less labor, and yielding larger harvests, and, underlying many thousand miles of its area, one of the largest coal beds in the world, not too far from the surface, and in many parts of excellent quality. I say nothing of the metallic minerals of Northwestern or Southern Illinois, not because I undervalue them, but because I cannot extend this commu- nication to do justice to their merits ; and because in land for agricultural purposes alone, Illinois has wealth enough for an empire. Open a vent for her products, and her central and southern lands will be sought for as eagerly as those have been which already open on Lake Michigan. Difficult of access as are most of her lands, now remaining unsold, they are still sought for in much larger quantities than those of any other new State. The public land sold in the seven Northwestern States dur- ing the year ending June 30th, 1850, before the projection of the Cen- tral Eailroad began to influence sales in, Illinois, was distributed as fol- lows : Sales of land in the seven Northwestern States for the year ending June 30th, 1850, according to the Report of the Secretary of the In- terior, of the 3d of December, 1850. Ohio, - 34,677.25 acres. Michigan, - 48,675.03 acres. Indiana,- 120,998.93 " Wisconsin, - 162,098.87 " Illinois, - 275,119.48 " Iowa, - 112,832.75 " Missouri, - 227,000.89 " 430,795.66 " 550,607.54 " It will be seen from this table that more land is sold in proportion to their area in the three older States of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois, than in the four younger Northwestern States ; and almost six times as much 13 in proportion to the land remaining unsold. Almost two- thirds of the sales in the three older States were in Illinois ; and as this was the case before the passage of the law donating lands to the Central Railroad, September, 1850, it will be readily supposed that since that date the sales in that State have been much more rapid. Indeed, in a single district in Illinois, in which the sales for the year ending June 30th, 1850, were 18,528.42 acres, in the quarter ending June 30th, 1851, they were 43,661, or nine and a half times as much in proportion to the time as before the act of donation. This has happened while the land within fifteen miles of the railroad is reserved from sale. I have not yet obtained returns from all the districts, so that I am unable to make the comparison for the whole State. It may be interesting to inquire how the density of population, and sales of land, of different parts of the State, compare with each other, in order to judge how far these facts furnish evidence of the comparative value of the Company's lands. It must be borne in mind that these lands are situated mostly in the three districts of Dixon, Danville and Vandalia, and that these districts, being the least accessible in the State, have been, of course, the last to be settled. Railroad communication has not yet reached an acre of land in either of these districts. If there- fore the lands are rapidly taken up, and settlers are pouring into these districts, it is because of the intrinsic fertility of the soil, and the con- fidence, growing every day stronger, that communications will soon be opened. Illinois is divided into ten land districts. Of these, two, Chicago and Quincy, the former lying on Lake Michigan, and including the principal railroad, and the canal of the State, the latter lying between the Mis- sissippi and Illinois rivers, with almost every township in it within thirty miles of steamboat navigation, have, in the aggregate, more than eight millions of acres of land, of which one-tenth remains unsold. When it is considered that the lands unsold in these two districts are not quite sufficient to furnish farms, of the average Illinois size, for one year's in- crease of their population, it is plain that, in estimating the unsold lands which are to come into competition with those of the Company, we may omit the Chicago and Quincy districts entirely, without materially affect- ing the result. The three districts which include most of the Company's land, Dixon, Danville and Vandalia, have thirteen million eight hundred thousand acres of land, of which about one-half is unsold ; while the re- maining five districts have thirteen million four hundred thousand acres, of which about one-fourth part remains unsold. 14 The comparative density of the population of these sections, and their increase, with the number of acres in each, will appear in the following tables. DISTRIBUTION AND PROGRESS OF THE POPULATION OF ILLINOIS, CON- SIDERED BY LAND DISTRICTS, FROM 1840 TO 1850. Districts. Sq. miles. Acres. Pop. 1840. Tosq.m. Pop. 1850. Tosq.m. Quincy, 7,073 4,526,636.26 87,448 12.36 154,635 ^21.9 Chicago, 5,777 3,697,068.60 48,416 8.38 160,500 27.8 12,850 8,223,704.86 136,864 10.65 315,135 24.51 Dixon, 8,349 5 ,343,471 .73 35,633 4. 26 96,370 11. 56 Danville, 7,705 4 ,931,334 .79 27,932 3. 62 55 ,093 7. 15 Vandalia, 5,516 3 ,530,401 .00 22,632 4. 10 36 ,775 6. G7 21,570 13,805,207.52 86,197 4.00 188,238 8.72 Fiveother,20,985 13,410,287.62 253,122 12.00 352,011 16.76 Total, 55,405 35,439,200.00 476,183 8.59 855,384 15.44 RECAPITULATION. Pop. 1850. In.pr.ct. Pop. 1860. Atpr.ct. Tosq.m. Quincy and Chicago, - 315,135 130.26 724,810 130 56.4 Dixon, Danville and Vand., 188,238 118.38 414,123 120 19.2 Five other, 352,011 39.07 492,815 40 23.4 Total of Illinois, 855,384 79.63 1,631,748 90 29.4 This table shows that the districts in which the land is mostly sold have a density of population (24.51) almost three times as great as those in which the land is less than half sold (8.72) ; but that these thinly set- tled districts, with a population of about half the density of the other five districts, (16.76,) are increasing three times as rapidly; and, what is still more extraordinary, almost as fast as those two districts which enjoy the benefit of the steamers round the Lakes and on the Mississippi, and Illinois, of the Canal, the Michigan Central, and Chicago and Galena Railroads. The table gives the population and the density at which each division would arrive in 1860, at the same rate of progress, in round numbers, as for the last ten years. But it is not reasonabla to suppose that the same rate will continue in the two districts which in 1853 will be as populous as Indiana. Their land sells at high prices already, and the opening of the new channels may divert emigration 15 which would otherwise have settled there. An addition of two-thirds their present numbers to these two districts is quite as much as can safely be calculated on, while the thinly settled districts may be expected to, at least, double their rate of progress, from the influence of the railroad. As the other five districts will all be greatly benefited by their connection with the road, it is not too much to expect that they also will double their rate, and increase, say eighty per cent., in the next ten years. Proceeding on these data, we shall have the following estimate of the population of Illinois for 1860 : Districts. Rate of Inc. Pop. 1860. To sq. mile. Quincy and Chicago, 66 525,225 40.87 Dixon, Danville and Vandalia, - 240 640,009 29.67 Other five, 80 633,620 30.2 Total of Illinois, 110.4 1,798,854 32.47 Suppose this estimate to be realized, and these three districts of Dixon, Danville and Vandalia, will offer still stronger inducements to the emigrant than any other portion of the West. They would still have a population less dense than the average of the State of Illinois, but not less fertile, nor less accessible. Land would still be cheaper in Illinois than in Ohio, or in Indiana, because the settlement would still be much less dense than in those two States. Ohio increasing at thirty per cent, will have 64.47 to the square mile in 1860. Indiana, if she increases at forty-five per cent, only, and there are obvious reasons why the rate should be greater, will have 42.47 to the square mile : Illinois only 32.47. The older States east of Illinois, including Ohio and Indiana, are therefore full, and emigrants will pass through them, and by them, to Illinois, to land which is both cheaper and better, for the same reasons that they have done so heretofore. But, it may be asked, will not a larger portion of the additional popu- lation coming into the valley of the Mississippi, diverge into the new States, and so be drawn off from Illinois ? Certainly not to the inaccessible portions of those States ; because a bushel of corn costing six cents, which can be carried for thirty cents to a market where it will sell for thirty-six cents, is not worth so much as a bushel of corn costing twenty cents, which can be carried for ten cents to the same market, and sold for the same price of thirty-six cents. A saving of twenty cents per bushel on the transportation of your corn is the saving of ten dollars on the crop of an acre, reckoned at fifty 16 bushels ; and this sum is twenty per cent, interest on a first cost of fifty dollars per acre. It will be better economy, therefore, taking the article of corn as a criterion, to buy land in the south part of the Danville district, at fifty dollars the acre, when the price, by competition for it, shall have been raised so high, and you have a double track railroad within twelve miles of your farm, than it would have been to buy the same land, at a dollar and a quarter per acre, when there was no practicable outlet for your produce. But will not railroads be built opening up these vast tracts of unoc- cupied land, so as to bring them into the market ? Doubtless to some extent, but in a very limited proportion to the whole surface. It is a much more promising enterprise to build railroads through regions having already from twenty to fifty inhabitants to the square mile, where the way travel is to be depended upon, than to make your road through uninhabited wastes, and wait for population and business to follow it. If, however, the through travel of a long route is thought a more desir- able object, there is no new route connecting the Lakes with the Gulf of Mexico, or the northeastern States with the western, or southwest- ern, that will run through Northern Michigan, or Wisconsin, or Iowa, or Missouri. The railroads built in these States, then, for the next ten or fifteen years, will be for the local business and travel of sections where business and population are already collected ; gradually, of course, extending their sphere of action as population advances, but not rushing suddenly beyond it. In these accessible sections of the four States spoken of, railroads will be built as they ought to be, because the population and business either are, or very soon will be, sufficient to support railroads profit- ably. But these accessible sections do not now, and will not for twenty years at least, if ever, offer the inducement of cheaper land than Illi- nois, especially the Dixon, Danville, and Vandalia districts. We shall the better realize the certainty of these views, if we divide each of the four younger northwestern States into two portions, the smaller portion in each State that of convenient access and compara- tively dense population ; the larger portion that at a distance from the great channels of communication, and as yet but very sparsely settled. The contrast is very striking, and deserves to be carefully studied by those investigating the probabilities of Western railroad enterprises. The State of Michigan is first to be considered, because it is nearest to the dense masses of population in the northeast, and to the Atlantic ports, through which emigrants arrive, in passing from the old world 17 to cheap land at the west. In the southeastern part of the State is the Key to the intercourse between the basin of the three upper Lakes, and that of the lower Lakes and the St. Lawrence ; d,s well as through these to the Mississippi, on the one hand, and the northeastern hive upon the other. The great current of emigration, which builds up cities and States, passes ^hrough this section at Detroit. The marked points along the line of tnis current will aid us to measure its influence. They are, with their population in 1840 and 1850, as follows : 1840. 1850. New York, - - - 312,712 515,394 Buffalo, - - - 18,213 40,266 Detroit, .--- 9,102 21,057 Chicago, 4,479 28,269 St. Louis, - - - 16,409 82,744 From Detroit, the Michigan Central Railroad extends to the west, and if we take the first four counties on this road, with the first three south, and the first two north of them, we have together nine counties, with much more than half the population of the State. These counties, so favorably situated to receive emigrants, and to forward produce, will of course continue to prosper and increase ; but those in search of cheap lands will not stop here, because the density of settlement, and the price of land, are both much higher than in Illinois, and will be so for the next twenty years. In the distant part of the State, cheap land can be found, but not more eligible than that of Illinois. The next State on the highway of the Lakes, after passing Michigan, is Wisconsin ; the division of whose area into two parts, the one having a population about thirty times as dense as the other, I have already noticed. The denser portion has also increased three times as rapidly as the remainder, and is just beginning to enjoy the advantages of railroad communication. It has more than twice the average density of population (19.97) belonging to the Dixon, Danville and Vandalia districts, (8.72,) and will certainly continue for more than twenty years more densely settled, and with land at higher prices, than those three districts of Il- linois. If we cross Illinois by the canal, and the Illinois river, a cheap and convenient navigation, we next arrive at Missouri, a State centrally situated, and commanding a large share of western trade. She naturally receives the vast multitudes of emigrants from Europe arriving at New Orleans, and has her choice of avenues to the markets of the world, down the Mississippi by magnificent and numerous steamboats ; or, across the 3 18 country to the east, by the various channels recently opened, or yet t be completed. The longest watercourse in the world, the Missouri, hurrying its turbid tribute from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of Mexico, passes transversely from the northwestern angle of the State, directly through its centre. Upon both sides of this river, from the mouth of the Nodaway to the Mississippi, there are twenty-three coun- ties, having less than a sixth of the surface, but nearly half the popula- tion of the State. These twenty-three counties have 31.76 inhabitants to the square mile, and will be more densely peopled than the three dis- tricts with which I compare them, till long after those districts have ac- quired a density greater than that of Ohio. The State of Iowa remains to be considered. She is still further than the rest from the sources of emigration and from available markets. Eigh- teen counties in the southeastern part of this State, with less than a fifth of her territory, have a population twelve times as dense as the re- mainder, increasing and likely to increase with great rapidity. The lands of these eighteen counties are, and for many years will be, more densely settled than those of the three districts in question. These particulars appear more distinctly in the following table, in which I have first divided the population of each State between the densely and the sparsely settled portions of territory, and showing the inhabitants to each square mile in each portion ; and have then shown the density of population, at a probable rate of increase in 1860, sup- posing the increase to be twice as rapid in the sparsely settled as in the densely settled counties. Division of population between the more accessible and the less acces- sible portions of the four younger northwestern States for 1850; and for 1860, at certain assumed rates of increase. Sq. miles. To sq. mile. In. pr. ct. Sq. mile in 1860. Michigan, 9 counties 4,420 49.21 50 73.82 " 23 " 51,823 3.56 100 7.12 Wisconsin, 20 14,054 19.97 200 59.91 " 10 39,870 .67 400 3.35 Missouri, 23 " 10,350 31.76 50 47.64 " ' 78 " 57,030 6.20 100 12.40 Iowa, 18 9,000 14.80 125 33.30 " 33 41,914 1.17 250 4.09 The denser counties of these States will hold their land much higher in 1860 than the Dixon, Danville and Vandalia districts in Illinois. Into the sparsely settled counties, railroads can hardly begin to run pro- 19 fitably until after 1860. Illinois will continue to offer the largest supply of comparatively cheap, accessible, fertile, and in all respects eligible land, until long after the prices of land along the line of her great rail- road have risen beyond the average, at the official valuation, of the lands of Ohio, at the present day. The aggregates of these dense portions together, and of the sparse regions, are as follows : Portions dense enough to support Railroads. States. Sq. Miles. Pop. in 1850. Pop. in 1860. Inc. in 10 years Michigan, 4,420 217,529 326,293 50 Wisconsin, 14,054 278,535 835,605 200 Missouri, 10,350 328,695 493,042 50 Iowa, 9,000 133,165 299,621 125 Michigan, 51,823 184,512 369,024 Wisconsin, 39,870 27,003 135,015 Missouri, 57,030 353,749 707,498 Iowa, 41,914 59,082 206,787 36,824 959,924 1,954,561 104 Per square mile in 1850, 25.32. In 1860, 51.15. Portions too sparsely setttled to support Railroads. 100 400 100 250 190,637 624,346 1,418,324 127 Per square mile in 1850, 3.27. In 1860, 7.44. Having gone over all the Northwestern States separately, I will now recapitulate, and give the total for each State, with the population for 1860, at the rate of increase assumed. Population of the Northwestern States for 1860, at the rates of increase assumed in the foregoing remarks with the number per square mile. States. Sq. miles. Pop. in 1850. Pr. sq. m. Pop. in 1860. Pr. sq.m. In.pr.ct. Ohio, 39,964 1,981,940 49.59 2,576,522 64.47 30.0 Indiana, 33,809 990,258 29.29 1,435,874 42.47 45.0 Illinois, 55,405 855,384 15.45 1,798,854 32.47 110.4 129,178 3,827,582 29.63 5,811,250 44.99 51.8 Michigan, 56,243 402,041 7.15 695,317 12.36 72.94 Wisconsin, 53,924 305,538 5.65 970,620 18.00 220.95 Missouri, 67,380 682,044 10.12 1,200,540 17.82 76.02 Iowa, 50,914 192,247 3.77 506,408 9.94 163.42 228,461 1,581,870 6.92 3,372,885 14.76 113.2 20 RECAPITULATION. Pop. in 1850. Pr. sq. m. Pop.i?il8