s 14.GS: CIR141 c. 1 John a; Harrison STATE OF ILLINOIS DWIGHT H. GREEN, Governor DEPARTMENT OF REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION FRANK G. THOMPSON, Director ILLINOIS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY LIBRARY DIVISION OF THE STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY M. M. LEIGHTON, Chief URBANA CIRCULAR NO. 141 LONG-TERM MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY By WALTER H. VOSKUIL Reprint of Special Bulletin Number Six University of Illinois College of Commerce and Business Administration Bureau of Economic and Business Research PRINTED BY AUTHORITY OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS URBANA, ILLINOIS 1948 STATE OF ILLINOIS D WIGHT H. GREEN, Governor DEPARTMENT OF REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION FRANK G. THOMPSON. Director DIVISION OF THE STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY M. M. LEIGHTON. Chief URBANA CIRCULAR NO. 1 LONG-TERM MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY By WALTER H. VOSKUIL Reprint of Special Bulletin Number Six University of Illinois College of Commerce and Business Administration Bureau of Economic and Business Research PRINTED BY AUTHORITY OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS URBANA, ILLINOIS 1948 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Introduction 7 Basic Industrial Materials in the Upper Mississippi Valley 9 Basic Industries in the Chicago Industrial Area ... 12 Steel 13 Coke and Coal 20 Liquid Fuels in the Economy of the Upper Mississippi Valley 22 Food Supply 26 Summary 29 Appendix 30 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2012 with funding from University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign http://archive.org/details/longtermmanufact141vosk INTRODUCTION A major concern in the foreseeable future is the creation and maintenance of productive employ- ment. This is an inseparable part of our modern industrial economy and not a special problem limited to a temporary postwar transitional period, even though that period may present the problem in un- usually acute form. With the necessity for employment and for busi- ness opportunity goes also the laudable desire for profits and good wages. These two can come only from high production (a large volume of output) and high productivity (a high output per worker). A high output per worker means a large share of goods for each ; and this, after all, makes for a high standard of living. Manufacturing, transportation and communica- tion, marketing and merchandising, construction, power supply, and the service industries today afford the largest opportunities for the creation of productive employment. Productive employment is something more than activity for a wage; it involves the creation of values. The goal of productive employment is to achieve a high level of output, through intelligently directed coordination of men, machines, and mate- rials. Only then is it possible to have a high stand- ard of living, a high purchasing power in the community, and a sound basis for employment opportunity. Modern technology, which pervades the entire gamut of our productive economy, is actually re- stricting the employment opportunities in agricul- ture and mining. Mechanization has so changed American agriculture that between 1915 and 1945 the tractor, the truck, and the automobile eliminated the need for the labor of thousands of men. Since 1900 the productivity of the adult farmer has risen from an index of 100 to 154. In such important segments of the mineral industry as coal mining, the output of the workers has nearly doubled since the turn of the century. The natural increase in farm and mine population must, in order to seek lucrative employment, turn elsewhere for oppor- tunities. The high productive possibilities of modern technology, if fully utilized and intelligently directed to meet human wants and desires, will find their greatest productive outlet in the manufacture of consumer goods, directly or indirectly. Accompany- ing this trend will be a corresponding increase in trade, transportation, and services, with increasing employment opportunities in these activities. Role of the Basic Industries The productivity of manufacturing, both as a way of making a living and as a means of providing each of us with the multiplicity of necessities, con- veniences, and luxuries which we enjoy, depends upon suitable industrial materials, the application of power, and the presence of technological skills. Given these three factors, we have the means not only to high productivity but also to an abundant variety and a wealth of selection in consumer goods. Basic industrial materials from which an array of manufacturing activities branch out are: (1) steel; (2) manufactured fuels — oil products; (3) manu- factured fuels — coke; (4) food grains; (5) meat products; (6) fibers; and (7) forest products. Sustained productivity in all phases of manufac- turing activity, and in all steps of the manufacturing process, is based upon the continued functioning of those industries which supply the basic industrial raw materials. BASIC INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY The raw materials of industrialism upon which the diverse and extended manufacturing activities of the Upper Mississippi Valley depend are produced in one or a few localities within the region and supplemented to some extent by shipments of these basic materials into the area. The Chicago district is almost solely the source of pig iron and steel, although a small contribution comes from Granite City. Petroleum products are produced, in the main, in three districts — Chicago, Wood River (below Alton), and southeastern Illinois. Food products, such as meat and flour, are available at convenient points in the area. The Chicago industrial area is a leader, or at least a producer, in five of the basic industries: steel, oil products, coke, meat products, and flour. This industrial district is unique in the Upper Mis- sissippi Valley in that it is the focus of industries that manufacture industrial raw materials and producers' goods. These industries, in turn, make many of the producers' goods for manufacturing establishments not only in Chicago itself but in Map 1. Industrial Areas in the Upper Mississippi Valley with 2,500 or More Wage Earners, 1939 Map 2. Income Received in the Upper Mississippi Valley, 1939, Distributed by Counties (in thousands) other manufacturing cities in the Upper Missis- sippi Valley. Because of this industrial interdependence of the entire Upper Mississippi Valley, and also because of Chicago's key position as the site of the basic industries which serve as gateways to more than 230 types of industries in the Upper Mississippi Valley, the starting point of any study of the indus- trial possibilities and future of Chicago and its associated manufacturing cities in the Upper Mis- sissippi Valley is an examination of the basic in- dustries, for the purpose of determining the status of those elements that are necessary for their assured continuity. Specifically, these basic industries should be ex- amined as parts of the structure of the Chicago industrial district. Also a study should be made of the growth and changes within the district, the raw materials used by the basic industries of the district 10 University of Illinois and the adequacy of their supply, the changing in- ternal structure of the Chicago district as it has been affected by the rise or decline in importance among the basic industries, the trends in concentration or decentralization, and the rise of new products or changes in the older established industries. Such an examination, however, is of value only as a means to an end. What we are really trying to determine is the key role of the basic industries in the creation of industries for the manufacture of consumer goods. If we understand the function of the Chicago basic industries, we are then prepared to plan against future eventualities, e.g., provide for alternative sources of raw materials if it seems that existing sources may cease to be adequate, and promote new industries that are feasible in this economic area. The industrial empire for which Chicago's basic industries supply the raw materials of manufacture extends over nine states or parts of states. This is illustrated in Map 1, which shows the Census distri- bution of leading industrial areas in the Upper Mis- sissippi Valley in 1939. This distribution represents the pattern of industrial development, the resultant of various and varying economic forces during a period of vigorous industrial growth. The war years subsequent to 1939 did increase the level of out- put of industrial production but did not change the pattern substantially. A wide variety of enter- prises is located in these several districts, to which the basic industries of Chicago supply such mate- rials as foundry coke, pig iron, primary steel shapes, steel wire, prepared liquid fuels, etc. About 75 per cent of the wage earners in manufacturing in this economic region are outside the Chicago industrial district. Manufacturing Opportunity and Purchasing Power The opportunity for manufacturing outlets depends ultimately on purchasing power, and purchasing power is estimated by multiplying the number of people earning incomes by the average level of in- dividual income. In the prewar year of 1939, purchasing power among principal income groups in Illinois and the adjacent economic territory was nearly 20 per cent of the national total. This income was concentrated in a relatively small area. I IE I $1,275 AND OVER 150 TO $1,274 3 $850 TO $1,149 JNDER $850 NITED STATES $ I, 200 -J 1 Map. 3. Per Capita Income of the Civilian Population, by States, 1946 Long-term Manufacturing Opportunities in the Upper Mississippi Valley Map 4. Percentage Increase in Total Income Payments, by States, 1940-1946 Map 2 shows the county distribution, for the Upper Mississippi Valley, of combined incomes derived from selected types of payment: (a) wages and salaries in manufacturing; (b) wages and sal- aries in wholesale trade; (c) wages and salaries in retail trade; (d) wages and salaries in mining; and (e) farm income. Although these items do not represent all income payments within the area, they do account for ap- proximately 80 per cent of the income, and hence provide a reasonably good index of purchasing power. It is evident from the map that, aside from the large income payments in the urban centers, there is a belt of remarkably high purchasing power in rural Illinois, Indiana, southern Wisconsin, southern Min- nesota, Iowa, and portions of Missouri. This pro- ductive urban-rural area, of which purchasing power is one measure, is the potential local market for industrial consumer goods. The favorable economic position of Illinois in the economy of the nation is shown in two maps re- produced from the Survey of Current Business, for August, 1947. Map 3 shows per capita income pay- ments in 1946 for each state, including mustering- out payments, family-allowance payments, allot- ments of pay to individuals by military personnel, cash terminal leave payments, and state govern- ment bonuses to veterans of World War II. Map 4 shows for each state the percentage increase in total income payments from 1940 to 1946. An examination of these two maps shows that the higher percentage changes in the southeastern and southwestern states in the period 1940-1946 did not overcome the leading economic position of the Upper Mississippi Valley states. When the dis- torted production pattern brought on by the war has come to an end and a peacetime economy again functions, the level of income payments in Illinois and its neighboring states will be sustained more easily than in those states and areas which were heavily stimulated by war requirements. BASIC INDUSTRIES IN THE CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL AREA The Chicago industrial area 1 comprises Cook, Du Page, Kane, Lake, and Will counties in Illinois, and Lake County in Indiana. Within this area there is a wide variety of industries and a considerable de- gree of segregation of industrial groups. Table I presents data for the principal basic industries. In Chicago itself there are large meat-packing establishments. Toward the south and east, along the lake shore in Illinois and Indiana, are the heavy steel industries. In the western and southwestern part of the area are steel fabricating industries, machinery, light industries, etc. About one-fifth of Chicago's manufacturing activity is concerned with the production of raw materials for further proces- sing, fuels, and basic food supplies. Historical de- 1 The term "industrial area," as used by the Census, sig- nifies an area having as its nucleus an important manufac- turing city and comprising the county in which the city is located, together with any adjoining county or counties in which there is a great development of manufacturing industries. velopment, as well as geographic factors, accounts for the present-day distribution of industry within the area. More than half of the manufacturing activity of the United States is concentrated in 97 counties, which have been grouped by the Bureau of the Census into 33 industrial areas. An area is defined as having had not less than 40,000 factory workers when these groupings were first established in 1929. Among these industrial areas, Chicago is exceeded only by New York and has held second place since 1899, when it displaced Philadelphia. In Map 5 are shown the industrial areas located in northern and eastern United States and the comparative trend of growth since 1899. Although the position of New York and Chicago in first and second place re- mained unchanged, among the remaining 28 indus- trial districts there has been a relative gain in position, principally in those districts bordering the Great Lakes. /n '""2>v n 9 #;Youngstown A |ientog> rV" y0RK clT Y (I O Pittsburgh OReodrng-JNEW ^.wheeling